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Postby sd » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:25 am

Tuesday morning update:

Not looking as good as my first glance at the forecast yesterday (Monday) morning, but still looks like a potentially exciting day. Windy dot com is calling more wind from the west around Point Conception and less blockage? So... the window to get to the T-Hill might be narrower. Should be easier to go downwind toward Ojai (looks like a wall of headwind from the NE after Ojai), but the goal for the day is to land at Elings.

Blowing hard OTB (from the NNE) this morning at 8 am, but Windy is calling for it to block by 11ish. The lower and mid-level (around 2Kish) wind around Point Conception pushes past Goleta into SB, but it doesn’t look like it makes it all the way to Carpinteria. The mid-level velocities are forecasted to be around 8 to 10ish from the west (over the T-Hill), but there will likely be some locally stronger venturis? Up higher the wind turns more north, so the tactic is to get high and go over the lower level onshore draw.
The lower and mid-level wind might affect the T-Hill. It appears to get stronger and push further east into the afternoon. Would likely be easier to slide east with the block, but if we want to get to the T-Hill, it might be better to glide out earlier before the west builds?

The lapse rate looks good to locally strong. Only getting into the 50s to low 60s on the surface, freezing level is below 6K. With the cold airmass there will be some locally strong temperature differentials as wind sheltered areas heat above the average. High pressure, some wind, and strong temperature differential don’t typically equate to fat smooth thermals, so expect some stronger small cores?

I’ll be heading up from Carpinteria around 9ish if anyone wants to carpool…
Monday morning look at Tuesday.

Looks like a stellar day to start the 2019 new year.
Relatively easy to get to the T-Hill from the mountains (not beginner weather, but novice with coaching)? Because…
The lapse rate is strong (due to a cold airmass), and the local wind aloft is from the NNW (which is one of the reasons we have a cold airmass),
So.. the altitude should be adequate, and we should have a tailwind gliding from the mountains toward the ocean (if you leave high from the western side of the course).

Should be blowing strong Santa Anna from the NE through LA and the Santa Clara River Valley, but we are protected and not in the drain path. Our local forecast is calling for typical draw from the SW down low feeding the robust convection flowing up our south facing (solar energy collecting) Santa Barbara coastal range.
Don’t recommend the Nuthouse to get back to SB. It should be plenty soarable but will likely be a quartering headwind toward SB despite the strong east flow further east?
Locally, the wind should block below ridge line up through 5Kish, drawing onshore from the SW down lower and starting to turn offshore (from NNW) above ridgeline. Up higher (6Kish) the velocity increases from the NNW (15 mph) which might equate to some sheer turb, but if you can punch up into it and hold on, the tailwind can dramatically increase your southbound glide and get you over most of the lower lever onshore draw (headwind toward the T-Hill)?

There should be an early inversion with temps below freezing in Ojai and near freezing in Carp, but the inversion should break quickly and be soarable earlyish (10 am?). With a robust lapse rate, no need to launch high. The ridgeline launches will be more exposed to flow from the north, but I suspect they will block mid-day. The lower launches are more protected from the north flow and should block earlier.
The soaring window is pretty good for a short day, so you should have time for a lap or two before final glide to goal?
Dress warm. The temperature is near freezing at the top of the thermals and still chilly down low. Mid-day out of the wind it should be nice on the ground but bring a jacket if you plan to be out when the sun gets low as it will cool off quickly.

Disclaimer. I’m a bit rusty and haven’t had my finger on the pulse. With the partial government shutdown some the stuff I typically look at isn’t easily available, so I got most of my perception from reviewing the forecast discussion and Windy.com. Didn’t look at the skew-Ts or the Winds Aloft Forecast.

PS: don’t know if anyone has flown tandem from the mountains t o the T-Hill on New Years Day? But it might be possible tomorrow?
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