3rd October Weekend / dry front transition to Santa Anna

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3rd October Weekend / dry front transition to Santa Anna

Postby sd » Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:51 am

See Daily post flight summaries for
[Thursday] [Friday] [Saturday] [Sunday] [Monday]
in reply post below
Evolving Weather Conditions Prognosis for the next week [continued at...]
Sunday Pre-Dawn Update (5 am)

The forecast continues to align with the model predictions with a high confidence over the next few days. As noted earlier, Ojai, with more protection from the ocean, has the better lapse rate so a flight back to Santa Barbara looks like a good call, but I haven’t read of anyone getting a permit for Sunday, so we will focus on Santa Barbara.

Sunday (SB) has less wind than yesterday (Saturday) morning, but still enough offshore influence to clear out the marine air this morning. There will still be a low morning surface inversion in the low spots due to the cold air settling and cold ground contact cooling, but the morning surface inversion appears shallow and should break as the day heats. By 11 am the west should start to pull in some at the lower altitudes but not strong. It appears light north above ridge line through the morning, then shifting to come from the NE (above ridgeline) in the afternoon., but not very strong. EJ launch might block, but the Skyport offers more protection.

The lapse rate between the Rock (1500 MSL) and the Skyport (3K) looks on par or better than the stretch above 3K early, so I don’t know that there is much of an advantage to launching higher other than EJ Launch being able to accommodate more pilots. The lapse rate later in the day improves some above ridgeline, so it might be nice late in the afternoon. The west flow down low doesn’t appear to pick up much, so it shouldn’t break up the thermals.

The Sunday lapse rate is OKish for SB, but not stellar. The afternoon 6K temperature is in the mid-60s and the surface temperature is in the high 80s, so a spread in the low to mid 20s…

The lapse rate on Monday and Tuesday looks much better, but the east wind on Monday will likely be an issue. From the east even below ridge line in SB. In the mid-teens above ridgeline in Santa Barbara and the high teens further east (Ojai) on Monday.

The east wind backs off some on Tuesday, but lapse rate is still strong. SB will see some onshore flow from the west down low but NE above ridge line. Ojai looks more manageable on Tuesday with booming lapse rate and single digit wind from the NE down lower, low double digits at ridgeline, and then falling back off to single digits up higher.

If I could fly Sunday, I’d launch in Ojai and fly back to SB. SB should work good also on Sunday, just not as robust as Ojai. Monday looks like it might be rideable for seasoned pilots, but you will need some bump tolerance. Tuesday looks better than Monday from a wind perspective, but it might be course limited by the lower level onshore flow? If you can stay high from Ojai on Tuesday, you might be able to avoid the lower level onshore flow from the WSW, perhaps by going OTB once you get to SB?

Friday Morning Update

The lower level local lapse rate is booming today (below a sharp inversion above ridge line), but it looks like the mountains will be blown-out today from the NW. Yesterday I thought there might be a possibility the sharp inversion above the ridge line could delay the vertical mixing that will pull down the higher velocity upper level wind, but a look at this morning’s observations indicate it is better to skip the mountains. You might be able to launch a HG from the Alternator north side, but the sharp inversion will clamp max altitude so it doesn’t calculate well in a risk/reward evaluation.

Bates may have a window before it also blows out. The trick at Bates (for slower PGs) is to launch before the wind builds, then bench back to La Conchita. There will likely be a lot of wind landing in Ventura, but you have a lot of beach to back up and the ocean air at the beach is manageable from a turb perspective. If you go inland it can get pretty rocky. The tide will be going out after 10:30, but low tide isn’t until 5 PM. Ventura has plenty of beach even in high tide. The Rincon coast will have less beach, but enough in places, and the wind won’t be as strong as it is at the river mouth in Ventura.

The wind backs off some on Saturday, but the lapse rate also backs off.

SB should be flyable on Sunday, but a flight from Ojai back to SB looks much better.

