Early July Heat Wave

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Early July Heat Wave

Postby sd » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:11 pm

Saturday morning update

SB might work, but Ronny can get us through the gate at Oat. Running a little late. 9:15 departure from Carpinteria for a 11:30 launch? https://share.delorme.com/TomTruax

Friday night update for the weekend
Forecast seems to be on track as per previous review. Pilots got into the mid 7s at the thermal factory on Friday after launching from the Skyport (it blew north most of the day at ridge line), but not sure why they weren’t able to do better along Power Line Ridge before flushing out?

Ojai continues to look like a sure thing, but I don’t expect anyone has gotten a permit? SB might work for an early launch before the marine air moves and drives the inversion up to a problematic level. Oat might be an option. (I can’t get an early enough start to beat the heat for a Nuthouse hike). I left text messages with Ronny and Mark to see if we can get through the gate.

If we do launch Oat, the conditions look good for an early run westbound, but will likely turn and head back east once the lower level marine air starts to pull in. The inversion is low in the morning, but starts rising later in the day. 11 am launch looks optimal, so we would need to be leaving Carpinteria around 8:30 to be in Fillmore at 9:15ish?

Thursday mid-day look at the coming heat wave event. Friday, Saturday.

Thursday is a pleasant day her in Carpinteria, but the forecast is for big change overnight.

Friday is currently forecasted to be the peak heat day with perhaps the best altitudes, but maybe not the best day for open distance XC due to lower level flow from the east on the east end of the course. Altitude continues to look impressive on Saturday. The flow from the east starts to give way to a typical push from the west, so it might be a better day to fly eastbound, but the lower level lapse rate doesn’t look as good near the coast (Santa Barbara) compared to Friday.

Altitude on the front range looks as good as inland (12-13K) so it is not your typical July weather. Ojai looks like a sure bet with light wind from the east early Friday then light and variable later in the day. Santa Barbara has some local flow from the north on Friday, but hopefully not too strong to get off on the south side. The marine inversion on Friday is squashed down to about 1K, so you should be able to work above it. Might need to slow down along Castle Ridge if you get low, but it should be a race course once you get to Power Line Ridge.
Saturday is a bit more problematic from the Santa Barbara launches with the marine layer starting to rebound. You might be able to launch high and go OTB to avoid the ocean air. The flow on Saturday is more from the SW, so if you can get out of the gate from SB, then records might fall? Still looks good inland with just a little protection from the ocean.
By Sunday, the marine layer has reestablished in SB. Pine looks promising with flow from the west. On Friday and Saturday, the upper flow is from the south, but only up at max altitude. Down below 10K it is light on Friday and a bit from the SW on Saturday.

I’d recommend flying both days (Friday and Saturday). 10-13K along the front range is a treat. For the newer pilots, Ojai looks simpler and a sure thing, but the logistics are more involved (getting to launch). The seasoned pilots might prefer launching from SB. Lots of other launch should work good also, but as noted before, the front range should be working as good as the inland desert, so… I’d recommend starting somewhere along the front range.

PS. Be prepared for hot temperatures on the ground. Well above triple digits.
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