Start of the 2017 World Series
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:26 pmSee daily post flight summaries for
[Monday] [Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday]
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8:35 Tuesday morning meet time at East Beach in Santa Barbara for an 8:40 to 8:45 roll to be at Nordhoff High School at 9:45 which should get us to Nordhoff Peak Launch before 11 for an 11:30 launch… with a bus stop in Carpinteria on the way. Leon will meet us at the high school with the gate permit. On school days we usually leave vehicles across the street at the church. Peter Richner is arranging crew. Mitch Riley, is bringing the Eagle van. Tom Truax, and hopefully Ben Jordan plus other are on board. We expect to fly back to SB, so you don't want to leave your vehicle in Ojai unless you are running late.
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Tuesday Morning Update:
Lot of similarities compared to yesterday (Monday), but some differences also. A little more katabatic push last night, so not as much morning cold air pooling, so the day is starting out hotter, and is expected to get a few degrees warmer than Monday in places. Earlier forecast were calling for Monday to be the peak wind day, but it now looks like today has more wind on the east end of the fishbowl, however, the wind hopefully be lower level in the drain paths (some drain path venturi channels are blowing over 50 this morning). The forecast does call for it to back off some later in the day. It is blowing harder down the Santa Clara River this morning, but the forecast is calling more lower level on-shore flow on the west end the course, and that flow goes higher than yesterday.
Wednesday now looks more like Sunday’s forecast for Tuesday. Should be good in both SB and Ojai tomorrow (Wednesday). The lapse rate does relax some on Thursday, but the east wind is also greatly diminished.
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Monday night look at the work week
Santa Anna winds peaked on Monday but will persist through Tuesday. The Monday forecast soundings where calling for some wind in the mid to upper teens in places. We are talking about the front range course, not the Santa Clara River, which was blowing harder with gust over 30 in places.
The lapse rate is good, mainly because the surface temperatures are hitting record highs. Over 100 degrees in many places with just a little protection from the ocean including Monday reports like 106 at the Camarillo Airport at 5 PM.
The surface temperatures are driven up by compression heating of the descending (katabatic) high pressure airmass (5-1/2 degrees F/1000 Ft). The soundings appear to indicate peak wind in a layer between 3 and 6K with lighter flow above that.
The Tuesday forecast is calling for continued record hot surface temperatures and a little less wind, but we do expect some wind at launch and on course. Expecting less east wind further west with some light on-shore flow pulling in down low toward the west end as the day ages.
Not really a record setting day because you can’t go east past Ojai, and there is on-shore flow to contend with later in the day on the west end of the course. I think the probability of getting back to SB from Ojai is high. The milk run shouldn’t take long, and the day should work late, so the big question is… then what…
The switch seems to start late Tuesday, but the switch kicks in more on Wednesday. The west end of the course had some onshore flow down low on Monday, which should become a little more each day. By Wednesday, Santa Barbara is mostly west and Ojai is only light east. The surface temperature cools but the lapse rate looks good all week with no capping inversion, so max altitudes will vary with the terrain height. By Thursday, the onshore flow is reaching the Ojai Valley in the afternoon and the lapse rate fades some but still isn’t inverted. The lapse rate in SB gets a little weaker on Wednesday but still ok, then on Thursday, it looks week below ridgeline, but not inverted, so you might be able to claw up by strategically benching back?
[Monday] [Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday]
_____________________________
8:35 Tuesday morning meet time at East Beach in Santa Barbara for an 8:40 to 8:45 roll to be at Nordhoff High School at 9:45 which should get us to Nordhoff Peak Launch before 11 for an 11:30 launch… with a bus stop in Carpinteria on the way. Leon will meet us at the high school with the gate permit. On school days we usually leave vehicles across the street at the church. Peter Richner is arranging crew. Mitch Riley, is bringing the Eagle van. Tom Truax, and hopefully Ben Jordan plus other are on board. We expect to fly back to SB, so you don't want to leave your vehicle in Ojai unless you are running late.
________________________
Tuesday Morning Update:
Lot of similarities compared to yesterday (Monday), but some differences also. A little more katabatic push last night, so not as much morning cold air pooling, so the day is starting out hotter, and is expected to get a few degrees warmer than Monday in places. Earlier forecast were calling for Monday to be the peak wind day, but it now looks like today has more wind on the east end of the fishbowl, however, the wind hopefully be lower level in the drain paths (some drain path venturi channels are blowing over 50 this morning). The forecast does call for it to back off some later in the day. It is blowing harder down the Santa Clara River this morning, but the forecast is calling more lower level on-shore flow on the west end the course, and that flow goes higher than yesterday.
Wednesday now looks more like Sunday’s forecast for Tuesday. Should be good in both SB and Ojai tomorrow (Wednesday). The lapse rate does relax some on Thursday, but the east wind is also greatly diminished.
__________________________________
Monday night look at the work week
Santa Anna winds peaked on Monday but will persist through Tuesday. The Monday forecast soundings where calling for some wind in the mid to upper teens in places. We are talking about the front range course, not the Santa Clara River, which was blowing harder with gust over 30 in places.
The lapse rate is good, mainly because the surface temperatures are hitting record highs. Over 100 degrees in many places with just a little protection from the ocean including Monday reports like 106 at the Camarillo Airport at 5 PM.
The surface temperatures are driven up by compression heating of the descending (katabatic) high pressure airmass (5-1/2 degrees F/1000 Ft). The soundings appear to indicate peak wind in a layer between 3 and 6K with lighter flow above that.
The Tuesday forecast is calling for continued record hot surface temperatures and a little less wind, but we do expect some wind at launch and on course. Expecting less east wind further west with some light on-shore flow pulling in down low toward the west end as the day ages.
Not really a record setting day because you can’t go east past Ojai, and there is on-shore flow to contend with later in the day on the west end of the course. I think the probability of getting back to SB from Ojai is high. The milk run shouldn’t take long, and the day should work late, so the big question is… then what…
The switch seems to start late Tuesday, but the switch kicks in more on Wednesday. The west end of the course had some onshore flow down low on Monday, which should become a little more each day. By Wednesday, Santa Barbara is mostly west and Ojai is only light east. The surface temperature cools but the lapse rate looks good all week with no capping inversion, so max altitudes will vary with the terrain height. By Thursday, the onshore flow is reaching the Ojai Valley in the afternoon and the lapse rate fades some but still isn’t inverted. The lapse rate in SB gets a little weaker on Wednesday but still ok, then on Thursday, it looks week below ridgeline, but not inverted, so you might be able to claw up by strategically benching back?
