Local Weekend 1/23-25
Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:02 pm
Sunday Morning Update:
Excellent spotter report for Saturday from flychild with additional contributions from tommygun. Like tommygun, I was in Carpinteria most of the day, but did drive up to the east edge of SB around 2:30. Carp stated out pretty calm with perhaps a little stir. By 9:30 was building from the NE. As tommygun surmised, I suspect it was dumping over Casitas Pass and Ojai was reporting variations of building east wind on the valley floor, which is unusual. By 10:30 it was gusting over 20 in Carpinteria with some occasional higher spikes, but it started backing off about 12:30ish and by 1:30 it had switched and come sharply on-shore from the SW. Didn't take a look at Bates so not sure about how cross from the west it was, but from my house mid-town it looked like it might have been good. Headed west on the 101 from Carpinteria about 2:15 and it looked good along the coast up to Summerland, but getting off the freeway at Salinas it appeared to be mostly west. The bluster slowly faded and by the time I left the tennis match about 3:45 it was light from the west all the way back to Carpinteria, which still had some fading remnants of the on-shore draw.
Sunday seems to be more of an east direction with less gusto down the Santa Clara river but perhaps more wind at our altitudes? I think we block a NE better than an East or SE. The buoys are light offshore, so perhaps we can get some switch action like Saturday, but I suspect we may not get the blockage and colorful switch we had on Saturday. The local lapse rate for Sunday looks ok at our mid soaring altitudes, but the east wind seems lower than Saturday and the east persist into the afternoon on the Nam skew-t forecast sounding, with some SE down low late in the day, and mostly east up higher.
Look forward to reading flight reports from Saturday.
We have kind of an odd system moving in on Monday and Tuesday. A spinning low pressure with some moisture from down south with sort of a monsoonal trajectory, curving from the SE toward the NW. The models don't have much experience with this sort of thing, so they are conflicted. Hopefully we'll get a little rain but offshore down slope flow might keep us dry. Should be cloudy Monday and Tuesday with clearing on Wednesday through the end of next week.
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Saturday 9:30 am Update
Well the day started out calm, but the northeast wind just swept through Carpinteria gusting into the teens, which is suspect is not a good sign of things to come in Santa Barbara. Montecito only updates once an hour, so not sure what's going on there. La Cumbre is reporting SW but SW often means SE, and the velocity is building.
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Saturday Mid Morning Update
The Winds Aloft Forecast is calling for fairly robust flow from the NE at 6K but the La Cumber Station has been light and variable, favoring upslope on the sunny side. Montecito is still draining light from the NE but she seems to be backing down so I suspect it should block and work at the lower altitudes. The Eagle Van is scheduled for Parma at 10
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Friday Afternoon Look at the Weekend
Santa Anna blowing down the Santa Clara river this afternoon, and forecasted to be significantly stronger over the weekend. No flights allowed to Fillmore, but Ojai looked good to fly west from the Nuthouse today (Friday), however it might be a bit windy for the Nuthouse on Saturday and Sunday, blowing 20 plus from the NE at ridge line and over 30 at 6K.
Santa Barbara seems to be protected from the NE wind. The lapse rate isn't as strong as Ojai, but it still looks ok as long as the NE doesn't push through. You might need to launch lower. It has been drawing up the sunny side at ridge line in the afternoon over the past few days, but the weekend has a bit more gusto around 6K. Friday was actually stronger up at airliner altitude, blowing over 100 knots, but the wind over the weekend seems to relax some up high and shift down to lower altitudes.
The lapse rate in Santa Barbara was stronger on paper Friday compared to Saturday and Sunday, but I suspect our local mountains will still block the NE flow below 4 or 5Kish both Saturday and Sunday.
Change due next week with tropical air from the south bringing some moisture, but confidence in the forecast models is currently low so we'll need to wait and see.
Excellent spotter report for Saturday from flychild with additional contributions from tommygun. Like tommygun, I was in Carpinteria most of the day, but did drive up to the east edge of SB around 2:30. Carp stated out pretty calm with perhaps a little stir. By 9:30 was building from the NE. As tommygun surmised, I suspect it was dumping over Casitas Pass and Ojai was reporting variations of building east wind on the valley floor, which is unusual. By 10:30 it was gusting over 20 in Carpinteria with some occasional higher spikes, but it started backing off about 12:30ish and by 1:30 it had switched and come sharply on-shore from the SW. Didn't take a look at Bates so not sure about how cross from the west it was, but from my house mid-town it looked like it might have been good. Headed west on the 101 from Carpinteria about 2:15 and it looked good along the coast up to Summerland, but getting off the freeway at Salinas it appeared to be mostly west. The bluster slowly faded and by the time I left the tennis match about 3:45 it was light from the west all the way back to Carpinteria, which still had some fading remnants of the on-shore draw.
Sunday seems to be more of an east direction with less gusto down the Santa Clara river but perhaps more wind at our altitudes? I think we block a NE better than an East or SE. The buoys are light offshore, so perhaps we can get some switch action like Saturday, but I suspect we may not get the blockage and colorful switch we had on Saturday. The local lapse rate for Sunday looks ok at our mid soaring altitudes, but the east wind seems lower than Saturday and the east persist into the afternoon on the Nam skew-t forecast sounding, with some SE down low late in the day, and mostly east up higher.
Look forward to reading flight reports from Saturday.
We have kind of an odd system moving in on Monday and Tuesday. A spinning low pressure with some moisture from down south with sort of a monsoonal trajectory, curving from the SE toward the NW. The models don't have much experience with this sort of thing, so they are conflicted. Hopefully we'll get a little rain but offshore down slope flow might keep us dry. Should be cloudy Monday and Tuesday with clearing on Wednesday through the end of next week.
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Saturday 9:30 am Update
Well the day started out calm, but the northeast wind just swept through Carpinteria gusting into the teens, which is suspect is not a good sign of things to come in Santa Barbara. Montecito only updates once an hour, so not sure what's going on there. La Cumbre is reporting SW but SW often means SE, and the velocity is building.
__________________________
Saturday Mid Morning Update
The Winds Aloft Forecast is calling for fairly robust flow from the NE at 6K but the La Cumber Station has been light and variable, favoring upslope on the sunny side. Montecito is still draining light from the NE but she seems to be backing down so I suspect it should block and work at the lower altitudes. The Eagle Van is scheduled for Parma at 10
___________________________________
Friday Afternoon Look at the Weekend
Santa Anna blowing down the Santa Clara river this afternoon, and forecasted to be significantly stronger over the weekend. No flights allowed to Fillmore, but Ojai looked good to fly west from the Nuthouse today (Friday), however it might be a bit windy for the Nuthouse on Saturday and Sunday, blowing 20 plus from the NE at ridge line and over 30 at 6K.
Santa Barbara seems to be protected from the NE wind. The lapse rate isn't as strong as Ojai, but it still looks ok as long as the NE doesn't push through. You might need to launch lower. It has been drawing up the sunny side at ridge line in the afternoon over the past few days, but the weekend has a bit more gusto around 6K. Friday was actually stronger up at airliner altitude, blowing over 100 knots, but the wind over the weekend seems to relax some up high and shift down to lower altitudes.
The lapse rate in Santa Barbara was stronger on paper Friday compared to Saturday and Sunday, but I suspect our local mountains will still block the NE flow below 4 or 5Kish both Saturday and Sunday.
Change due next week with tropical air from the south bringing some moisture, but confidence in the forecast models is currently low so we'll need to wait and see.