Weak Cold Front Sat 10/25

[sd]

Link to SD's log for Saturday
Flight Article: http://paraglide.net/log/14/10-25/1_skyport_to_painted_cave_to_chs.htm
Summary: http://paraglide.net/log/14/10-25/2_summary.htm
Photo Set: http://paraglide.net/log/14/10-25/photo
and Google Earth KMZ Track (need Google Earth to view)
http://paraglide.net/log/14/10-25/2014_10-25_sd_track.kmz
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Sunday Morning 8:30 Update:

The Sunday lapse rate in Santa Barbara looks good up to about 5K, and even stronger in Ojai, but the wind is draining vigorously from the NE with gust over 30 at La Cumbre Peak, and Montecito is reporting typical off-the-chart post frontal drainage numbers with gust approaching 50. The wind on the coast is mostly calm to light offshore early, but the outer channel wind is gusting over 30. The actual winds aloft aren't excessive, with the forecast calling for 10 to 15, but the morning drainage venturi strength is ominous.

I suspect the Santa Barbara mountains may not be a good call for paragliders today. The Ojai Mountains should block better up to about 5K. It will likely be blowing OTB at Chiefs, but you might be able to get some airtime by hiking to Twin Peaks from Thatcher and clearing a launch. I'm fairly certain no one has that much enthusiasm, so I suspect the mountains may be a no-go today.

Bates remains a possibility. The wind is north to NE up high, and strong NW outside the channel, but with a good lapse rate below ridge line the thermals may pull in the wind with a decent direction for a short window.

Saturday was good between 11:30 and 1:30. Better than expected. Flight Report, Weather Archive, Perceptions, and other stuff pending.
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Saturday Meet Time: 11:30 at East Beach
Considering meeting Ron Faoro at East Beach about 11:30 (Saturday) for the Skyport with the intention of flying back to Carpinteria and taking the bus back to East Beach. Call if you want to carpool to launch. My contact info is at http://truax.org or you can call Ron on his cell
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Saturday mid-morning update:

We are mostly south of the frontal activity, but Santa Barbara is getting a tailing influence. The stiff south venturi wind over the ridge this morning is backing down and should clock around from the west this afternoon, so there may be a window. Today's lapse rate looks unimpressive, but better on Sunday. All the forecast are calling for significant high clouds later today, but I'm a little skeptical that they will be thick enough to shut down all the heating. The forecasted morning low clouds and fog appear to be further south.

I'm a little skeptical about the wind pulling in at Bates. Mid-Channel is less than 10 knots mid-morning.

I'm not going to hike to launch, but if anyone is looking to head up and give it a look, I'm game. Sunday may be better with a stronger lapse rate. There is some north wind forecast for Sunday, but it may block at the lower altitudes along the coastal front range.
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Friday Night Update:

The forecast models and my perception have evolved since Thursday's midday post. The front is still scheduled to sweep through on Saturday, but the lapse rate on Saturday appears a bit weaker than earlier expectations, partially because the approaching high clouds will likely be a factor by reducing the surface heating. The day may still offer an early afternoon window if enough sun gets through. The flow is currently prefrontal from the south with venturi compression over the ridge, but the direction should swing around with wind from the west in the afternoon.

Thursday's forecast models were conflicted between the NAM and GFS with the Nam calling for a weaker lapse rate on Sunday compared to Saturday, but the GFS was more bullish about Sunday. The models now appear to be more closely aligned with both calling for a good lapse rate on Sunday below 4 or 5K for the Nam. The GFS is still a bit more bullish for Sunday, predicting a strong lapse rate up to about 6K, but also more wind. The wind clocks around to come from the north on Sunday, but the lower level velocity is less than 10 on the Nam forecast and in the low teens on the GFS, so it may block. If it does block, Sunday might be the better day, but still limited in potential due to an inversion above 4 or 5K and increasing North wind at the higher altitudes. The current forecast is calling for less wind on Sunday compared to Thursday's predictions, both at altitude and in the Channel. By Sunday, the high clouds should have blown by.
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Thursday midday look at Saturday for those not going to Plasket Creek this weekend:

Our current weak offshore event will be pushed out but a weak and dryish cold front that is forecast to sweep through on Saturday. The Nam Skew-T soundings for Saturday afternoon look better than Sunday. Saturday may be problematic due to early morning pre-frontal stratus, so you likely can’t start early? The wind might be an issue. The wind aloft looks less in the afternoon on the Nam soundings for Saturday, but the local draw in the soaring zones will likely increase through the afternoon.

