Local Weekend 1/23-25

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Local Weekend 1/23-25

Postby sd » Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:02 pm

Sunday Morning Update:

Excellent spotter report for Saturday from flychild with additional contributions from tommygun. Like tommygun, I was in Carpinteria most of the day, but did drive up to the east edge of SB around 2:30. Carp stated out pretty calm with perhaps a little stir. By 9:30 was building from the NE. As tommygun surmised, I suspect it was dumping over Casitas Pass and Ojai was reporting variations of building east wind on the valley floor, which is unusual. By 10:30 it was gusting over 20 in Carpinteria with some occasional higher spikes, but it started backing off about 12:30ish and by 1:30 it had switched and come sharply on-shore from the SW. Didn't take a look at Bates so not sure about how cross from the west it was, but from my house mid-town it looked like it might have been good. Headed west on the 101 from Carpinteria about 2:15 and it looked good along the coast up to Summerland, but getting off the freeway at Salinas it appeared to be mostly west. The bluster slowly faded and by the time I left the tennis match about 3:45 it was light from the west all the way back to Carpinteria, which still had some fading remnants of the on-shore draw.

Sunday seems to be more of an east direction with less gusto down the Santa Clara river but perhaps more wind at our altitudes? I think we block a NE better than an East or SE. The buoys are light offshore, so perhaps we can get some switch action like Saturday, but I suspect we may not get the blockage and colorful switch we had on Saturday. The local lapse rate for Sunday looks ok at our mid soaring altitudes, but the east wind seems lower than Saturday and the east persist into the afternoon on the Nam skew-t forecast sounding, with some SE down low late in the day, and mostly east up higher.

Look forward to reading flight reports from Saturday.

We have kind of an odd system moving in on Monday and Tuesday. A spinning low pressure with some moisture from down south with sort of a monsoonal trajectory, curving from the SE toward the NW. The models don't have much experience with this sort of thing, so they are conflicted. Hopefully we'll get a little rain but offshore down slope flow might keep us dry. Should be cloudy Monday and Tuesday with clearing on Wednesday through the end of next week.
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Saturday 9:30 am Update

Well the day started out calm, but the northeast wind just swept through Carpinteria gusting into the teens, which is suspect is not a good sign of things to come in Santa Barbara. Montecito only updates once an hour, so not sure what's going on there. La Cumbre is reporting SW but SW often means SE, and the velocity is building.
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Saturday Mid Morning Update

The Winds Aloft Forecast is calling for fairly robust flow from the NE at 6K but the La Cumber Station has been light and variable, favoring upslope on the sunny side. Montecito is still draining light from the NE but she seems to be backing down so I suspect it should block and work at the lower altitudes. The Eagle Van is scheduled for Parma at 10
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Friday Afternoon Look at the Weekend

Santa Anna blowing down the Santa Clara river this afternoon, and forecasted to be significantly stronger over the weekend. No flights allowed to Fillmore, but Ojai looked good to fly west from the Nuthouse today (Friday), however it might be a bit windy for the Nuthouse on Saturday and Sunday, blowing 20 plus from the NE at ridge line and over 30 at 6K.

Santa Barbara seems to be protected from the NE wind. The lapse rate isn't as strong as Ojai, but it still looks ok as long as the NE doesn't push through. You might need to launch lower. It has been drawing up the sunny side at ridge line in the afternoon over the past few days, but the weekend has a bit more gusto around 6K. Friday was actually stronger up at airliner altitude, blowing over 100 knots, but the wind over the weekend seems to relax some up high and shift down to lower altitudes.

The lapse rate in Santa Barbara was stronger on paper Friday compared to Saturday and Sunday, but I suspect our local mountains will still block the NE flow below 4 or 5Kish both Saturday and Sunday.

Change due next week with tropical air from the south bringing some moisture, but confidence in the forecast models is currently low so we'll need to wait and see.
Last edited by sd on Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Local Weekend Outlook 1/23-25

Postby flychild » Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:13 pm

Beautiful day but I decided not to launch, one of the very few who chose to drive down. For the most part it looked like a great day to fly in SB, similar to yesterday but more wind from the east AND west. And I think most everyone had nice flights. But there were a few indications that the very strong santa anas might be pushing into our flying arena. FWIW wind gusts to 76 mph were reported in the west end of the Santa Monica Mtns today. Usually we can fly when strong NE blows because our mtns block, and with a good lapse the heating on the front of the range will also help block those winds. And for the most part that was the case today. But after 11am it was still blowing east down through the casitas pass according to the wind talkers and there were reports of north wind gusting at Elings into the teens. Pilots launched and climbed out in the most beautiful looking smooth lift at skyport, but shortly after a VERY strong cycle came through and persisted for quite a long time before blowing itself out. This was not a "normal" thermic cycle. I took this as an indication that the NE wind was coming through somewhere causing mixing and a lot of displacement, enough so that we got that strong and long cycle on launch. The west winds were stronger today as well. So it seemed like there was the possibility for some messy air out there in places where these opposing forces were colliding. Some pilots reported zero penetration over Parma (~20 mph winds out of the west). But in the next moment it would be fine. Most everyone seemed to have a nice time of it today and I hope I didn't discourage anyone from flying who wishes they had. Do you feel lucky? Today I didn't. We will see what tomorrow brings.
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Re: Local Weekend Outlook 1/23-25

Postby tommygun » Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:11 pm

good to hear that everyone made it out ok. I decided not to roll the dice on a strong Santa Ana day. I noticed a good breeze in Carpinteria before the van was scheduled to meet at Parma. I figured it was spilling through hwy 150 from Ojai. I wasn't sure how far up to the west it would go but after some great days of flying during the week, I figured why push it! I hoped for some Bates soaring but I don't think it happened. I heard there was a bunch of other pilots waiting at Bates but no one flew. oh well, there always tomorrow if these winds back down.
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Re: Local Weekend 1/23-25

Postby gracecab » Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:51 pm

Well, i know flychild flew, because as i was driving s 101 through Summerland, (after 3 hrs at training hill practicing side hill landings and whatnot) i look through the Eucalyptus and sho nuff, the man, the myth, about 150 ft, gently gliding towards summerland park? over the beach... but we'll let him tell the whole story from the beginning...
Chris Ballmer aka gracecab
Ventura, CA
UP Kantega XC2 / Gin Verso
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Re: Local Weekend 1/23-25

Postby flychild » Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:04 pm

Today we had less east and less west wind, so overall it was a much nicer day to fly. One of our visiting pilots reported that he "thought he was going to die" at one point during yesterday's flight. On his way out to Padaro he encountered the east west shear line and apparently it was no fun. But other pilots had beautiful flights yesterday with no problems. It just depended on where you were and when. Today we had a good lapse with solid thermals. Climbed to the high 3s over TF and got on course to the east. As I got to Romero the west was pushing a bit and so I jumped into the lee of the ridgeline looking for a thermal but instead I found a strong downslope wind of north spilling through the canyon. Tried pushing back to the windward side but by the time I was out of the sink I was well below 2K and decided to glide out for the beach instead of looking for a low save. Tahoe Eric was chasing behind me and did much better, connecting up to the back ridge and making powerlines with 4700. He came back to land Padaro. Ojai was definitely doable today if you didn't get flushed by the north wind. Good thermals were out there. Most of the pilots who flew today reported getting flushed as well once the north wind pushed down. Thanks to JB for the retrieve. Looking forward to some post frontal conditions this week if it shapes up.
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