Friday - Sunday mid January

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Sunday Morning Update:
The weather seems to be progressing as forecasted by the earlier models. Saturday was a bit windy at ridge line early, but it backed down and pilots launched from the Skyport, moving around a bit in buoyant air, but it was apparently weak. I think the early ridge line wind was a local laminar compression venturi because the velocity was substantially higher than either the balloon or the forecast soundings. The offshore push on Saturday might have helped the lapse rate a bit.
Sunday has less of an early offshore push with lighter winds over the ridge, which might be good and bad. The lapse rate based on the NAM skew-t forecast sounding is weaker than Saturday, but we do have some sun, and the early wind is light, perhaps building a bit from the west in the afternoon, but there isn't currently much wind on water or at altitude. It also wasn't as cold down low this morning as Saturday, so all mixed in it might be a wash and marginally soarable, but I suspect the XC potential is limited. We also have some thin high clouds, but they may not be much of a factor.
Although it isn't a particularly good day for the XC pilots, it looks flyable and suitable for the novice pilots to get a little air.
Monday and Tuesday continue to deteriorate, perhaps getting slightly better on Wednesday, but still weak. Thursday and Friday might offer better conditions.
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Friday Pre-Dawn Perception
I suspect the soaring conditions were better earlier in the week. The air at ridge line has warmed more than down low, so the lapse rate looks weak and continues to deteriorate through the weekend. The wind below ridge line continues to be light through Saturday, so it might be marginally soarable and will likely be suitable for the novice pilots in the mountains, but the XC potential looks poor. Sunday has a little onshore push and is unseasonably warm at 4K. The skew-t forecast sounding for Sunday is discouraging, so If you want to fly this weekend, Friday looks slightly better than Saturday, but still weak, and Sunday looks like it might be hard to stay up.
Sunday Morning Update:
The weather seems to be progressing as forecasted by the earlier models. Saturday was a bit windy at ridge line early, but it backed down and pilots launched from the Skyport, moving around a bit in buoyant air, but it was apparently weak. I think the early ridge line wind was a local laminar compression venturi because the velocity was substantially higher than either the balloon or the forecast soundings. The offshore push on Saturday might have helped the lapse rate a bit.
Sunday has less of an early offshore push with lighter winds over the ridge, which might be good and bad. The lapse rate based on the NAM skew-t forecast sounding is weaker than Saturday, but we do have some sun, and the early wind is light, perhaps building a bit from the west in the afternoon, but there isn't currently much wind on water or at altitude. It also wasn't as cold down low this morning as Saturday, so all mixed in it might be a wash and marginally soarable, but I suspect the XC potential is limited. We also have some thin high clouds, but they may not be much of a factor.
Although it isn't a particularly good day for the XC pilots, it looks flyable and suitable for the novice pilots to get a little air.
Monday and Tuesday continue to deteriorate, perhaps getting slightly better on Wednesday, but still weak. Thursday and Friday might offer better conditions.
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Friday Pre-Dawn Perception
I suspect the soaring conditions were better earlier in the week. The air at ridge line has warmed more than down low, so the lapse rate looks weak and continues to deteriorate through the weekend. The wind below ridge line continues to be light through Saturday, so it might be marginally soarable and will likely be suitable for the novice pilots in the mountains, but the XC potential looks poor. Sunday has a little onshore push and is unseasonably warm at 4K. The skew-t forecast sounding for Sunday is discouraging, so If you want to fly this weekend, Friday looks slightly better than Saturday, but still weak, and Sunday looks like it might be hard to stay up.