Early Spring Cutoff Low, DST Weekend 2020

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Early Spring Cutoff Low, DST Weekend 2020

Postby sd » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:34 am

Weather update Sunday Monring, 3/8/2020

Looks like a colorful day and aesthetically vibrant.

Very thick/deep marine layer (6K) Super unstable with freezing levels around 6K for a temp spread near spontaneous instability, so we will definitely have plenty of development, but if you don’t like the weather, it will change. It is not a static day.

The channel winds are lighter than yesterday and still somewhat from the SE, but the direction clocks around to come more from the south to SW with increasing altitude, and also increasing in velocity with altitude up to about 10 knots at 6K

I suspect the day will iterate, dawning clear (locally) followed by early overdevelopment, then raising cloudbase later in the day?

Extreme low tide today around 4 pm

Go to Know conditions (bring your camera)
The cutoff low meanders toward us on Monday than drifts south just offshore.
Monday looks interesting but more wind, possible rain then even more wind on Tuesday with the most rain late Tuesday and Wednesday before going post frontal on Thursday??

Friday morning (3/6/2020) outlook for the extended weekend.

Go to Know… Colorful with periods of gray and possibly some rain. Good lapse rate under the clouds should equate to smooth lift if you can stay dry and find a little surface heating.

Today, Friday Santa Barbara starts our somewhat flat down low, but a good lapse rate above 3Kish. The Ojai lapse rate looks stellar today. The 6K temperature then plummets over the next 24 hours to provide a locally (Santa Barbara) robust lapse rate, but also a lot of cloud potential at multiple levels (both down low and also higher up around 15 to 25Kish) with potential drizzle and light rain on Saturday.

There is some wind up higher, but the skew-t profile is showing a sharp capping inversion kink around 6Kish so don’t expect the wind to pull down. Locally the base wind is forecasted to be single digits in the mountains, however, the marine forecast is calling for some breeze this afternoon.

The conditions will likely flux with some colorful flying and periods that don’t work due to OD and precipitation. Typically, a strong lapse rate and even heating equate to smooth lift under the clouds. It will take a little heating to make it work, but not much.

Sunday looks drier than Saturday, then a cutoff low hangs around pumping moisture up through the week, so there is potential for a lot of colorful flying opportunities.
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