Super Cold End to 2014

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Super Cold End to 2014

Postby sd » Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:53 am

Thursday Morning Updated posted at:
http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3122#p9261
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Previously Titled Thursday 1/1 and Super Cold Front Tuesday 12/30
Tuesday Morning Perception Correction

I have to correct my misperception about the temperature below. When glancing at the skew-T charts yesterday I made an error and was off on the temperature by 10 degrees C (a huge mistake). The temperature at our soaring altitudes is actually super cold today. My initial posting was forecasting Wednesday and Thursday to be the strongest lapse rate days with Wednesday possibly too windy. I didn't even take a close look at Tuesday because I thought it would be pre-frontal, but as noted below, we have more of a sagging low rather than sweeping low, so we aren't getting a prefrontal effect.

Tuesday (today) looks ballistic with the lift going to 6 or 7K early in Santa Barbara, then 8K midday, and finally over 10K late in the afternoon. The wind may actually be manageable below a moderate inversion that is offering some protection from the 100 mph plus winds above 20K. I also suspect the strong thermals will have enough mass to anchor and block the wind inside the thermals. I think most of us have fancied a day dream or two about flying to the Islands. If you are going to give it a try, today may be the day? Of course what goes up must come down, so there will likely be significant sink on the glides.

The lapse rate fades through Sunday and the inversion lowers. The lift goes really high again on Wednesday, but with less of a protective inversion the lower level north wind may be a bit much despite decreasing winds above 20K due to more vertical mixing pulling the upper level wind down.

New Years day continues to show a good lower level lapse rate with some NE up higher. I'll give it another look tomorrow and consider the Nuthouse since we may have some takers.

The lapse rate is weaker on Friday, but there is some west at the lower soaring altitudes, so an eastbound leg continues to be a possibility on Friday.

I'd love to fly today (Tuesday), but no way to punt my task list
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Monday Morning Projection

We have a cool front (not as cold as the last event) (Correction: it is actually super cold) coming through tomorrow (Tuesday) night. A little unusual in that the cold air is from an inland low that is sagging south rather than sweeping north of us from west to east, so we don't have our typical prefrontal push from the south. The progression is for strong winds Tuesday night, but backing off quickly by midday Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon looks like a maybe for local flights if the wind backs off soon enough, but it will likely be too late to head xc.

The lapse rate fades throughout the rest of the week as a slowly building Santa Anna event peaks on Sunday. Thursday's lapse rate looks good, so coupled with light wind and clear skies it should work for getting up and out to Elings for the New Year fly in. We could possibly reach Elings from the Nuthouse if you are looking for more of an adventure and like to kike. Friday might still be good enough to squeak over Casitas Pass eastbound but the connections will likely be marginal compared to a big altitude day when it is easy. By Saturday, the lapse rate is getting weak, but it should be ok in the SB mountains for the students.
Last edited by sd on Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Thursday, 1/1

Postby timobarker » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:39 pm

Hey SD, I'm interested in flying over Casitas pass for the fly-in on New Years. Let me know if that's what you're gunning for. Going to be camping in carp the night before, so I might try to hitch a ride down there with somebody.

Thanks,
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Re: Thursday, 1/1

Postby flychild » Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:48 pm

Nuthouse to Elings. I think it's a plan.
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Re: Super Cold Front Tuesday 12/30

Postby cortfly » Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:50 am

So, anyone thinking of going up this afternoon ?
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