First Week of February

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First Week of February

Postby sd » Wed Feb 04, 2015 10:20 am

Weather Discussion Continued with a Pre-Dawn Sunday Synopsis at
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3149
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Thursday Morning Update

If you have a hang glider or a speed wing you can go up to the "Back of the Rack", which is a south side launch off Camino Cielo a little east of The Brotherhood. There should be plenty of south wind along the ridge, but expect it to be laminar, ridge soarable as long as you stay close to the ridge, but if you get too far below ridge line you will drop out. Don't expect to thermal up through the laminar flow. Otherwise the mountain conditions look poor through Saturday. The pronounced low altitude inversion has relaxed a tad, but is still pronounced. Above the inversion the increasing flow is prefrontal from the SE. Some high clouds are forecasted to stream overhead today, but there should be a break in the high cloud cover before the probable rain Friday night and Saturday. Rain will be heavier along the coast north of Point Conception. The south coast is currently forecasted to get a quarter to a half an inch in the first round, and about the same amount from a faster moving 2nd front that arrives late Sunday.

The SE wind is mostly above the inversion without much action on the channel buoys, so don't think the coastal cliffs will be very impressive today. Low tide is late in the afternoon, 4:41 today and 5:07 on Friday, so the tide will be going out in the afternoon.

The best outlook for the local mountains continues to be Sunday, but that is a relative assessment. Sunday's lapse rate looks weak, but not inverted. A little wind from the SW. 100 knots at airliner altitude, but less than 10 knots below 6K, and with only a so-so lapse rate perhaps limited vertical mixing. Hopefully the ocean air will pull in on Sunday for some coastal ridge soaring, but it currently looks like it might be too light to jump the gap from Bates to La Conchita.
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Wednesday Morning Review

Pine Mountain looks like the place to be today, but bring your scooter to get up the 6 mile road to launch because the gate is locked.

Wednesday is sporting a pronounced inversion down low. You might have some success launching high from West La Cumbre or EJ's, but it is questionable if that is high enough. Ojai looks more promising with better protection from the marine air, but the NAM skew-T forecast is showing the inversion going up to almost 4K. Back at Pine Mountain, the south side valley floor is 4K and the NAM skew-t forecast is calling for a stellar lapse rate with light wind from SW down low and west up higher, but only in the 5 to 7 knot range, which is less than the thermal draw strength.

On Thursday the marine inversion relaxes some but the high clouds move in and the flow starts to build pre-frontal from the SE

Friday's lapse rate is back out of the "inverted" category but marginal to ok at best, and the prefrontal flow is more robust. The NAM isn't showing high clouds for Friday, but the zone forecast is calling for mostly cloudy with prefrontal SE wind. By late Friday through Saturday we could see some rain with a brief period of post frontal transition perhaps late Saturday into Sunday.

Saturday might offer some coastal opportunities late in the day after the rain depending on the timing of the frontal passage.

Sunday looks more promising, offering a brief post frontal event followed by heavier rain Sunday night into Monday

so... unless you are willing to trek to Pine today, the rest of the work week looks generally poor for local flying in the mountains, but perhaps there will be some coastal cliff flying toward the end of the work week followed by rapidly changing conditions through the weekend that may offer some potential in the mountains on Sunday if it isn't too windy and may also present an opportunity for the Bates to Ventura run. (note that the long range timing is iffy).
Last edited by sd on Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: First Week of February

Postby gracecab » Wed Feb 04, 2015 7:03 pm

Im in this weekend hopefully mts will be a go, but if not i may work in carp but fly bates if a window opens during the pre or post frontals. But open for mtn runs first.
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Ventura, CA
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