2015 Saturday Valentine / Painted Cave to Fillmore
Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:56 amLink to Sundowner's flight log for Valentine's Day
http://paraglide.net/log/15/02-14/1_skyport_to_painted_cave_to_fillmore.htm
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Saturday Morning Pre-Dawn Update (6 am)
Still on track for a 9:45 meet at East Beach.
The models are tracking the earlier forecast. There is some stiff ESE wind on the ridge this morning but it should back down by launch time. I would be concerned about the southern component being a sign of mass movement from the ocean, but all the lower stations are reporting light offshore diurnal drainage, and the buoys are light offshore, so I expect the marine air won't be much of a factor until perhaps later in the day.
The east wind backs down locally, but oddly persist on the NAM forecast sounding until late in the day over Santa Barbara while the west comes through much earlier further east along the course. It's usually the other way around with the west pushing through from the west. As noted above, the buoys are light offshore, but they did stir from the west Friday afternoon, and the mild sea breeze marched up the Santa Clara River replacing the retreating offshore flow. The sea breeze is forecasted to be stronger today despite the local SE flow early, and more of an issue on Sunday. I think the early morning stiff flow at La Cumbre Peak is local laminar venturi compression and will be unsupported later today as the air becomes less stable with heating.
Overall, the wind on Saturday looks particularly light, especially at the higher altitudes. Expect some local draw down lower based on the topography, but it looks pretty mild wind wise midday through early afternoon with some light broad flow from the west toward the end of day.
The lapse rate numbers look ok with a 6 am temperature spread of 6 degrees F between Montecito (1500 feet / somewhat above the morning valley inversion) and La Cumbre Peak (69F vs 63F). The Nam and Winds Aloft Forecast are both calling for warm air at 6K (13C~ 55F), but the surface is forecasted to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, so we still have a decent temperature spread between the surface and 6K. I still think it could be weak along Castle Ridge because it is low and close to the ocean, but if we can reach Power Line Ridge it should start getting better because it is uphill and angling away from the ocean.
I may work better up high near the coast along the Santa Barbara Range, but there isn't much of an inversion even early this morning due to the light diurnal offshore ebb. With an ok but not stellar lapse rate expect max altitude to vary with the height of the terrain. It might be marginal along Castle Ridge, but should get better going over the high peaks through Casitas Pass. The day deteriorates some in the Santa Clara River after the sea breeze pulls the cooler heavy marine air upriver, but Ojai looks like it will work good late in the day with an improving lapse rate. Might be a good day to detour to the Topa Bluffs to test for Max Altitude.
The barometer is on the high side, but not as high as Wednesday and Thursday. They had some bumpy air earlier in the week down low, so with sunny skies and high pressure I would expect some bumps today also, but with less wind and slightly lower barometer... hopefully the bumps will be down a notch.
We may see some intermittent thin cirrus clouds, but they shouldn't be much of a factor. On the satellite photos it looks like we are getting squeezed between clouds streaming in from the west and up from the south, but in the middle we should remain mostly clear.
We will likely do an initial westbound leg with the east wind persisting along the local stretch longer than the eastern end of the course. With the west coming through late we might be able to go pretty far west if the altitude is good enough to brave the flat terrain west of San Marcos Pass? I don't think we can go much past Piru with the ocean air pulling up river early, so we shouldn't run out of time even with a late start. There is the possibility that we could get a boost from the sea breeze front, but I think we might be too late to catch it, and based on the lapse rate in Fillmore it looks like max altitudes around Fillmore are only in the mid 4s at best (hoping for 6 or 7K at the Topa Bluffs)
The early lapse rate looks quite good in Fillmore, so the best distance potential of the day might be to launch from Oat and do an out and return to White Ledge and back, but I don't expect anyone is lined up for that task.
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Friday Late Afternoon Update
Planning to fly to Fillmore from Santa Barbara on Saturday. Don't think we can get on course early, so 9:45 at East Beach, 10ish at Parma, for a possible 10:45 or 11 am launch.
The east wind takes a day off on Saturday. If we can get to Power Line Ridge we should be able to reach Fillmore. The lapse rate looks doable, but perhaps a bit on the weak side. It was stronger earlier in the week, but the course was limited by the Santa Anna. There will likely be some early light east flow in SB, but Ojai and Fillmore are calling for flow from the west in the afternoon.
