The temperature continues to build under high pressure today, but more so at altitude than on the surface, so the inversion that set up yesterday is more pronounced today. Surface temperatures are forecasted to be 4 or 5 degrees (F) warmer today than yesterday, but the 6K temperature is up 8 or 9 degrees. With seasonal temperatures below the inversion, it should still be soarable over the lower prime points like the Antenna Farm. The Nam model is forecasting the inversion to start around 2500 feet, however, Saturday's model was showing the inversion above 3K but I think the top of the lift eventually reached 4.
- NAM Forecast Model Sounding for Sunday / The converging green (dew point) and red (temperature) lines indicate some high clouds are likely. / Also note the sharp and pronounced inversion (actually, it's more of a flat temperature profile) above 2500
Expect Sunday's air to be lumpy under high pressure, but not as sharp or strong as Friday.
The wind is forecast to be light and the buoys are concurring, so hopefully the weak thermals will hold together. There is a little push from the north at ridgeline in the afternoon. La Cumbre was only reporting 3 mph from the NE at 7:45, but at 8:45 the reports are gusting to 9 from the NE. Still expect it to be launchable at EJ's around midday, but EJ's is likely above the inversion, so I wouldn't expect to get up from there.
Could be a gaggle day at the Antenna Farm.
By Monday the surface temperature catches up the temperature rise at altitude to kick out the weekend inversion.
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Saturday 4 PM update:
Didn't hear any pilot reports yet, but from my vantage in Carpinteria it looks like I under called the max altitude by a thousand feet. The clouds lingered longer than I thought they would, and base continued to rise up to about 4Kish? before they finally evaporated around 2 pm.
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Saturday Morning Perception
The Eagle Bus is heading up from Parma at 10:30, which seems like a good time.
No need to launch high with the top of the lift somewhere around 3K. With light and variable wind above the range this morning, and Debbie reporting light SE at 8:30 am, EJs will likely be launchable, but there is a pronounced inversion above the Skyport, so don't expect to climb much higher than 3K.
It is still a cool air mass down low, so the Antenna Farm should be soarable. Will likely be ok for the students launching from the Skyport, but note that like Friday the thermals will likely have some punch due to the sharp contrast between the puddle temperatures and the neighboring air mass. Saturday's temperature contrast is less than Friday's, so the punch should be less, but the lift won't be as good either. There is some early stratus, which might help to moderate the heating and smooth the edges, but I expect it will burn off because the relative humidity is mostly low with some pockets of higher humidity.
Sunday is still inverted up high, but transitioning to a more seasonal temperatures, so I don't think it will work as good as Saturday down low. Sunday may have a few high clouds.
By Monday, a Santa Anna develops to break the inversion and flights from Ojai back to SB look possible. The lapse rate continues to strengthen on Tuesday coupled with more east wind.[attachment=0
