Colorful Wednesday 3/22

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Colorful Wednesday 3/22

Postby sd » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:47 pm

Wednesday Morning / 9:10ish at Parma

Tuesday Night Outlook for Wednesday

We might have a window on Wednesday between the showers and the wind.

Still some lingering SE flow tonight which should clock around and come from the west on Wednesday, then from the NW on Thursday. The wind velocity could be problematic. The velocity is increasing with altitude and also building through Thursday.

The best instability is tomorrow (Wednesday). If we can get off early we might be able to get ahead of the wind for a while. A west is good from a tailwind perspective but our mountains don’t block a west wind as much as flow from the north. The forecasted velocities seem manageable below 6Kish. The lift will likely go higher, but there is the potential for substantial development in the mountains that could get dark and dump.

There will also likely be some mid-level cloud cover with the lower stuff billowing (convecting) up through 10Kish and another layer of stratus around 18K? expecting limited sun, but with a strong unstable lapse rate it won’t take much heating to get things moving upward. Even if we don’t fly, the day should be colorful, so bring a camera.

If it’s not raining it should be soarable early, like 9:30 – 10 o’clock? Bates might work good enough for a trip to Ventura, but my preference would be the mountains and you can likely get to Rincon Mountain from the Skyport. If you don’t like they weather, just give it a little while and it will change as the day fluxes. I suspect in might get too windy and blown out by the end of the day?
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