Pine Mt Sunday 8/16 / 15K to Lancaster
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:49 pm14K in fist thermal over launch and 15K at Frazier. Jonathan and Marty flew to Lancaster. See Jonathan's summary below / http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3227#p9537
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Tom, Jonathan, and Marty wiil turn on their satellite trackers prior to launch. To track in flight, click on the following links:
https://share.delorme.com/TomTruax
and for Janathan
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=0WFJKh7gZ6CdHpOivZ3UelWFVCqZ8kHs1
and Marty at:
http://tinyurl.com/l6897pg
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Sunday Morning / Dawn Update
The forecasted conditions on the west end of the course, Pine through Neenach, seem to have improved with the afternoon lift going to 13 or 14K before hitting a pronounced kink in the temperature profile. The day will be hot, but will take a little while to "turn on". The late morning max altitudes are lower, only 10 or 11K. The strong lapse rate is accompanied by mostly light west wind at altitude with a little NW in it down lower through Lockwood and Neenach, so we might elect to go down the south side of the valley? The wind gradient is positive up to Neenach with less flow down lower and a little more up higher. The wind aloft velocity is only 5ish down low and 10 to 12 up higher, but there will be local draw from various directions into the mid to upper teens in places.
The conditions deteriorate approaching the onshore flow spilling into the desert from the Santa Clara River starting near Fairmont and extending east of Hwy 14. The lift doesn't go as high, maybe 12K, and the stiff lower level filling flow is problematic. The low level flow continues to build past sunset and the gradient is negative where it is stronger down low and lighter up high. The filling flow can be partially avoided by angling north away from Palmdale and Landcaster, but on Saturday the low level flow through the Tehachapi Valley was from the San Joaquin Valley (from the NW), so the shifting line might go down the middle of the Antelope Valley on the west end before angling northeast after Neenach. If you venture much past Neenach, you should be willing to land in some wind, which was gusting to 30 near Palmdale on Saturday, but 10 knots less further north away from the Castaic fill paths over the Liebre Mountains.
The winds aloft forecast indicates there was perhaps a stronger lapse rate on Saturday, but the NAM is forecasting higher lift on Sunday.
Logistics listed below unchanged as of Sunday morning. Bring plenty of water. The 12K temperature is about 50 degrees F and well over a hundred on the deck in most locations.
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Saturday Night Logistics for Sunday Update
Max's truck is full and unfortunately the Eagle Bus and the Fly Above All Suburban are already scheduled for other routes, so we had to turn away Chris Heckman who is leaving for a one month vol-biv trip through the Alps on Monday. We'd love to accommodate more pilots, but would need either a larger vehicle or another crew member/driver
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Friday Night and Saturday Afternoon Logistics Confirmation for Sunday
9 am at Ash Street in Ventura on Sunday to be on launch at Pine about 10:45ish. It's the last day of the Ventura Fair, but there should be parking available in the public lot by the foot bridge at Ash Street before the Fair opens at 11.
Edward is crew for Max's truck, which can hold 7. We currently have 7 bodies so Max's truck full. If you want to go, check in. We'll try to get a 2nd vehicle if necessary, or we might be able to use the Eagle Bus if needed. Max would like to fly all 3 days (Sat, Sun, and Mon) but needs crew for Pine and currently Edward is only available 1 day so he opted for Sunday. If you have crew and want fly Saturday or Monday also, give Max a call. Current head count for Sunday includes: Edward Skow (crew), Max Hogan (hg), David Teal (hg), Jonathan Dietch (hg), and Tom Truax (pg), Marty DeVietti (pg), and Edwin (hg pilot from Oxnard).
Bring plenty of water and a hat. Numerous locations are reporting record high temperatures.
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Friday Evening Logistics Progression
Rumor is Edward is available to crew and Max [whith his truck which can carry 7 or 8] would like to fly both Saturday and Sunday. David Teal will go Saturday if the logistics work, and SD is still holding out for Sunday. A number of pilots have opted to pass due to the blue sky and limited potential, and some of our southern pilots who were considering Pine have opted to fly Elsinore instead. Their potential will likely be limited (30ish mile range) by the nasty venturi through the Banning Pass.