It was a Santa Anna event earlier in the week, but the onshore flow pulled up river today (Friday) switching early at the river mouth, Camarillo by 1 PM, and Fillmore around 4:30 or 5. It should pull upriver earlier on Saturday, which is a mixed blessing because the ocean air is heavy.
Pilots got into the upper 5s in SB earlier this week, but no reports from Friday which was a tad weaker than Thursday. Saturday looks better than Sunday locally, but Sunday looks ok inland. The LA pilots plan to stay south on Saturday looking for the post Santa Anna onshore convergence.
The high clouds from the system to our south don't seem to be a factor.
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Thursday Morning Update:
The Eagle Bus is scheduled for Parma at 10:30
Pilots did well from the Santa Barbara Mountains on Wednesday
The slowly evolving Santa Anna event seems to be tracking close to the models. The lapse rate in Santa Barbara looks good through Sunday with today (Thursday) perhaps a tad weaker than Wednesday, and Friday perhaps a tad weaker than today. Saturday cools at altitude but also at the surface...
Upper flow in Santa Barbara is from the east through Sunday, but stronger today than Wednesday then relaxing some on Friday and even more into the weekend with some lower level onshore flow from the SW by Sunday.
Mostly clear skies. There are intermittent high cirrus clouds, but they aren't shutting down the heating. There are also some clouds streaming off the system moving up from the south that may affect the weekend, but more so further south, and perhaps more on Sunday.
The east wind might be borderline for the Nuthouse today, but it looks good on Friday. The east wind persist on Saturday in Santa Barbara, but light, and oddly the NAM is calling for less east wind further east on Saturday. The Fillmore lapse rate on Saturday looks ok up to 4 or 5K midday, then a little lower later in the day as the ocean air pulls up the river.
On Sunday the east flow toward the east end of the course returns, but lighter than this week. A flight from Fillmore westbound might be possible on Sunday. I would wager on the potential if we could launch from San Cayetano, but the road status need further investigation. I think it might be doable from Oat Mountain, but we may need to wait until noonish to launch. It will likely be downwind up to Casitas Pass, but Casitas Pass will likely have some venturi flow from the west down low late in the day, and with a late start it might be problematic getting across to Santa Barbara which will likely be from the west down low late in the day on Sunday.
Wednesday might have offered the best altitude, but if we can get over Casitas Pass on Saturday, then a flight to Fillmore or Piru might offer the best open distance potential of the week. Thursday and Friday look good also, but the eastbound potential is limited. If there isn't much interest in Fillmore on Sunday (it would be really good to have access to the San Cayetano Road), then the Nuthouse will likely be good enough for a flight westbound to Santa Barbara, or perhaps to a turnpoint in SB and back to Carpinteria? SB should work ok on Sunday as well, but I prefer downwind legs.
I'd like to fly everyday but can't? ... so.. I'm currently looking at Saturday as potentially offering the longest course.
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Wednesday morning look at the Santa Anna Event
Today (Wednesday) looks like the best lapse rate through the end of the work week, but it is forecast to turn on Saturday as the east wind fades and the on-shore flow is drawn in, at least near the coast. A possible kink is the forecasted mid to high level clouds on Saturday coming up from the south, but perhaps we might be far enough north?
Santa Barbara should work good today. Perhaps a bit windy at dawn from the SE along the ridge, but the lapse rate is solid. There are some thin high clouds, but not enough to block the sun. The best bet would be to launch from Ojai and fly back to SB, but with the road closed the only option is the Nuthouse, so I suspect most pilots will opt for the paved road in our local mountains. The lift looks good up to almost 6K, but there is some wind from the east increasing with altitude. Perhaps you can fly east to Santa Ynez Peak and then OTB over the flats toward Santa Maria?
The lapse rate fades Thursday through Friday, and the east wind above 5K is a bit more on Thursday, but the wind and lapse rate below 4K still look good on Thursday. Friday will likely be ok in SB, but not as good as Thursday.
On Saturday the high pressure drifts off to the east and we get some influence from a loose low pressure system moving up from the south (just visible on this morning's pacific satellite snap shot). Unfortunately, the deteriorating system is forecasted to stream some mid and high level clouds over us. The good news is that both the temperature at altitude and the wind fall off significantly yielding a good lapse rate and light wind under moderated heating which sounds sweet. There could be a little on-shore marine air down low. The heavy marine air currently looks minimal on Saturday but increasing on Sunday.
http://paraglide.net/log/15/02-14/1_skyport_to_painted_cave_to_fillmore.htm
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Saturday Morning Pre-Dawn Update (6 am)
Still on track for a 9:45 meet at East Beach.
