Friday - Sunday mid January

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Friday - Sunday mid January

Postby sd » Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:24 am

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Sunday Morning Update:

The weather seems to be progressing as forecasted by the earlier models. Saturday was a bit windy at ridge line early, but it backed down and pilots launched from the Skyport, moving around a bit in buoyant air, but it was apparently weak. I think the early ridge line wind was a local laminar compression venturi because the velocity was substantially higher than either the balloon or the forecast soundings. The offshore push on Saturday might have helped the lapse rate a bit.

Sunday has less of an early offshore push with lighter winds over the ridge, which might be good and bad. The lapse rate based on the NAM skew-t forecast sounding is weaker than Saturday, but we do have some sun, and the early wind is light, perhaps building a bit from the west in the afternoon, but there isn't currently much wind on water or at altitude. It also wasn't as cold down low this morning as Saturday, so all mixed in it might be a wash and marginally soarable, but I suspect the XC potential is limited. We also have some thin high clouds, but they may not be much of a factor.

Although it isn't a particularly good day for the XC pilots, it looks flyable and suitable for the novice pilots to get a little air.

Monday and Tuesday continue to deteriorate, perhaps getting slightly better on Wednesday, but still weak. Thursday and Friday might offer better conditions.
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Friday Pre-Dawn Perception

I suspect the soaring conditions were better earlier in the week. The air at ridge line has warmed more than down low, so the lapse rate looks weak and continues to deteriorate through the weekend. The wind below ridge line continues to be light through Saturday, so it might be marginally soarable and will likely be suitable for the novice pilots in the mountains, but the XC potential looks poor. Sunday has a little onshore push and is unseasonably warm at 4K. The skew-t forecast sounding for Sunday is discouraging, so If you want to fly this weekend, Friday looks slightly better than Saturday, but still weak, and Sunday looks like it might be hard to stay up.
Last edited by sd on Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Friday - Sunday mid January

Postby galleta » Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:09 am

magical 3 days that got better and better even though temps aloft got warmer and pressure got higher. all 3 days were easier to get around then hitting a fat kid in dodgeball

Tuesday: jumped skyport before 10:30 and couldnt get above 3200 for an hour. went RR - TF 3 times then clouds started poppin and slow climbs in, out, around and thru the top of big puffies to 4200. glories everywhere! Beautiful cloudplay and they were poppin at every peak. eagle henzi tagged vor and then he and dean both toplanded skyport to retrieve cars

Wednesday: jumped ej early and had light climbs to 4100. flushed hard at alternator due to periods of north wind. it was blowing both ways at ej but everyone eventually got off. got back to RR and easy climbs to 4400. floated west again (this time out front) to No Name and got 4600 and took a scenic glide to parma and back to work

Thursday: Weather looked a little less promising but eagle van was more down then 4 flat tires to go for a flight. a handful of us quickly jumped ej in light cycles about 1130 and all went to 5k+. i heard one get 5600. flychild, eagle henzi, eagle brian and i floated down to the VOR and got about the same again. eagle henzi and eagle brian made the right call and jumped back to the Brotherhood from EJ bowl on the way back and held the high line all the way to Ojai landing at nordoff high school. Neil and i joined hammer down in the wind scrub at thermal factory and could never get above 3200 again. it ended up blowin good over the back(i think the high line huggers had some convergence help) and the rest of the ej crew had to drive down to skyport to launch. bobp made summerland and howser made padaro earlier on. killa!!!

thanks to eagle for the magic carpet ride up the hill 3 days in a row!
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Re: Friday - Sunday mid January

Postby Dizzy » Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:40 pm

We flew today from SkyPort to West Bowl and back. Surprisingly no single soul at Parma LZ in the morning. Since lapse rate supposed to be light we drove to EJ Bowl, expecting extended sledder, but it was still NE at 10 decreasing to 5-7 mph, after 30 minutes of wait we drove back to SkyPort and launched right away around 12. Easy climb and connect to R&R. Spent some time there and off to Cathedral, air was buoyant, but we can't get above 4K, next stop West Bowl, wind was start switching from east to west, easy glide back to Tit to meet few HG and PGs. I was thinking to fly further east, but near Antenna Farm and Round House there was no even single beep, hmmm, still better than expected, landed at Parma after almost 2 hours flight. On a sad note, broke 1 line on launch, in a brakes cascade near canopy, did not even noticed until packed my glider into the bag.
Alex
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Re: Friday - Sunday mid January

Postby gracecab » Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:21 pm

I launched about 1145. Sunday. Did a sledder with a few other sledder-takers at Skyport. (aka Rockport) A couple threaded the needle to left of antenna building, between TF and Antenna farm and boated around towards Parma.

One made it to beach on a straight shot - apparantly he had model rocket engines in his boots. I was practicing tighter turns after hitting a couple thermals... very light to no wind with high cloud cover, but light sun too...just enough to get a light cycle every 5 to 10 minutes to launch.

Dave B., Neil and I drove back up to get summore of that adrenaline rush, and 2 of 3 of us got off... I didn't like the light cycles so didn't launch this time! Good times. :)

In retrospect I learned that watching others, hawk, etc. can help understand the conditions better....
So here was the heirarchy:

1. Turkey vulture
2. Hawk
3. guy with engines on boots who went to beach
4. Dave B/Neil
5. GI Joe toy figurine with parachute attached
6. GI Joe toy figurine with no parachute attached
7. Brick with GI Joes parachute attached
8. Me
Chris Ballmer aka gracecab
Ventura, CA
UP Kantega XC2 / Gin Verso
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Re: Friday - Sunday mid January

Postby tommygun » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:43 pm

Great forecasting last week Sundowner! Hopefully you have something good to forecast for this weekend!
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