Saturday 12/6 / Lifting Cloudbase / SB to Fillmore

[sd]

Good day with light wind and early low cloudbase that broke up and lifted.
Big turnout with a lot of pilots running back and forth, landing in numerous locations.
SD flew from the Skyport to the Pained Cave Windmill and back to top land at the Skyport
then re-launched and flew a couple miles past Fillmore.
60+ miles around 1 turnpoint

Link to Tom's flight article for Saturday
http://paraglide.net/log/14/12-06/1_skyport_painted_cave_fillmore.htm
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East Beach at 9:50. Some concern that the Eagle Bus my be overloaded.
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Saturday morning perception:

The Eagle Bus is scheduled to roll from Parma at 10:15 with pilots meeting at 9:50 to walk the LZ. Looks like a good day for the students.

Post Frontal, but more of a warm front than a cold front, so the air isn't cold. The wind is light. The lapse rate is so-so, perhaps a bit weak, but positive without an inversion. The humidity is high but the barometer is rising and it is drying out.

Clear at 8 am, but with the high humidity I would expect low cloudbase once the mountains start to lift. With light wind from the north above the ridge, we could see several iterations of OD and clearing with lifting cloudbase later in the day. The mechanics are: convective lifting will squeeze the moisture out of the air, but the lapse rate is on the weak side, so once it ODs the convection shuts down and clouds are broken up by the light north flow and the cycle repeats?

Sunday is higher pressure under a mild ridge with lower level marine status in the morning burning off later in the day. Both Saturday look flyable along the SB front range, but not stellar. The ocean is mild to calm both days, so don't expect Bates to do much. The full moon heightened tide is going out all day so there should be some beach below Wilcox in the afternoon.