Forecast for Sun-Wed 2/22-25ish

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Forecast for Sun-Wed 2/22-25ish

Postby sd » Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:54 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

The GFS seems more bullish compared to the NAM in forecasting the lapse rate for Sunday and Monday. Both days show a strong lapse rate at the lower altitudes with the GFS showing the lift going higher. The lapse rate fades on Tuesday with a some onshore wind starting to pickup, and Wednesday is currently looking like it might be too windy for the mountains. Bates will likely work Wednesday but it might get too windy in the afternoon.

Sunday and Monday look pretty cloudy on the Nam. The GFS is showing fewer clouds on Monday. The forecast discussion is calling for a very deep marine layer on Sunday with possible drizzle and some potential for rain further south. Sun on Sunday looks unlikely, but if we do get some heating then it should work good down low.

Bates looked weaker today, but FlyAboveAll reported good conditions at Elings and Wilcox on Thursday.
Thursday Afternoon Update

The models continue to disagree about what to expect for next week, and the forecast has flip-flopped back and forth a couple of times. Currently, Monday looks like the best day, but we'll need to wait a couple more days to see if the current forecast stays on track.

Saturday looks like a weak lapse rate under high clouds.

Sunday is showing a good lapse rate down below 4K in a super thick marine layer. Might be an opportunity to break Chad's record from Elings if a little sun pokes through.

On Monday the lapse rate looks strong up to 6 or 7K. There might be some clouds, but they could tower and offer scenic views.

Tuesday looks ok. A weaker lapse rate, but dryer. Wednesday has deteriorated from stellar to "better than average" with an ok lapse rate. You can likely still fly to Fillmore, but I don't think anyone will be logging a hundred miler.
Tuesday Night News
Stellar Forecast for Mon-Wed 2/23-25ish

Check out the long range GFS forecast Skew-T Soundings for some potentially stellar soaring conditions and XC potential next week at:
Last edited by sd on Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Stellar Forecast for Mon-Wed 2/23-25ish

Postby gracecab » Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:36 pm

Great news!

Since I'm coming from work in Carp. I'm open to picking up anyone on my way to Parma, where I must park and land too... though definitely my goal will be to stay higher than Tunnel Tit next week! Maybe get lots more than an hour, too? :lol:

Basically, I clock out around 9:30-10... and try to clock in by 1... to make the least amount of commotion by being out.

I'd take a whole day off if I thought I could go XC... maybe next year :wink:

Thanks for the heads up sundowner!
Chris Ballmer aka gracecab
Ventura, CA
UP Kantega XC2 / Gin Verso
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