I think pilots are planning to meet at Ash Street in Ventura around 9 am to be on launch a little before 11.
__________________________
Friday morning update
From and old 1988 poem http://paraglide.net/poem/law_88.pdf
... the weather cannot be bought nor voted upon
the moment is there as is
never before and never again ...
With that in mind, our best Pine Mountain XC weather eastbound is typically mid August through September. Mid-summer seems to draw too hard from the south for paragliders. As the summer intensity relaxes, there are more days where the south draw isn't pushing the feed line well north of Pine. This weekend seems to be one of the first occurrences this August offering relaxed flow from the south. I did have a flight from Pine mid June this year, but that was on the front side of the summer.
It is still early in our mid-August through September window. The weekend offers some potential, but also has some issues. The potential isn't likely record breaking. We'll need to wait a couple more weeks for the big distance flights, but it looks good enough to go 30 to 40 miles, and if you are willing to brave the late afternoon Mojave Desert wind, then flights close to 100 miles might be possible. You could also go south to fly back to Ojai or Fillmore, but the better days for reaching the beach have a little north flow up high and preferably higher thermal tops. Sunday's flow is from the west, so it seems best to go east even if the course is limited?
The 2 main problems with the day are the relatively low altitudes and negative wind gradient toward Hwy 14 (blowing stronger down low and weaker up high). We prefer a couple thousand feet more altitude with less wind down low (on the east end of the course) and more wind up high. Low level wind doesn't seem to be an issue from Pine to Neenach.
The lapse rate on the west end of the course looks good at the mid altitudes, but only goes to maybe 11 or 12K. The wind direction and strength on Sunday look favorable on the west end of the course, but approaching Hwy 14 the lower level feed flow is still spilling into the desert from the Santa Clara River. You might be able to bob along north of Edwards, but the wind is actually stronger down low than up at altitude, so I suspect it won't be a smooth ride. It is hot, so you might be able to stay up and keep going. Dribbling east along Hwy 58 would be a dead end at Hwy 395, slightly over 100 miles, because there is no retrieve east of 395 at that latitude. If you can angle further north then there is some shelter from the low level onshore flow behind the Garlock range over Ridgecrest, but getting there will require endurance. I suspect most of the pilots will opt to land somewhere around Neenach. If you do opt to continue on past Neenach, the you want to start angling NE before you encounter the stronger on-shore flow spilling into the Mojave starting around Fairmont. If you elect continue on you need to be willing to land in the gusty afternoon wind (15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) further east.
Robert Millington did fly reach the hundred mile mark never getting higher than 8Kish over the desert, but I think it was later in the season. He went south of Edwards. I suspect the surface wind near Hwy 14 was less.
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Minor Update / 3:30 Thursday:
Just took a look at the 18z NAM forecast sounding for Pine and Lockwood, which I didn't review earlier because I thought Pine was closed. Looks like the lapse rate is good and trending better through the day. Likely able to get close to 12K later in the afternoon, so for the pilots not looking to go XC toward Lockwood Valley and beyond, a late day flight back to Ojai looks doable, both Saturday and Sunday.
______________________________
Thursday afternoon update:
Good news just in time for the weekend:
Pine is reportedly OPEN
starting today, 8/13/2015
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4441
the LPNF website is still listing the Pine Mountain Road as "Closed"
http://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/about-forest/districts/?cid=stelprdb5309152, but I called the Ojai Ranger District Office this afternoon (8/13) to confirm and they said the road has been reopened. It was only closed to deal with the small (282 acre) fire. The web site date is 8/3, so apparently it hasn't been updated yet.
The current NAM forecast soundings are currently calling for the direction switch to occur sooner and the heat wave to be stronger and perhaps last longer. As of 12z, the NAM is predicting light wind aloft from the west on Sunday with more SW toward Edwards. The altitudes still look marginal, perhaps 10 to 11K at Pine early and maybe 12K or a little better over Lockwood, but with a tailwind it should be easier to get across Hwy 5 into the Antelope Valley compared to flow from the SW.
The lapse rate might be a tad better on Saturday, but for now I like the direction on Sunday.
This topic is a continuation of David Teal's posting regarding Pine.
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3226
A new topic was initiated to headline the important breaking news, but a review of Wednesday's assessment for the coming weekend is worthwhile.
