Sunday, 7/19 / Fillmore to Santa Ynez / 67 miles

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Sunday, 7/19 / Fillmore to Santa Ynez / 67 miles

Postby sd » Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:21 am

Discussion continued from: http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=3211

This thread started out as a reply to an inquiry about monsoonal flow and subsequently evolved into the weekend opportunities with the remnants of hurricane Delores, so we shifted from the General Discussion to the Flight Discussion.

Hurricane Dolores / Mid July Weekend 2015
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Colorful Sunday, 7/19/2015 / Fillmore to Santa Ynez / 67 miles
Article, photos, track log, and video tour posted at:
http://paraglide.net/log/15/07-19/1_fillmore_to_santa_ynez_67_mi.htm
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8 am update
Shift in plans. 9 am meet at the Vons in Fillmore for Oat Mountain on Sunday
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Sunday 7 am Update:
I've got my gear bag loaded and ready for an early go (as early as possible) but waiting for truck confirmation from Max, who was on the fence last night. Will post as soon as I get some confirmation of transportation.
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Saturday, 7 PM Update
Saturday started with a substantial mid level moisture flowing up from the south. Most pilots were dissuaded by the advancing overcast and opted to pass on the day, but Ojai might have presented a limited window of opportunity late morning through early afternoon, after the morning rain and before the afternoon vertical development reached sufficient altitude to cool and reverse direction (dump)?

Sunday may offer another window of opportunity, but the current forecast is calling for about 25 to 30% more moisture. Ironically, the models aren’t certain this will produce more rain (but more rain is likely) because the thicker cloud cover may inhibit the heating more, thus reducing the necessary vertical development needed to produce the thunderstorms. The forecasted temperature for Ojai on Sunday is down a couple of degrees from earlier forecast (down to 92F from 94F). The forecast for Saturday was calling for 92, but the actual observation (which typically runs a bit cooler) only hit 83 at 3 pm before cooling sharply.

One of the reasons pilots were holding out for Sunday was due to the stiff south wind at altitude on Saturday, which is forecasted to relax some on Sunday.

Despite the wet forecast for Sunday, there are still pilots who want to give it a try. As of now, we have a permit and crew but only one truck belonging to Max. I concur with Max’s position that he wants to wait until morning to commit, so we may opt to scrub the day. I’ll check the weather early and consult with Max before posting an update sometime around 7:30ish. We don’t expect it to dawn sunny, but if the clouds seem thin enough we’ll post and early meet time.
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Saturday, 8 am update:
If you are going to fly Saturday through Monday, I’d still recommend Ojai. The models are in agreement about the big picture, but they can’t resolve the details with much certainty. One of the problems the models are having is their inability to locally predict the effects of variable but significant mid level cloud cover. The lapse rate is good to strong in Ojai on Saturday, but not stellar. A little sun will trigger significant convection, but areas that are persistently dark will be cooler and will likely be below the convection threshold.

The flow is mostly from the South on Saturday, but that translates into SE in Santa Barbara due to the Point Conception effect (venture around the corner). Ojai has less wind and a better lapse rate than Santa Barbara on Saturday and Sunday.

The onshore flow is weak. The ocean is flat Saturday morning, and the trend is decreasing flow through Sunday. Sunday looks like it is more of a broad SE compared to Saturday’s flow from the south. Monday continues to show some SE at mid altitudes, but down lower the SW starts to pull back in. Monday looks drier, but with SE up high and SW down low near the coast, so XC may be problematic Monday. By Tuesday, the flow gets established from the west and the moisture dissipates, but the lapse rate also fades to sub par.

The forecast continues to call for peak heating in Ojai on Sunday, Not much different than Saturday and Monday in Ojai, but a more noticeable temperature peak closer to the ocean in Santa Barbara. The current temperature forecast for Ojai is calling for low 90s on Saturday approaching the mid 90s on Sunday. With a 6K temperature of around 60 degrees, the lapse rate is strong. It won’t take much heating to trigger convection.