The east Santa Anna wind is established on Monday. The lapse rate is good, but there might be too much east wind in Ojai for most pilots? Will need to check Sunday night to confirm. If the wind blocks in Ojai on Monday, it looks like it could be good.
Midday Thursday / Early look at the coming weekend

Today, Thursday, looks like a good lapse rate but a bit windy from the NW west above ridge line, which might be good for a fast flight eastbound if your bump tolerance is up? Would likely need to use the lower launches or the north side of the Alternator? There is some wind in the channel, but mostly the western portion, so not sure if it will push through to Bates. It’s currently (noonish) blowing over 30 around Point Conception, half that mid-channel, and light from the SE at Bates.

Friday looks like increasing wind and a good lapse rate below 5K, but a strong capping inversion around 5K that might hold back the vertical mixing for awhile? And thus offer a possible early window? The channel is forecast to blow, so if you time it right you might be able to do Bates to Ventura?

Saturday starts a little postfrontal without the coveted cold air instability in SB, but the wind is forecasted to back off some in the afternoon. Might be a better day for the coastal sites?

Sunday is turning Santa Anna with a strong lapse rate and light wind from the east in Ojai. A weaker lapse rate and light wind from the west below ridge line in Santa Barbara. Sunday will likely work in SB, but the better call is to fly back to SB from Ojai? Someone would need to call the ranger station for a permit before end of business Friday to be able to drive up on Sunday.
http://scpa.info/lpnf for local navigation to https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/abo ... rdb5288687
Last edited by sd on Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:33 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Thursday Reports

Postby bb_secretary » Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:12 pm

SBSA Chat Box reports from Thursday seem to indicate wind from OTB at ridgeline early in the day but turning around to come up at the lower launches?

Posted by Mitch Riley about a quarter past 2 on Thursday:
Interesting morning in the mountains with the Eagle Van. After a lot of good para-waiting discussion, and watching 10 plus over the back at La Cumbre we drove down to Skyport and waited some more. Eventually the wind was blowing more up then down, in recognizable thermal cycles. I launched to find few, light thermals and eventually land. Dereck and Kelly had nice flights also.
Posted by Kelly at 2:45 PM
Fun day today. Thanks!
Posted by Derek Arc at 3:10 PM
Great day! Lots of learning whilst para-waiting before flying :) Thanks Mitch, Myles and Kelly
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Friday Reports

Postby bb_secretary » Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:25 pm

SBSA Chat Box reports from Friday seem to indicate blown out conditions from the NW in the mountains. Tony Deleo reported verbally from Bates around midday that it was blowing about 20ish, good direction.

Posted by Chris Ballmer at 9:38 am on Friday:
Chris Ballmer:
Bates onshore and active air now.
Posted by John Kloer (aka OJ) at 9:47 AM Friday
Bates SSW @ 15. Big texture on the outside of the boat moorings. Going to get strong pretty quick. Just had a ppg go by towards Rincon on a fast downwind route.

Posted by John Kloer (aka OJ) at 9:51 AM Friday
Ppg trying to push upwind from inside point. Parked out and getting rocked BIG time.

Posted by John Kloer (aka OJ) at 10:20 AM Friday
PPG got hammered with collapses when he flew behind the Eucalyptus trees on the other side of the freeway. He finally figured out that wasn't a good place and flew along the 150 towards the east and landed safely. Gave him a ride to his truck at Viola. He's only been flying a few months and said he didn't know it was going to be windy today. Sheesh.
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Saturday Reports

Postby bb_secretary » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:02 pm

SBSA Chat Box reports from Saturday seem to initial wind from the north in the mountains subsiding through the day and good flying in the local SB mountains

Posted by Mitch Riley at a quarter past 7 on Saturday morning:
Good morning! The models are in agreement that the wind should back off today. They are not in agreement about how much, or when. We currently have a 12+ degree lapse between Parma and La Cumbre, and that lapse should increase with heating. Plus it's a Saturday and lots of pilots are hungry for some flying. Eagle Van Parma 10 am.

Posted by Daniel Garcken: at 10:43 Saturday Morning
How's Skyport looking Eagle van crew?

