Paging Dr. Truax

[cortfly]

SD, could we have the pleasure of your prognostications for the weekend ?
Cort

[sd]

Saturday 11/1/2014 Highlights
Skyport to the Antenna Farm to Cathedral to Ventura State Beach
Article, Photos, and Track Log posted at:
http://paraglide.net/log/14/11-01/1_skyport_to_ventura.htm
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Sunday Morning 8am PST Update:
The best call for local flying today is likely the Brotherhood for Hang Gliders. There might be too much wind in the mountains for Paragliders. The lapse rate is strong, but there is some north wind aloft that is forecasted to increase during the day. The barometer is climbing and the relative humidity is dropping.

Bates continues to be a potential possibility, but we all know Bates is fickle. The lapse rate is strong enough that it might pull in some channel wind. There isn't a lot of wind in the channel this morning, but the forecast is calling for it to increase.

It might work better further east away from Point Conception. The winds aloft forecast is much lower for Edwards and Ontario, so Ojai, Sylmar, and Marshall might work. I suspect no one has a permit for Ojai. Kagel has some exposure to the I5 corridor. Marshall may be the best bet because it is a lower launch with a high ridge behind it. Edward Skow is likely heading east with Andy Beem and his crew.

I'll be doing a school project with my daughter, so I'll be a spectator today, but I do suspect the Brotherhood could yield impressive altitude in the south side rebound after going OTB.
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Saturday Highlights
Skyport to the Antenna Farm to Cathedral to Ventura State Beach
Article, Photos, and Track Log posted at link above
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Saturday 10 am at East Beach or Parma
Pulling the trigger at 8:45 to meet up with Dave Bader in Carpinteria and hope to get to East Beach or Parma about 10ish. It should be soarable earlier, but that's the soonest we can get there.
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8 am Saturday Update

The South Coast collected about an inch of rain between 9 PM and 11 PM on Friday night. After midnight the skies started to clear with plenty of stars when I checked at 4:30. By dawn it was mostly clear, but with plenty of lingering moisture. A bit windy at La Cumbre Peak from the west and 100% humidity. Montecito was reporting lighter drainage wind from the NW.

The lapse rate is strong, coupled with high humidity, expect early overdevelopment and low cloudbase. The wind should back off some and clock around to the NW later today. The down-sloping flow may assist in helping to break up the clouds.

The mountains may be ok down low below cloudbase. Higher up the wind is more of an issue. The mountains don't block wind from the west as well as a north. Even though it will likely be overdeveloped, the lapse rate may be good enough to feed from the sunny edge.

Expect local development with the potential for towering clouds that could produce showers and associated gusty outflow.

Bates might work. The direction looks promising with morning flow in the channel that has a lingering vector component from the south. The velocity may be a bit weak, but if a shower comes through on the right line the outflow ahead of it may be what we need to boost up and make a run down the coast toward Ventura.

Sunday is dryer and warmer at all altitudes. The lapse rate still looks good. The wind continues, but more from the north, which may be a good for local mountain flying from a blockage perspective.

I don't think we will be flying across Casitas Pass on Saturday due to the low cloudbase and the west wind higher up would be an issue. You might be able to launch from one of the lower takeoffs in the mountains and get high enough along the Castle Points to reach out toward Bates and possibly come in high enough to jump over to La Conchita. If the mountains are too problematic, then Bates might be an option if there is enough wind at the beach.
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Friday Night look at the weekend.

A fast moving cold front is sweeping through, bringing our first rain storm of the season. We had an impressive downpour along the south coast between 9 and 10 PM on Friday night, collecting about an inch? which was more than was forecasted a day or so ago.

Friday's wind was strong from the south at La Cumbre Peak. Bates was likely soarable both Thursday and Friday. Stronger on Thursday. Likely not strong enough to jump the gap to La Conchita on Friday. Saturday is a transition day. The rain should let up overnight, but freezing level is about 6K Friday night and Saturday morning, rising some through the day Saturday, so it won't take much heating to support rising air which should result in a low cloudbase due to the abundance of moisture. We don't need full sun, some filtered heating may be enough if the west wind isn't too much. The south wind should die down some and swing around clockwise from a south flow on Friday to west on Saturday morning to NW late Saturday afternoon and evening and finally N to NE on Sunday. The mountains may not block a west wind very good, but if there is adequate heating, the thermals may anchor for awhile.

Bates might work on Saturday. The forecast is calling for west wind in the afternoon. It was west last Saturday also, but the lapse rate this Saturday should be stronger, so the lift might pull the wind in some and give it a component from the south if the draw is strong enough.

The lapse rate still looks good on Sunday, but the wind along the ridge has a bit more velocity compared to Saturday and the direction is North to NE. Sunday should be much dryer.

My preference would be to give the mountains a look on Saturday, but if there is too much wind by the time cloudbase lifts, then Bates might be an option. John Scott is jealous of the SB pilots because we can simply wake up on Saturday and look out the window. John would need to drive up from West LA, so he needs to assess what is going on earlier and the winds aloft forecast won't come out until 7 am on Saturday, (but 6 am on Sunday as we fall back off daylight savings time).

The day is looking a little iffy due to a number of factors, but it should be colorful and might offer a window or 2, perhaps not for big number flights, but one worthy of kodachrome.