Cloudbase looks to be around 6K in Ojai Saturday morning, but the Skew-t charts are aren’t decisive. Cloudbase looks lower in Santa Barbara. The route from Ojai toward Cuyama looks problematic due to the low cloudbase, so we might have to stay on the front side of the wilderness area.

I posted the Saturday 12Z Skew-t chart runs for Ojai and Santa Barbara through Tuesday in a zip file (20 files total).
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Friday, 4 am Perception:
The forecasted trajectory for Delores takes it up the coast heading NNW to somewhere SW (offshore) of point conception. I suspect it's northern progress will be arrested below Point Conception as it encounters cold water which should also cut off the feed. The current short term forecasts are only projecting out until Monday, but it looks like our mid altitude flow will turn west mid-week (late Tuesday?), however, the lapse rate deteriorates with the flow direction switch.

I agree with John Scott in that the best altitude looks like Friday (today) but there may be too much south wind at altitude for PGs. Perhaps pilots launching further east can get on course heading north.

I would recommend flying Ojai both Saturday and Sunday, with Sunday offering perhaps the better potential? Saturday still has quite a bit of flow from the south, although not as much as Friday. There appears to be more east in it on Sunday, which might align better for a feasible route. Sunday is also the peak heat day with perhaps a better lapse rate? Cloudbase looks low on both Saturday and Sunday (for the higher back range mountains), somewhere around 8 to 10K, and perhaps lower further south along the San Gabriel range.

In addition to the relatively low cloudbase for the back range, there should also be plenty of high clouds with massive convergence development over the wilderness that could dump some rain. The low cloudbase and overdevelopment behind Ojai and SB makes it problematic to follow the heart of the lift over un-retrievable terrain, so you will likely need to choose between running the ocean side or the Cuyama side.

We might be able to launch from Chiefs on Sunday and angle back across Dry Lake Ridge toward the west end of Ortega and on across the headwaters of the Sespe toward Santa Barbara Canyon behind Cuyama Peak, trying to reach for the Cuyama Valley, which might be workable with the available altitude.

There is more east wind down low in Santa Barbara as the south flow tries to get around the mountains near Point Conception. My preference would be to lunch from Ojai, which has less east wind and a better lapse rate, but if you do choose to fly from Santa Barbara, perhaps you can get up and OTB to run the range on the north side of Lake Cachuma. Santa Barbara looks inverted down low on Friday, but opens up on Saturday with a good lapse rate on Sunday. If you launch from Ojai on Sunday and the NW route looks too ominous, then skirting the south side of the convergence westbound will likely be an option.

The San Gabriel range will likely offer some colorful opportunities, but the mountains are pretty high for the cloudbase so I'll opt to stay local.

The development seems to be driven more by an abundance of moisture rather than towering instability, but the lapse rate on Saturday and more so on Sunday does look good.

In the conceptual discussion about Monsoonal Flow, I indicated that the higher back mountains and the deserts are typically a better option than the coastal range. The northern push of Hurricane Delores is a large amplitude variation of the Monsoonal Flow with more moisture and lower cloudbase that will likely yield better potential by launching from the front range this weekend.

Since the forecast is calling for overdevelopment both Saturday and Sunday, I'd recommend an early meet time on the front side of the OD. Since some pilots will likely choose to fly Ojai, I'll check with Fly Above All about a permit and logistics.
Attachments
nam_2015_07-18_12z.zip
Sat Morning Skew-T Runs for Ojai and Santa Barbara through Tuesday (20 files)
(877.23 KiB) Downloaded 193 times
Last edited by sd on Fri Aug 07, 2015 11:53 am, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: Hurricane Delores / Mid July Weekend 2015

Postby dteal » Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:41 am

Looks like a lot of mid level clouds down here in Moorpark - enough to shut down the heating...

What do you guys (SD & SS) think about Sunday?