Saturday’s lapse rate looks to be improving as the day gets older, but by Sunday, the lapse rate appears to flatten out and the wind clocks around from the west through north, finally coming from the NNE with a bit more gusto at ridgeline compared to Saturday. I suspect you can launch from the Santa Barbara Mountains around midday Saturday and fly to Bates or possibly through Casitas Pass, but with a late start we wouldn’t be able to go too far. They are forecasting some building wind in the Channel on Saturday, not too strong midday, but increasing overnight and into Sunday. Bates may work on Saturday if and when the wind pulls in, but Bates can be fickle. Sunday’s channel wind looks like it could be a little nasty with the current forecast calling for gust to 30.

In summary, I’d currently recommend the Skyport on Saturday, which won’t likely be very good early, but has the potential on paper to get better lapse rate wise in the afternoon as the front passes, but also breezy from the west, so you want be in the window after cloudbase lifts but before the building wind starts to gnaw at the thermals.

Unlike lingering Santa Anna Events, sweeping cold fonts are timing sensitive so a few hours one way or the other can make a huge difference in the day's potential.

[timobarker]

What a surprise!

Not being able to pick my days by the weather is always a bit problematic. Saturday was my day rain or shine. After reading SDs forecast I was thinking it could be a fun day, but didn't look near as good as it was in reality. I met up with SA, Howe, Cracka, Neil, and Heckman. Cracka launched around 11:20, with a bit of flair! He took off from the beautiful rock we like to watch from. After that spectacle, he gave us another as he sunk low into the canyon. He saved himself with a slow climb out. Then 20 minutes later he gave us the cue that it was on by buzzing us. SA and passenger launched and soared after him. I chased cracka down to Alternator and out to West Bowl. It was bouyant everywhere. I left the top of RR with about 50 - 100 AGL and made it to the road just under EJ bowl. I made one turn there for no success and continued toward La Cumbre. It was sweet to ridge soar up the east side of La cumbre. I haven't done that much as it's usually better on the south side. I cracked 4200 feet and went to alternator. I felt the East all the way to alternator. Then transitioned out to WestBowl. At west bowl I felt the wind change to the west. So, I turned with it and bobbed my way back east. The stronger climbs were consistently on the east faces all the way down the range. I picked up Neil at Thermal Factory and he then led the way East. I got stuck at Montecito for an excruciating long time. I searched every side of that thing for a good thermal. I finally found it way out front on the main spine. I hit 4200 there and cruised the rest of the way to powerline ridge with little difficulty. In fact, I didn't max out on a climb until the last bump before the powerlines. There, I got 4900! I've never been that high at the Powerlines. I was sure, that with the tailwind, the pass and Ojai were easily makable. Unfortunately, I was short on time for the day. Neil and I had also noticed the wind filling in on the ocean. So, we turned around and headed to Castle Ridge. Once we made it there, we turned South to Padero. That's where the real adventure began!
As we committed to an LZ we started to notice that the wind was more than just the regular westerly afternoon gusts. This was a full throttle experience. The white caps were huge. Strangely, I didn't feel the effects of the wind until we were about 200 AGL. I still had 4 or 5 mph into the wind without bar until about 100 AGL. After that I was on full bar and crabbing into the wind with maybe 1 or 2 mph. I stayed over the ocean until I was 10 feet agl. Then I took off speed bar and crabbed/flew backward into the beach, yarding my A's for a full frontal when I was 3 feet above the ground. I quickly turned around and grabbed full break with my Cs. That did the trick. What a gnarly experience. I've never landed in such high winds before.

It was a great day. When thinking about the whole experience, I think committing to Ojai might have been the safer landing option!