Friday, Jan 2nd / Skyport to Carpinteria

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Friday, Jan 2nd / Skyport to Carpinteria

Postby sd » Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:55 am

Link to Tom's log for Friday, Jan 2nd
http://paraglide.net/log/15/01-02/1_skyport_to_cate_w_peter.htm
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Friday Morning Assessment

The forecast models seem to be on track for a fading lapse rate, but the air mass is still cold so there should be thermal activity. Expect some punch similar to yesterday because the thermals are driven up into the cold air by local hot spots compared to a day when the rise is more supported by decreasing temperatures at altitude.

The wind seems to be very light, and the winds aloft report is calling for light and variable in Santa Barbara all day, but the Nam model is calling for a little west compared to a little east on Thursday. The zone forecast are also calling for a little west wind in the afternoon. If the wind stays light the thermals will be more organized, but if the west wind comes up some expect it to get a bit trashy.

The air mass is still cold down low on Saturday, but warming further above the range, so the altitudes will likely deteriorate each day through Sunday. I suspect yesterday was better than today, and today will be better than Saturday.

I think we can get at least to Carpinteria, and possibly over Casitas Pass today despite the fading lapse rate because we should get higher over the higher terrain and with a little west wind, but hopefully not enough to trash the thermals, we might get good glides.

Without much north wind and a cold air mass, it should be launchable early and soarable by 11ish? The Eagle Van is scheduled for Parma at 10 which seems like a good time.
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