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Sunday Meet Time at NHS for Chiefs Pending

Postby sd » Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:03 am

dteal wrote:What do you guys (SD & SS) think about Sunday?DT

Saturday looked good in Ojai, but low interest and no crew. We are planning to fly Ojai on Sunday, rain or shine. We currently have 2 permits, one truck (Max Hogan) and Peter for crew. Edward Skow may also be available to crew if we need another truck. Will post meet time later, but will likely be sometime between 9 and 10 am at Nordhoff HS.
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Re: Hurricane Delores / Mid July Weekend 2015

Postby dteal » Sat Jul 18, 2015 10:15 am

I'm in. It's currently raining in Ojai: http://www.ojaivalleynews.com/ojaicam.php
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Re: Hurricane Delores / Mid July Weekend 2015

Postby gracecab » Sat Jul 18, 2015 4:00 pm

im in. coming from e.vta... hope to fly if conditions for my level make sense... also can chase...and photograph the event for posterity.
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Re: Hurricane Delores / Mid July Weekend 2015

Postby *jp* » Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:41 pm

As had been predicted in this thread, Pine was unflyable today (strong SE winds, cloud base near launch, periodic rain cycles), but it was great for a Sand Pile to launch Chorro Grande hike. Hadn't done that in 20+ years.
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Re: Hurricane Delores / Mid July Weekend 2015

Postby gracecab » Sun Jul 19, 2015 5:58 am

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2451116 ... 544042906/


This is facing w from Wells Ave and the 126... my room

Its pretty much like this in all directions as of 7 am

Im still game if anyone else is.
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image.jpg
730. looking e
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Re: Sunday 7/19 / 9 am at the Vons in Fillmore for Oat

Postby gracecab » Sun Jul 19, 2015 11:29 am

Tom true ask and I launched out mountain at 11 o'clock south east wind , light cycles we both glided towards San hey Jan no ridge . I scratched over the ridge after cutting too far inside, then landed out in the river bed's . Tom hit send Cayetano peak 5500-ish and was still climbing. much thanks to Mark at out mountain for letting us fly this morning.
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Re: Sunday, 7/19 / Fillmore to Santa Ynez / 67 miles

Postby NMERider » Mon Jul 20, 2015 1:04 pm

Congratz to sd for setting a new benchmark for Oat Mtn and a big thanks to Nitrous for offering up such a unique launch site. Gracecab, Welcome to Oat Mtn and the frustrations of connecting. Looking forward to the full report.
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Flight Archive

Postby sd » Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:27 pm

Better late than never? I finally posted my flight log for Sunday the 19th at
http://paraglide.net/log/15/07-19/1_fillmore_to_santa_ynez_67_mi.htm

New to this flight archive is a Video Tour posted on Vimeo at
https://vimeo.com/135482867

There are also a couple of tour versions in the Google Earth KML (KMZ) file at:
http://paraglide.net/log/15/07-19/2015_07-19_tom_truax_track.kmz
The KMZ file also includes the pilots view and location for the photos from the Photo Set which is posted at http://paraglide.net/log/15/07-19/photo

And of course, I recommend that students of the sport review the weather archive at
http://paraglide.net/log/15/07-19/2_weather.htm
to aid in your preflight assessment the next time a Hurricane come this far north in July.
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Re: Sunday, 7/19 / Fillmore to Santa Ynez / 67 miles

Postby gracecab » Fri Aug 07, 2015 11:37 am

sd wrote:New to this flight archive is a Video Tour posted on Vimeo at
https://vimeo.com/135482867


This is great! I need to do this for some of the other flights from SB to Ojai, etc... Seeing it beforehand should help get a bead on possible routes!
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Re: Flight Archive

Postby Randall » Sat Aug 08, 2015 8:38 pm

Tom, the video tour is fantastic! I hope you can at some point do that for some of your other great flights (and even for the standard SB to Ojai milk-run). It really makes me feel like I'm experiencing the flight, and is super helpful for anyone aspiring to re-trace your route. It makes all the landmarks come to life. Thank you!
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Re: Flight Archive

Postby oj » Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:56 am

Randall wrote: I hope you can at some point do that for some of your other great flights (and even for the standard SB to Ojai milk-run).


Is there a line through the pass I don't know about? It has never felt like a milk-run to me.
The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.- J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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