Bates Mid-Dec Sunday

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Bates Mid-Dec Sunday

Postby sd » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:37 am

Sunday Summary

A few HG pilots went to the Eliminator early. One was able to get off in an up cycle but was only able to manage a sleder to Parma with noticeable drift from the west, which prompted the remaining pilots to pass. It was blowing mild OTB from the NW at ridge line until early afternoon, but after 2 PM it clocked around to come up the front from the SW with gust into the mid 20s (as per Debbie).

Reports from Wilcox were light conditions until the west wind hit with gust over 20 around noonish.

Bates was a good direction but light through early afternoon with a few PG pilots staying up for awhile but periodically flushing in the lulls. The wind did finally pull in abruptly by 2 PM but was cross from the west. A half dozen HG pilots were getting 800 over at launch for an easy transition to La Conchita and bigger altitude for the milk run to Ventura, landing at the beach by the harbor.
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Sunday morning glance (9:30 12/13)...
Bates is fickle, so I rarely post an alert, but South Side (John Scott) is coming up from LA midday, so Sunday must have some potential on a day the mountains will likely be blown out in the afternoon, especially the higher launches (but the lower launches might be doable earlier, before noonish?). John is hoping for a flight from Carpinteria (Bates) to Ventura. Saturday's north wind has backed off and clocked around to come from the west, which might be good on paper, but we are concerned that we may not get the Point Conception lee side wrap? The marine forecast looks reasonable from a velocity perspective. The lapse rate is so-so this morning but the weather changes radically as the day progresses with the 6K temperature plummeting from 8C to -4C (46F to 25F), so perhaps the direction will be ok during the prefrontal transition as the cold front sweeps through (prefrontal is often accompanied by local flow from the south or SE).

Having posted my perception, I need to caution once again that Bates is fickle, so don't take my ramblings to the bank if you have other potential activities scheduled for today. Many pilots (including myself) have spent hours watching a wind line offshore that won't quite pull in all the way to the beach, then if and when it does it can blow through quickly and cross, but the Channel looks only moderate this morning, so I think there is more potential for Bates to be too weak than too strong despite the forecasted 40 plus knot wind at 6K this afternoon because the Channel forecasted winds are much lighter, which leaves enough waffle room for breakfast ??
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