Saturday, 12/27

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Saturday Morning Pre-Dawn Update

Slowly evolving Santa Anna Cycle. For those that flew Friday, the good news is you likely had the better day numbers wise. For those that had to wait for the weekend, the good news is that Saturday will likely be good enough.

The lapse rate and altitudes continue to fade after the front that moved through Xmas Eve. A little shorter soaring window on Saturday compared to Friday, but Neal was in the air for over 5 hours Friday. Saturday's window should be long enough for a short westbound leg followed by an eastbound run to Santa Paula Peak.

Friday's Nam Model updated by flight time and the altitudes were significantly better than I expected based on the earlier models. Pilots on Friday got to over 6K in Santa Barbara and 8K in Ojai. The pronounced inversion above our soaring altitudes inhibited vertical mixing and shielded us from the strong north wind up higher on Friday, and it looks like it will do the same on Saturday, but the inversion is lower so the altitudes will likely be around 5Kish in SB and 6K through Casitas Pass and Ojai.

There is a little more lower level SE in the winds aloft forecast on Saturday compared to Friday, so an early westbound leg might be advisable

I was worried about potential north wind on the ridge line Friday, but it drew in solid from the south until late in the afternoon and the FlyAboveAll crew reportedly did ok launching early from the VOR. Debbie is down again this morning (Saturday), but the Montecito Station is reporting much less early morning NE drainage wind compared to Friday

Saturday's light-off might be a little later compared to Friday with cold air down low early. The lapse rate is generally weaker with warmer temperatures aloft by 7 or 8 degrees F, but still ok in Santa Barbara. Ojai's lower level lapse rate is weak until the afternoon due to the cold air down low.

It was cycling in good at the Skyport when we arrived before 10 o'clock on Friday, but pilots launching into seemingly good cycles about 10:30 had to struggle for awhile. By 11 o'clock Friday, everyone was boosting up to big altitude. I suspect we might push the launch time on Saturday back to 11ish? 9:30 at east beach, 9:45 at Parma, for a 9:55 roll to be on launch about 10:15ish?:

On Sunday, the lapse rate deteriorates further. The Santa Anna fades and high clouds move overhead in advance of an approaching broad low pressure system. Hopefully Dr Cort an Dr. Ron won't have to work on Saturday.