__________________________________________________________________
Tom, Jonathan, and Marty wiil turn on their satellite trackers prior to launch. To track in flight, click on the following links:
https://share.delorme.com/TomTruax
and for Janathan
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/faces/viewspots.jsp?glId=0WFJKh7gZ6CdHpOivZ3UelWFVCqZ8kHs1
and Marty at:
http://tinyurl.com/l6897pg
______________________________
Sunday Morning / Dawn Update
The forecasted conditions on the west end of the course, Pine through Neenach, seem to have improved with the afternoon lift going to 13 or 14K before hitting a pronounced kink in the temperature profile. The day will be hot, but will take a little while to "turn on". The late morning max altitudes are lower, only 10 or 11K. The strong lapse rate is accompanied by mostly light west wind at altitude with a little NW in it down lower through Lockwood and Neenach, so we might elect to go down the south side of the valley? The wind gradient is positive up to Neenach with less flow down lower and a little more up higher. The wind aloft velocity is only 5ish down low and 10 to 12 up higher, but there will be local draw from various directions into the mid to upper teens in places.
The conditions deteriorate approaching the onshore flow spilling into the desert from the Santa Clara River starting near Fairmont and extending east of Hwy 14. The lift doesn't go as high, maybe 12K, and the stiff lower level filling flow is problematic. The low level flow continues to build past sunset and the gradient is negative where it is stronger down low and lighter up high. The filling flow can be partially avoided by angling north away from Palmdale and Landcaster, but on Saturday the low level flow through the Tehachapi Valley was from the San Joaquin Valley (from the NW), so the shifting line might go down the middle of the Antelope Valley on the west end before angling northeast after Neenach. If you venture much past Neenach, you should be willing to land in some wind, which was gusting to 30 near Palmdale on Saturday, but 10 knots less further north away from the Castaic fill paths over the Liebre Mountains.
The winds aloft forecast indicates there was perhaps a stronger lapse rate on Saturday, but the NAM is forecasting higher lift on Sunday.
Logistics listed below unchanged as of Sunday morning. Bring plenty of water. The 12K temperature is about 50 degrees F and well over a hundred on the deck in most locations.
__________________________________________
Saturday Night Logistics for Sunday Update
Max's truck is full and unfortunately the Eagle Bus and the Fly Above All Suburban are already scheduled for other routes, so we had to turn away Chris Heckman who is leaving for a one month vol-biv trip through the Alps on Monday. We'd love to accommodate more pilots, but would need either a larger vehicle or another crew member/driver
________________________________________________________________
Friday Night and Saturday Afternoon Logistics Confirmation for Sunday
9 am at Ash Street in Ventura on Sunday to be on launch at Pine about 10:45ish. It's the last day of the Ventura Fair, but there should be parking available in the public lot by the foot bridge at Ash Street before the Fair opens at 11.
Edward is crew for Max's truck, which can hold 7. We currently have 7 bodies so Max's truck full. If you want to go, check in. We'll try to get a 2nd vehicle if necessary, or we might be able to use the Eagle Bus if needed. Max would like to fly all 3 days (Sat, Sun, and Mon) but needs crew for Pine and currently Edward is only available 1 day so he opted for Sunday. If you have crew and want fly Saturday or Monday also, give Max a call. Current head count for Sunday includes: Edward Skow (crew), Max Hogan (hg), David Teal (hg), Jonathan Dietch (hg), and Tom Truax (pg), Marty DeVietti (pg), and Edwin (hg pilot from Oxnard).
Bring plenty of water and a hat. Numerous locations are reporting record high temperatures.
__________________________________
Friday Evening Logistics Progression
Rumor is Edward is available to crew and Max [whith his truck which can carry 7 or 8] would like to fly both Saturday and Sunday. David Teal will go Saturday if the logistics work, and SD is still holding out for Sunday. A number of pilots have opted to pass due to the blue sky and limited potential, and some of our southern pilots who were considering Pine have opted to fly Elsinore instead. Their potential will likely be limited (30ish mile range) by the nasty venturi through the Banning Pass.
I think pilots are planning to meet at Ash Street in Ventura around 9 am to be on launch a little before 11.