The models are tracking the earlier forecast. There is some stiff ESE wind on the ridge this morning but it should back down by launch time. I would be concerned about the southern component being a sign of mass movement from the ocean, but all the lower stations are reporting light offshore diurnal drainage, and the buoys are light offshore, so I expect the marine air won't be much of a factor until perhaps later in the day.
The east wind backs down locally, but oddly persist on the NAM forecast sounding until late in the day over Santa Barbara while the west comes through much earlier further east along the course. It's usually the other way around with the west pushing through from the west. As noted above, the buoys are light offshore, but they did stir from the west Friday afternoon, and the mild sea breeze marched up the Santa Clara River replacing the retreating offshore flow. The sea breeze is forecasted to be stronger today despite the local SE flow early, and more of an issue on Sunday. I think the early morning stiff flow at La Cumbre Peak is local laminar venturi compression and will be unsupported later today as the air becomes less stable with heating.
Overall, the wind on Saturday looks particularly light, especially at the higher altitudes. Expect some local draw down lower based on the topography, but it looks pretty mild wind wise midday through early afternoon with some light broad flow from the west toward the end of day.
The lapse rate numbers look ok with a 6 am temperature spread of 6 degrees F between Montecito (1500 feet / somewhat above the morning valley inversion) and La Cumbre Peak (69F vs 63F). The Nam and Winds Aloft Forecast are both calling for warm air at 6K (13C~ 55F), but the surface is forecasted to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, so we still have a decent temperature spread between the surface and 6K. I still think it could be weak along Castle Ridge because it is low and close to the ocean, but if we can reach Power Line Ridge it should start getting better because it is uphill and angling away from the ocean.
I may work better up high near the coast along the Santa Barbara Range, but there isn't much of an inversion even early this morning due to the light diurnal offshore ebb. With an ok but not stellar lapse rate expect max altitude to vary with the height of the terrain. It might be marginal along Castle Ridge, but should get better going over the high peaks through Casitas Pass. The day deteriorates some in the Santa Clara River after the sea breeze pulls the cooler heavy marine air upriver, but Ojai looks like it will work good late in the day with an improving lapse rate. Might be a good day to detour to the Topa Bluffs to test for Max Altitude.
The barometer is on the high side, but not as high as Wednesday and Thursday. They had some bumpy air earlier in the week down low, so with sunny skies and high pressure I would expect some bumps today also, but with less wind and slightly lower barometer... hopefully the bumps will be down a notch.
We may see some intermittent thin cirrus clouds, but they shouldn't be much of a factor. On the satellite photos it looks like we are getting squeezed between clouds streaming in from the west and up from the south, but in the middle we should remain mostly clear.
We will likely do an initial westbound leg with the east wind persisting along the local stretch longer than the eastern end of the course. With the west coming through late we might be able to go pretty far west if the altitude is good enough to brave the flat terrain west of San Marcos Pass? I don't think we can go much past Piru with the ocean air pulling up river early, so we shouldn't run out of time even with a late start. There is the possibility that we could get a boost from the sea breeze front, but I think we might be too late to catch it, and based on the lapse rate in Fillmore it looks like max altitudes around Fillmore are only in the mid 4s at best (hoping for 6 or 7K at the Topa Bluffs)
The early lapse rate looks quite good in Fillmore, so the best distance potential of the day might be to launch from Oat and do an out and return to White Ledge and back, but I don't expect anyone is lined up for that task.
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Friday Late Afternoon Update
Planning to fly to Fillmore from Santa Barbara on Saturday. Don't think we can get on course early, so 9:45 at East Beach, 10ish at Parma, for a possible 10:45 or 11 am launch.
The east wind takes a day off on Saturday. If we can get to Power Line Ridge we should be able to reach Fillmore. The lapse rate looks doable, but perhaps a bit on the weak side. It was stronger earlier in the week, but the course was limited by the Santa Anna. There will likely be some early light east flow in SB, but Ojai and Fillmore are calling for flow from the west in the afternoon.
