Cloudy Weekend Prognosis

[sd]

Sunday Morning Update

Our slight chance of sprinkles has turned into a continual Seattle type drizzle with measurable accumulation. It may dry out some this afternoon, but for me it looks like a better day for football.
__________________________
Saturday Morning Perception

We have some moist but not really wet air wafting over us with a slight chance of a sprinkle or two. The lapse rate is good, but not stellar, so we will likely need some heating to make it work. The broad upper flow is from the west, but the lower flow at our altitudes is from the SE. It's windy at La Cumbre Peak this morning and if that trend continues, Saturday might be a bust. There is some hope for a short flight this afternoon if we get a little sun between systems.

On Sunday, the lower level lapse rate below 3K looks better and the wind slackens before clocking around to come light from the west, so if it doesn't get wet, Sunday might work for local flights. Sunday still looks pretty cloudy with a slight chance of light rain early, but we may not have Saturday's wind.

Even it is cloudy, Sunday will likely be good for the students in the mountains because the wind is light and without much sun the air should be smoothish

__________________________
Thursday Mid-Moring Update

The Eagle Bus is scheduled for Parma at 11:15

Today looks like it might be the better day of the next several because it should start to cloud up this afternoon in advance of mostly cloudy skies through the weekend with a 20% chance of light rain. The lapse rate is a tad weak, so you might want to launch high. The wind looks light and variable early and light from the NW above the ridgeline later today. The ocean looks calm this morning, but there was a wind line trying to come onshore around the Biltmore Wednesday afternoon. Looks like a good for the students.

The lapse rate looks better on Saturday, but the moisture may be an issue. Saturday is light from the SE at our soaring altitudes on the skew-T sounding. The models are still in some disagreement about the potential for rain this weekend. The good lapse rate continues on Sunday, but the NAM is calling for considerable cloudiness and possible light rain. The NAM is calling for the wind to clock around more from the east on Sunday, perhaps a couple knots stronger than Saturday.
____________________________
Wednesday Morning Perception

Tuesday was windy from the east in our local mountains. It's still a bit windy from the east this morning, but the forecast is predicting the wind will back down this afternoon before clocking around to come light from the west on Thursday. With continued warm weather down low today (Wednesday), the lapse rate is ok but not stellar. Cooling starts on Thursday at all altitudes, so the lapse rate is similar, but there may be some high clouds in advance of an approaching dry trough that should move through Friday with only a slight chance of a sprinkle. Instability is forecast to continue into the weekend.

Both Eagle and Fly Above All have posted for Elings, but no mention of a bus to the mountains on Wednesday.