Posted by Mitch Riley at 10:47 Saturday morning:
Blowing hard over the back

Posted by George LaPerle: at 3:38 PM Saturday
Stunning 2nd ride from Skyport today ... speed-bar & C’s for pitch control ... coming slowly but getting there!
Posted by Mitch Riley:
Great day up there with the Eagle Van. Good thermalling was had by many. Tops around 3.5k. Neal and Chris flew the task, with a couple of added turn points. Well done Andy for thermalling out if Skyport. Lucas had a badass bench back from A-Farm to T-factory. Well done for the progress with speed at pitch control George. Welcome back to mountain flying Chad!!!!!!!
Posted by Lucas Longo: at 6:14 PM Saturday
Thanks Mitch! It was awesome! Learned a lot from our Tandem on the first round.
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Sunday Reports

Postby bb_secretary » Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:03 pm

SBSA Chat Box reports from Sunday seem to indicate the day was a little slow to light off but turned on nicely with some newer pilots logging their personal best flights? Benching back from the Tit to up over La Cumbre Peak. Light north at ridge line blocked early with EJ launch coming in from the SE by the time pilots arrived at 11 am.

Posted by Mitch Riley at 10 past 5 on Sunday morning:
Thank you Tom! Eagle Van Parma 10am
Posted by Myles Connolly at 11:am.
EJ perfect @ 11.00. SE 5 mph steady.
Posted by Leon at 11 am
Bombed out. Looking for a ride back up from Parma
Posted by Daniel Garcken at 2:38 pm
Awesome flight today! Launched EJ and thermalled up over the tit, benched up to la cumbre peak, flew over Eliminator/Skyport to hook up with thermal factory, cruised up to 4,350'.

Posted by Daniel Garcken at 2:43 pm
Thanks Aaron! First hour long flight for me!

Clarification Posted by Daniel Garcken on Monday at 12:16 pm
La Cumbre Peak is not where I thought it was... I think I actually just benched up to the top of RR... thought I should correct myself.

Posted by Myles Connolly at 3:22 pm
Myles safe in Montecito. Heading back to Parma to collect car. Epic day!
Posted by Chris Ballmer Reply at :422 pm
Fun flying today. My top wuz 3300. Ej to the T. 1:20 min. No wind all day whaaaaatttttt!
Posted by Mitch Riley at quarter till 5 Sunday afternoon
Great day with the Eagle Van. Climbed to 5k at La Cumbre at 3:30. Lots of great flights out there. Congrats to Leon, Pearson, Dereck, Heckman, Neal, John Lyon, Bader and probably others for ripping around the task. Dereck wins the day with taskx2 and power lines and back. Also congrats to Bikash for his first Skyport climb out. Good stuff!
Posted by Derek Musashe at 11:45 PM Sunday Night
First of all, thanks to Heckman, the entire SBSA board, Rob S, and everyone else who made the movie/speaking/social event happen tonight. It was simply fantastic.

Second, for those of you that like analyzing flights on doarama, below you’ll find the doarama of my flight today (as well as Neal’s, who also flew to the power lines and back). Some flight notes are included in doarama description:


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Monday Reports

Postby bb_secretary » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:25 pm

SBSA Chat Box reports from Monday

Posted by Leon about 10 past 5 on Monday Evening
"Official Flight Report" Eagle Van - went up with 9 pilots departing Parma 11:15. Andrew Byron launched first, fished around the house thermal, took a small collapse and flushed west to Holy Hills then quickly over to lower Parma. I launched second around 12:15 finally caught the house thermal got to about 3500 over Skyport. Pushed upwind towards thermal factory attempting to start task. Connected above antenna farm against 10-15 E winds. Strong west drifting narrow thermals to ~3.5k got me just above thermal factory. Ended up pushing further east on a slow flush out over Parkers and back to the firebreak. Logan got up over Skyport then caught a bunch of sink and bailed to Snake Pit. Gaylen, Pierson, and Brian all had good flights landing at various sites from St. Mary's to lower Parma as we all navigated the interesting and challenging conditions. Ben and Kelly launched last and got up over the peaks. Watched them bounce back and forth between La Cumbre and Thermal Factory. Thanks to Calie for driving the Eagle Van back down for us. An overall challenging day with very interesting air. Sorry if I forgot anything. Thanks everybody for the day!
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