Friday 12/26 Bus Load over Casitas Pass
Posted: Wed Dec 24, 2014 5:39 pmSD's Xmas Weekend Summary posted at:
http://paraglide.net/log/14/12-26/2_summary.htm
Including an item index with a table of links to the weekend's
Flight Articles, Track Logs, Photos, and Videos
http://paraglide.net/log/amigo/0_occasion/2014/12-26_n_27/weekend_item_index.htm
_________________
Early Friday Update
the models are still on track
Debbie has been down since Thursday afternoon. La Cumbre Peak is likely blowing OTB at Dawn, but not gusting to 28. The Winds Aloft Forecast is calling for LnV up through 6K this morning after a little heating. Dress Warm.
Not sure if the Eagle Van is running a bus. They posted for Elings but not Parma. Jonathan and Tavis are coming up from LA, and Max is reportedly running his truck. On schedule or earlier for 9 am at East Beach.
FlyAboveAll is reportedly meeting at the T for the VOR. Not sure which weather indicators they are looking at, but I'd recommend staying away from the ridge lines and San Marcos Pass. We want to maximize protection from the north wind which will be stronger up high and through the passes.
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Thursday night update for Friday
The forecast seems to be tracking the earlier model predictions. Expect it to be cold and windy Thursday night, but back down and block quickly at the lower altitudes Friday morning. The lower level lapse rate is very strong, so expect the lift and the sink to follow suit. The thermal strength will likely be intimidating for the rookie pilots midday, so I'd recommend they launch early before the temperature spread goes ballistic. I'm scheduled to do a tandem flight with Peter, so being a tad heavy I might wait until 10:30 to launch rather than trying to get off around 10ish. Unless someone wants to push the meet time up, I'll likely shoot for 9 am at east beach to arrive at Parma around 9:15 for a 9:25 roll to be on launch at the Skyport about 9:45? Dress warm.
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Wednesday Afternoon Speculation about Friday
Friday looks like it has the potential for reasonable alignment.
A cold front is moving through tonight (Wednesday) with clearing skies on Xmas day (Thursday). The lapse rate Thursday afternoon is improving, but the wind may be an issue.
By Friday, a Santa Anna is setting up some offshore flow down the Santa Clara River, which might be a dead end. Friday's lapse rate looks strong down lower with freezing level below 6K and a pronounced inversion above. There is some stiff north wind up higher, but the sharp inversion should inhibit vertical mixing so the forecasted lower level winds below ridge line are mild from the east early and light from the west by midday. The inversion and upper level north wind should cap the max altitude somewhere around 5K, rising to 6K through Casitas Pass and Ojai.
There is some east wind forecast for Ojai early, but by the afternoon it slackens some. Higher up above Ojai, the wind is stronger from the north. The midlevel east flow in Ojai drops down to zilch by the end of the day, but the Santa Clara looks like it blows down river all day at least through Fillmore. The lapse rate in the Santa Clara is good up to about 5 K, so if we can plug up to Santa Paula Peak we might be able to bridge across toward South Mountain and Somis, but 5K is a little low to get across the river. Personally I'd be hesitant to head out into the river without a wind report from Santa Paula and Fillmore.
Looks like it should be soarable pretty early in Santa Barbara on Friday, sometime around 10ish. To maximize the day, I'd recommend an 8:45am meet at East Beach to rendezvous about 9 at Parma for a 9:15 roll to be on launch at the Skyport by 9:35ish. The first leg from the Skyport will likely be westbound, so a later meet time will work also.
Saturday also looks ok down lower in Santa Barbara, but not as good as Friday with a fading lapse rate and earlier flow from the west.
http://paraglide.net/log/14/12-26/2_summary.htm
Including an item index with a table of links to the weekend's
Flight Articles, Track Logs, Photos, and Videos
http://paraglide.net/log/amigo/0_occasion/2014/12-26_n_27/weekend_item_index.htm
_________________
Early Friday Update
the models are still on track
Debbie has been down since Thursday afternoon. La Cumbre Peak is likely blowing OTB at Dawn, but not gusting to 28. The Winds Aloft Forecast is calling for LnV up through 6K this morning after a little heating. Dress Warm.
Not sure if the Eagle Van is running a bus. They posted for Elings but not Parma. Jonathan and Tavis are coming up from LA, and Max is reportedly running his truck. On schedule or earlier for 9 am at East Beach.
FlyAboveAll is reportedly meeting at the T for the VOR. Not sure which weather indicators they are looking at, but I'd recommend staying away from the ridge lines and San Marcos Pass. We want to maximize protection from the north wind which will be stronger up high and through the passes.
______________________________
Thursday night update for Friday
The forecast seems to be tracking the earlier model predictions. Expect it to be cold and windy Thursday night, but back down and block quickly at the lower altitudes Friday morning. The lower level lapse rate is very strong, so expect the lift and the sink to follow suit. The thermal strength will likely be intimidating for the rookie pilots midday, so I'd recommend they launch early before the temperature spread goes ballistic. I'm scheduled to do a tandem flight with Peter, so being a tad heavy I might wait until 10:30 to launch rather than trying to get off around 10ish. Unless someone wants to push the meet time up, I'll likely shoot for 9 am at east beach to arrive at Parma around 9:15 for a 9:25 roll to be on launch at the Skyport about 9:45? Dress warm.
___________________________________________
Wednesday Afternoon Speculation about Friday
Friday looks like it has the potential for reasonable alignment.
A cold front is moving through tonight (Wednesday) with clearing skies on Xmas day (Thursday). The lapse rate Thursday afternoon is improving, but the wind may be an issue.
By Friday, a Santa Anna is setting up some offshore flow down the Santa Clara River, which might be a dead end. Friday's lapse rate looks strong down lower with freezing level below 6K and a pronounced inversion above. There is some stiff north wind up higher, but the sharp inversion should inhibit vertical mixing so the forecasted lower level winds below ridge line are mild from the east early and light from the west by midday. The inversion and upper level north wind should cap the max altitude somewhere around 5K, rising to 6K through Casitas Pass and Ojai.
There is some east wind forecast for Ojai early, but by the afternoon it slackens some. Higher up above Ojai, the wind is stronger from the north. The midlevel east flow in Ojai drops down to zilch by the end of the day, but the Santa Clara looks like it blows down river all day at least through Fillmore. The lapse rate in the Santa Clara is good up to about 5 K, so if we can plug up to Santa Paula Peak we might be able to bridge across toward South Mountain and Somis, but 5K is a little low to get across the river. Personally I'd be hesitant to head out into the river without a wind report from Santa Paula and Fillmore.
Looks like it should be soarable pretty early in Santa Barbara on Friday, sometime around 10ish. To maximize the day, I'd recommend an 8:45am meet at East Beach to rendezvous about 9 at Parma for a 9:15 roll to be on launch at the Skyport by 9:35ish. The first leg from the Skyport will likely be westbound, so a later meet time will work also.
Saturday also looks ok down lower in Santa Barbara, but not as good as Friday with a fading lapse rate and earlier flow from the west.
