Sat 11/7

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Sat 11/7

Postby sd » Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:41 am

Saturday morning update: The forecast seems to be on-track for a good day in SB with light offshore clearing followed by light on-shore later today, but we may need to let the surface heat a bit to break the low level morning inversion. I think the Eagle Van is up at Plaskett. Recommend meeting in Carp or East Beach. If you need crew, give me a call. Contact info at http://truax.org/3/a_tom
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Friday night speculation for Saturday and Sunday

Santa Anna on tap for Saturday morning, but switching to onshore flow on Sunday. It blew downriver past Piru all day Friday, but eventually switched on-shore at the coast? The lapse rate looks good on the winds aloft forecast with a 30F degree spread between the surface an 6K.. 50F at 6K and a high of 80 on the surface. Perhaps a bit stronger in Ojai in the afternoon.

The SB lapse rate looks less impressive on the Nam skew-T forecast compared to Friday night's winds aloft forecast for Saturday. The Nam forecast is predicting flow from the east at altitude on Saturday in Ojai, but not too strong and perhaps fading some later in the afternoon. The Nam is calling for light flow from the west all day in SB, but I wouldn't be suppressed to see some light flow from the east early. The winds aloft forecast for SBA is calling for east flow all day, but the coverage area is broader than the 12Km Nam grid, so I'll go with flow from the west in SB Friday afternoon. Likely a good day for an out and return from Ojai. Pilots heading east from SB may eventually encounter a headwind.

I may be available to crew a couple vehicles down from launch (in SB) on Saturday, but probably won't be able to chase. Recommend pilots leave vehicles in Carpinteria and East Beach which have bus stops. The buses don't go to Parma.

Monday's lapse rate looks ballistic, but the NW wind looks like it might be too much, clocking around to the north on Tuesday.
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nam_2015_11-07_00z.zip
Nam skew-Ts for SB and Ojai
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