Weekend of 8/22-23

Past, present, and future flights, meeting times & places, theory.

Moderator: Moderation Team

Weekend of 8/22-23

Postby gracecab » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:17 am

Is it too early to seek the wisdom of the Prophet (SD) for this weekends prognosis.

And, yes, I have not looked up any forecasts yet... I'm too busy at work! :lol:
Chris Ballmer aka gracecab
Ventura, CA
UP Kantega XC2 / Gin Verso
User avatar
gracecab
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:56 pm

Re: Weekend Forecast

Postby sd » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:00 pm

gracecab wrote:Is it too early to seek ... this weekends prognosis... I have not looked up any forecasts yet...

The NAM Model forecast soundings are usually our best predictor a few days ahead. If you need to speculate further in advance, then the GFS models are the primary option. Thursday's 12Z NAM (5 am PDT) will extend through 24Z (5 PM PDT) on Sunday. The 12Z Nam is usually posted by mid-day local time, so if you only plan to fly on the weekends, then waiting until lunch time Thursday will let you look at the Nam forecast Skew-t charts for Thursday through Sunday.

To get a general idea earlier, it's pretty quick to review the "Forecast Discussion" in the link list at: http://scpa.info/weather (IE 9 or lower will collapse the links menu). The GFS and Nam Skew-T Soundings are under the Model link. Click on the question mark for instructions.

The conditions this weekend look average for late August. Sunday looks like the better day locally from a lapse rate perspective. The forecast is calling for light wind, but expect some local draw mid-day. Pine will likely work for a lap or 2 between launch and Decision Point, and possibly OTB toward Grade Valley and Lockwood, but the lapse rate isn't as strong as last weekend. The late day glass off will likely work, but don't schedule too late or you might need to use the north launch. The altitudes don't look stellar, but it pulls in light from the NW later in the day, so you might get a convergence boost over the NW corner Rayes that could be enough for a downwind reach back to Ojai.

Ojai is looking weak. Likely soarable mid-day, but not good enough to get much over launch. Didn't look at SB, but it's likely poor conditions in the mountains do to an inversion that is forecasted to be too low to get under, and too high to stay over. I suspect Marshall will work ok.

I think the best local fun would be a couple laps at Pine and maybe a reach OTB for Grade Valley early to mid afternoon, and or an attempt to get high for a glide back to Ojai later in the afternoon when the light flow from the NW starts to overpower the fading draw from the south.

I'd like to fly Pine on Sunday, but I'm going to focus on other task this weekend and keep and eye on next week.
User avatar
sd
 
Posts: 373
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2006 10:30 pm

Re: Weekend of 8/22-23

Postby Dizzy » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:01 am

I suspect Marshall will work ok


It will work, but does not look epic either, strong inversion in the valley and top of lift will be limited by ~5K or so, light wind. There will XC league this weekend and they plan to fly either Elsinore or Marshall Saturday and Marshall on Sunday if anyone interested.
User avatar
Dizzy
 
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:54 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Weekend of 8/22-23

Postby gracecab » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:14 pm

Thanks Tom. Im not sure yet...Sun. is my only fly day...could go anywhere...undecided...need to see weather Saturday...
Chris Ballmer aka gracecab
Ventura, CA
UP Kantega XC2 / Gin Verso
User avatar
gracecab
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:56 pm


Return to Flight Discussion



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

cron