It was a Santa Anna event earlier in the week, but the onshore flow pulled up river today (Friday) switching early at the river mouth, Camarillo by 1 PM, and Fillmore around 4:30 or 5. It should pull upriver earlier on Saturday, which is a mixed blessing because the ocean air is heavy.
Pilots got into the upper 5s in SB earlier this week, but no reports from Friday which was a tad weaker than Thursday. Saturday looks better than Sunday locally, but Sunday looks ok inland. The LA pilots plan to stay south on Saturday looking for the post Santa Anna onshore convergence.
The high clouds from the system to our south don't seem to be a factor.
_______________________
Thursday Morning Update:
The Eagle Bus is scheduled for Parma at 10:30
Pilots did well from the Santa Barbara Mountains on Wednesday
The slowly evolving Santa Anna event seems to be tracking close to the models. The lapse rate in Santa Barbara looks good through Sunday with today (Thursday) perhaps a tad weaker than Wednesday, and Friday perhaps a tad weaker than today. Saturday cools at altitude but also at the surface...
Upper flow in Santa Barbara is from the east through Sunday, but stronger today than Wednesday then relaxing some on Friday and even more into the weekend with some lower level onshore flow from the SW by Sunday.
Mostly clear skies. There are intermittent high cirrus clouds, but they aren't shutting down the heating. There are also some clouds streaming off the system moving up from the south that may affect the weekend, but more so further south, and perhaps more on Sunday.
The east wind might be borderline for the Nuthouse today, but it looks good on Friday. The east wind persist on Saturday in Santa Barbara, but light, and oddly the NAM is calling for less east wind further east on Saturday. The Fillmore lapse rate on Saturday looks ok up to 4 or 5K midday, then a little lower later in the day as the ocean air pulls up the river.
On Sunday the east flow toward the east end of the course returns, but lighter than this week. A flight from Fillmore westbound might be possible on Sunday. I would wager on the potential if we could launch from San Cayetano, but the road status need further investigation. I think it might be doable from Oat Mountain, but we may need to wait until noonish to launch. It will likely be downwind up to Casitas Pass, but Casitas Pass will likely have some venturi flow from the west down low late in the day, and with a late start it might be problematic getting across to Santa Barbara which will likely be from the west down low late in the day on Sunday.
Wednesday might have offered the best altitude, but if we can get over Casitas Pass on Saturday, then a flight to Fillmore or Piru might offer the best open distance potential of the week. Thursday and Friday look good also, but the eastbound potential is limited. If there isn't much interest in Fillmore on Sunday (it would be really good to have access to the San Cayetano Road), then the Nuthouse will likely be good enough for a flight westbound to Santa Barbara, or perhaps to a turnpoint in SB and back to Carpinteria? SB should work ok on Sunday as well, but I prefer downwind legs.
I'd like to fly everyday but can't? ... so.. I'm currently looking at Saturday as potentially offering the longest course.
_____________________________________________
Wednesday morning look at the Santa Anna Event
Today (Wednesday) looks like the best lapse rate through the end of the work week, but it is forecast to turn on Saturday as the east wind fades and the on-shore flow is drawn in, at least near the coast. A possible kink is the forecasted mid to high level clouds on Saturday coming up from the south, but perhaps we might be far enough north?
Santa Barbara should work good today. Perhaps a bit windy at dawn from the SE along the ridge, but the lapse rate is solid. There are some thin high clouds, but not enough to block the sun. The best bet would be to launch from Ojai and fly back to SB, but with the road closed the only option is the Nuthouse, so I suspect most pilots will opt for the paved road in our local mountains. The lift looks good up to almost 6K, but there is some wind from the east increasing with altitude. Perhaps you can fly east to Santa Ynez Peak and then OTB over the flats toward Santa Maria?
The lapse rate fades Thursday through Friday, and the east wind above 5K is a bit more on Thursday, but the wind and lapse rate below 4K still look good on Thursday. Friday will likely be ok in SB, but not as good as Thursday.
On Saturday the high pressure drifts off to the east and we get some influence from a loose low pressure system moving up from the south (just visible on this morning's pacific satellite snap shot). Unfortunately, the deteriorating system is forecasted to stream some mid and high level clouds over us. The good news is that both the temperature at altitude and the wind fall off significantly yielding a good lapse rate and light wind under moderated heating which sounds sweet. There could be a little on-shore marine air down low. The heavy marine air currently looks minimal on Saturday but increasing on Sunday.