2nd weekend in October

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2nd weekend in October

Postby sd » Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm

Friday night look at the 2nd weekend in October.

Friday looked like a good day to fly back to SB from Ojai. The Santa Anna event fades on Saturday with onshore flow returning on Sunday.

The better lapse rate for the coastal range was Friday, fading through the weekend with the return of the onshore flow. Santa Barbara will likely work okish with a weak lapse rate. A better lapse rate in Ojai but not stellar. A robust lapse rate with light base wind at Pine, stronger on Saturday but still ok on Sunday. Note: despite the light base wind at Pine, there will likely be robust local draw due to the robust lapse rate.

Top of the lift at Pine looks to be about 10K both Saturday and Sunday with stronger lift on Saturday. The wind appears to be light in most locals. 10K might be marginal for connecting back to the front range, but you might be able to play for a boost over the Watershed Divide Convergence on Saturday (which will likely be somewhat committal?) which should be enough to get to the beach. By Sunday the better play is to reach east if you can get to the front range and work toward Fillmore.

As noted earlier, the lapse rate in SB looks okish trending weaker, but likely good enough to get around on Saturday, then weaker on Sunday. Logistics for Pine are easier than Ojai (no permit needed) and the lapse rate is better so Pine would be my preference, but I wouldn’t bother trying to get to the desert. I think the better play is to do some laps in the fishbowl and then go for max altitude and reach out for the front range (and possibly the beach on Saturday).

Writing this report as per request from Brian, who was inquiring about Figueroa, but I don’t feel qualified to give constructive input on that option. I’m in Houston until next weekend so my perception is academic without an actual hands-on feel. If you can only budge one day, Saturday looks like the better option, but Sunday should work also…

Look forward to reading about Logan and Chris’s flight after going OTB from the VOR today?
Attachments
nam_2019_10-11_18z_for_pine_ss_12_21z.png
Pine SS Skew-t for 2 PM Saturday
nam_2019_10-11_18z_for_sb_12_21z.png
Santa Barbara Skew-t for 2 PM Saturday
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