2nd November Weekend

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2nd November Weekend

Postby sd » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:57 am

Saturday Dawn look at the weekend

Somewhat seasonable conditions, but again, my confidence in the forecast more than a day out is poor. My last couple of attempts undervalued the days.

Saturday looks like the better day when compared to Sunday. Monday is a different type of a day as we get swept by the dry tail of a front passing to our north. There are intermittent high clouds through the weekend, more so on Sunday.

On Saturday, the lapse rate looks respectable down low (but not strong), with an inversion around maybe 2500 in the morning, then the top of the lift rises to perhaps the low 3s midday and almost 4K late in the day. Ojai looks similar, so no need to complicate the logistics. Any low clouds should burn off but there are some high clouds around 30K.

There is increasing wind aloft from the west building to well over 100 knots at 30K by Sunday, but on Saturday and Sunday the strong upper level wind doesn’t appear to be mixing down to our soaring altitudes. Saturday is starting out with a little north at ridgeline that backs down during the day (despite the increasing wind up higher). I don’t expect the early north venturi flow at ridgeline to be a factor. The base wind for our soaring altitudes is in the low to mid-single digits on Saturday. At dawn on Saturday the mid-channel buoy is calm with the typical 15-20 knots wrapping around Point Conception.

The forecast is calling for even less low-level wind on Sunday even though the wind at 30K climbs to 130 mph. Perhaps because the lapse rate is weaker so there will be even less vertical mixing? Thicker high clouds on Sunday.

Monday starts out more of the same, but by midday the lapse rate is getting stronger and the wind is picking up as a front passes to our north.

The ocean is forecast to stir some this weekend so the local cliffs might work during the peak of the day. Low Tide is late morning, but it’s not very low so by 2 PM prime time at the cliffs the tide is coming in.
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