__________________________
Friday morning update
From and old 1988 poem http://paraglide.net/poem/law_88.pdf
... the weather cannot be bought nor voted upon
the moment is there as is
never before and never again ...
With that in mind, our best Pine Mountain XC weather eastbound is typically mid August through September. Mid-summer seems to draw too hard from the south for paragliders. As the summer intensity relaxes, there are more days where the south draw isn't pushing the feed line well north of Pine. This weekend seems to be one of the first occurrences this August offering relaxed flow from the south. I did have a flight from Pine mid June this year, but that was on the front side of the summer.
It is still early in our mid-August through September window. The weekend offers some potential, but also has some issues. The potential isn't likely record breaking. We'll need to wait a couple more weeks for the big distance flights, but it looks good enough to go 30 to 40 miles, and if you are willing to brave the late afternoon Mojave Desert wind, then flights close to 100 miles might be possible. You could also go south to fly back to Ojai or Fillmore, but the better days for reaching the beach have a little north flow up high and preferably higher thermal tops. Sunday's flow is from the west, so it seems best to go east even if the course is limited?
The 2 main problems with the day are the relatively low altitudes and negative wind gradient toward Hwy 14 (blowing stronger down low and weaker up high). We prefer a couple thousand feet more altitude with less wind down low (on the east end of the course) and more wind up high. Low level wind doesn't seem to be an issue from Pine to Neenach.
The lapse rate on the west end of the course looks good at the mid altitudes, but only goes to maybe 11 or 12K. The wind direction and strength on Sunday look favorable on the west end of the course, but approaching Hwy 14 the lower level feed flow is still spilling into the desert from the Santa Clara River. You might be able to bob along north of Edwards, but the wind is actually stronger down low than up at altitude, so I suspect it won't be a smooth ride. It is hot, so you might be able to stay up and keep going. Dribbling east along Hwy 58 would be a dead end at Hwy 395, slightly over 100 miles, because there is no retrieve east of 395 at that latitude. If you can angle further north then there is some shelter from the low level onshore flow behind the Garlock range over Ridgecrest, but getting there will require endurance. I suspect most of the pilots will opt to land somewhere around Neenach. If you do opt to continue on past Neenach, the you want to start angling NE before you encounter the stronger on-shore flow spilling into the Mojave starting around Fairmont. If you elect continue on you need to be willing to land in the gusty afternoon wind (15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph) further east.
Robert Millington did fly reach the hundred mile mark never getting higher than 8Kish over the desert, but I think it was later in the season. He went south of Edwards. I suspect the surface wind near Hwy 14 was less.
___________________________
Minor Update / 3:30 Thursday:
Just took a look at the 18z NAM forecast sounding for Pine and Lockwood, which I didn't review earlier because I thought Pine was closed. Looks like the lapse rate is good and trending better through the day. Likely able to get close to 12K later in the afternoon, so for the pilots not looking to go XC toward Lockwood Valley and beyond, a late day flight back to Ojai looks doable, both Saturday and Sunday.
______________________________
Thursday afternoon update:
Good news just in time for the weekend:
Pine is reportedly OPEN
starting today, 8/13/2015
http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4441
the LPNF website is still listing the Pine Mountain Road as "Closed"
http://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/lpnf/about-forest/districts/?cid=stelprdb5309152, but I called the Ojai Ranger District Office this afternoon (8/13) to confirm and they said the road has been reopened. It was only closed to deal with the small (282 acre) fire. The web site date is 8/3, so apparently it hasn't been updated yet.
The current NAM forecast soundings are currently calling for the direction switch to occur sooner and the heat wave to be stronger and perhaps last longer. As of 12z, the NAM is predicting light wind aloft from the west on Sunday with more SW toward Edwards. The altitudes still look marginal, perhaps 10 to 11K at Pine early and maybe 12K or a little better over Lockwood, but with a tailwind it should be easier to get across Hwy 5 into the Antelope Valley compared to flow from the SW.
The lapse rate might be a tad better on Saturday, but for now I like the direction on Sunday.
This topic is a continuation of David Teal's posting regarding Pine.
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3226
A new topic was initiated to headline the important breaking news, but a review of Wednesday's assessment for the coming weekend is worthwhile.
