Sunday Nudge

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Sunday Nudge

Postby sd » Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:48 am

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Sunday Post Mortem (5 PM)

Well, definitely off on the Sunday pre-dawn synopsis. Looked like we were about to get hit by the tail of a spinning low pressure, but the low nudged north and most of the moisture streaming from the SW tracked north of Point Conception. With more sun than expected the local lapse rate was substantially better than forecasted. The mid-day spread between Montecito Peak and La Cumbre was a dozen degrees F. From my vantage in Carpinteria, it looked like a nice cloud street along the range with some flow from the WSW at ridge line, a bit stronger later in the day? Cloudbase fluxed up and down from the upper mid 3s to the mid 4s. Might have been able to get over Casitas Pass with the tail wind if you got fuzzy on the edges and were lucky on the timing? I think the ocean was mostly calm with an occasional light draw toward the mountains.

I'm hoping at least few pilots were skeptical of my pre-dawn assessment and went up despite the negative comments. Look forward to reading a flight report or two.
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Sunday Late Morning Update (10:50)

Looks like I might have undervalued the day in the mountains. A current look at the satellite image and radar seem to indicate most of the activity will slide to our north? La Cumbre is reporting 7 to 10. The channel is still light offshore, but the flow above the inversion is from the SW. The lapse rate is weak, but I can see low clouds trying to lift. If the wind stays down, and we get a little more sun, and it stays dry...
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Sunday Pre-Dawn Synopsis / Sunday Squeeze
We have a sliver of a window between systems, so the mountains will likely be flyable early (very early) this morning, but the next system is upon us by late morning, so we didn't get much of a post-frontal effect between systems. It remains mostly pre-frontal from the SE at low altitudes with some SSW flow at ridge line. We do have some clear skies before dawn, but by mid-morning the clouds are moving in and the mountains will likely see more rain by late morning followed by rain down lower shortly after. Although the mountains may be flyable before the rain this morning, the lapse rate down low is poor. There is some south wind at ridge line, but perhaps a bit much for PGs.

The channel buoys are light from the SE, so the coastal cliff action also looks poor. There might be a little SE wind on the cliffs later today, but by then it will likely be wet. Perhaps you can get in a few passes before the drizzle arrives.

There is more rain around the corner of Point Conception with the central coast already getting wet with flow from the SW. The action will hopefully sag a bit to give us a little also.

Monday goes Post Frontal with clearing skies, climbing barometer, WNW flow, and dropping temperatures at altitude for a good lapse rate. Monday's wind looks manageable with an improving lapse rate through the day, but the wind might pick up later in the day. The coastal cliffs look promising Monday afternoon.

Tuesday, the wind backs down with building high pressure. The lapse rate fades, but it should still be good enough in the local mountains with plenty of sun and light wind.

The frontal timing was somewhat in alignment with the model predictions from early this week, but the double pumps got squeezed together, so looks like we are a day early.

Weather discussion continued from:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3147
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Re: Sunday Nudge

Postby gracecab » Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:43 pm

I was off Sunday so drove up from Vta. to see what I could see. Stopped in Bates at 1145 and light sw and warm. Me George, Rich watched the Mts from low and wondered if it was too unpredictable and if we'd see Truax or Neal or ?? appearing over us any moment... no such entertainment. I eventually launched west and landed by far rope on sand with a high tide...huge waves...beautiful walk back. The coast never turned on as expected with the pre frontal, but it was a great time anyway. It did look quite thermic up top but looked like west winds were moving the midlevel clouds pretty fast...was it launchable? Anyone go up and have a report?
Chris Ballmer aka gracecab
Ventura, CA
UP Kantega XC2 / Gin Verso
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Re: Sunday Nudge

Postby flychild » Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Decided to make the drive out to Marshall to join up with Matt Henzi, his friend Ryan from Oregon, Tahoe Eric and Alex. Great day down there flying with a good crew. Everyone got a lot of airtime. Hoping for a good day here tomorrow if the wind cooperates.
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Re: Go with the Flow

Postby sd » Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:07 am

flychild wrote:Decided to make the drive out to Marshall ... Great day down there flying with a good crew. Everyone got a lot of airtime.

Great Call on Sunday Neal. The forecast was for the low pressure that brought rain to the central coast to sag south and influence Santa Barbara but spare Ventura and LA, so going south got you out of the uncertain zone and into sunny skies. With Marshall and Sylmar getting raked by Santa Anna wind this work week, the pilots down south should reciprocate and take advantage of our comparatively mild conditions. Sometimes you have to chase the weather and fly where it's happening.
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