Sunday Nudge
Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:48 am________________________
Sunday Post Mortem (5 PM)
Well, definitely off on the Sunday pre-dawn synopsis. Looked like we were about to get hit by the tail of a spinning low pressure, but the low nudged north and most of the moisture streaming from the SW tracked north of Point Conception. With more sun than expected the local lapse rate was substantially better than forecasted. The mid-day spread between Montecito Peak and La Cumbre was a dozen degrees F. From my vantage in Carpinteria, it looked like a nice cloud street along the range with some flow from the WSW at ridge line, a bit stronger later in the day? Cloudbase fluxed up and down from the upper mid 3s to the mid 4s. Might have been able to get over Casitas Pass with the tail wind if you got fuzzy on the edges and were lucky on the timing? I think the ocean was mostly calm with an occasional light draw toward the mountains.
I'm hoping at least few pilots were skeptical of my pre-dawn assessment and went up despite the negative comments. Look forward to reading a flight report or two.
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Sunday Late Morning Update (10:50)
Looks like I might have undervalued the day in the mountains. A current look at the satellite image and radar seem to indicate most of the activity will slide to our north? La Cumbre is reporting 7 to 10. The channel is still light offshore, but the flow above the inversion is from the SW. The lapse rate is weak, but I can see low clouds trying to lift. If the wind stays down, and we get a little more sun, and it stays dry...
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Sunday Pre-Dawn Synopsis / Sunday Squeeze
We have a sliver of a window between systems, so the mountains will likely be flyable early (very early) this morning, but the next system is upon us by late morning, so we didn't get much of a post-frontal effect between systems. It remains mostly pre-frontal from the SE at low altitudes with some SSW flow at ridge line. We do have some clear skies before dawn, but by mid-morning the clouds are moving in and the mountains will likely see more rain by late morning followed by rain down lower shortly after. Although the mountains may be flyable before the rain this morning, the lapse rate down low is poor. There is some south wind at ridge line, but perhaps a bit much for PGs.
The channel buoys are light from the SE, so the coastal cliff action also looks poor. There might be a little SE wind on the cliffs later today, but by then it will likely be wet. Perhaps you can get in a few passes before the drizzle arrives.
There is more rain around the corner of Point Conception with the central coast already getting wet with flow from the SW. The action will hopefully sag a bit to give us a little also.
Monday goes Post Frontal with clearing skies, climbing barometer, WNW flow, and dropping temperatures at altitude for a good lapse rate. Monday's wind looks manageable with an improving lapse rate through the day, but the wind might pick up later in the day. The coastal cliffs look promising Monday afternoon.
Tuesday, the wind backs down with building high pressure. The lapse rate fades, but it should still be good enough in the local mountains with plenty of sun and light wind.
The frontal timing was somewhat in alignment with the model predictions from early this week, but the double pumps got squeezed together, so looks like we are a day early.
Weather discussion continued from:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3147
Sunday Post Mortem (5 PM)
Well, definitely off on the Sunday pre-dawn synopsis. Looked like we were about to get hit by the tail of a spinning low pressure, but the low nudged north and most of the moisture streaming from the SW tracked north of Point Conception. With more sun than expected the local lapse rate was substantially better than forecasted. The mid-day spread between Montecito Peak and La Cumbre was a dozen degrees F. From my vantage in Carpinteria, it looked like a nice cloud street along the range with some flow from the WSW at ridge line, a bit stronger later in the day? Cloudbase fluxed up and down from the upper mid 3s to the mid 4s. Might have been able to get over Casitas Pass with the tail wind if you got fuzzy on the edges and were lucky on the timing? I think the ocean was mostly calm with an occasional light draw toward the mountains.
I'm hoping at least few pilots were skeptical of my pre-dawn assessment and went up despite the negative comments. Look forward to reading a flight report or two.
_________________________________
Sunday Late Morning Update (10:50)
Looks like I might have undervalued the day in the mountains. A current look at the satellite image and radar seem to indicate most of the activity will slide to our north? La Cumbre is reporting 7 to 10. The channel is still light offshore, but the flow above the inversion is from the SW. The lapse rate is weak, but I can see low clouds trying to lift. If the wind stays down, and we get a little more sun, and it stays dry...
________________________
Sunday Pre-Dawn Synopsis / Sunday Squeeze
We have a sliver of a window between systems, so the mountains will likely be flyable early (very early) this morning, but the next system is upon us by late morning, so we didn't get much of a post-frontal effect between systems. It remains mostly pre-frontal from the SE at low altitudes with some SSW flow at ridge line. We do have some clear skies before dawn, but by mid-morning the clouds are moving in and the mountains will likely see more rain by late morning followed by rain down lower shortly after. Although the mountains may be flyable before the rain this morning, the lapse rate down low is poor. There is some south wind at ridge line, but perhaps a bit much for PGs.
The channel buoys are light from the SE, so the coastal cliff action also looks poor. There might be a little SE wind on the cliffs later today, but by then it will likely be wet. Perhaps you can get in a few passes before the drizzle arrives.
There is more rain around the corner of Point Conception with the central coast already getting wet with flow from the SW. The action will hopefully sag a bit to give us a little also.
Monday goes Post Frontal with clearing skies, climbing barometer, WNW flow, and dropping temperatures at altitude for a good lapse rate. Monday's wind looks manageable with an improving lapse rate through the day, but the wind might pick up later in the day. The coastal cliffs look promising Monday afternoon.
Tuesday, the wind backs down with building high pressure. The lapse rate fades, but it should still be good enough in the local mountains with plenty of sun and light wind.
The frontal timing was somewhat in alignment with the model predictions from early this week, but the double pumps got squeezed together, so looks like we are a day early.
Weather discussion continued from:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3147