Mid Sept Heat Wave / 111

Link to Sundowner's Article for Sunday 9/14 plus some other flights during the period
http://paraglide.net/log/14/09-14/1_nuthouse_past_garlock_111_mi.htm
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Saturday Early Afternoon update:
Heading to Pine and the Nuthouse on Sunday.
So after excessive analysis, my perception is that I miss the "good old days" before the information age when we went flying on the weekend (both days), not because the weather was aligned, but because it was the weekend. It was hard to pass up Saturday, but I haven't flown the mountains in 4 months and can only budget one day (married with kids).
For Sunday, Sylmar looks like a sure thing without obstacles for the first 50 miles or so. Get high and point east with the intention of going OTB somewhere around Cucamonga. Problem is that after Interstate 15, it appears to be SSE down low, however, it continues to be SSW above 6 or 7K. Looks like Kagel is good for a hundred miler, but the distance potential may be better launching further west and taking a route that is more north where the flow is consistent from the SW at all altitudes.
Pine is a bit problematic for paragliders because there is a slug of south wind above 10K crossing I5, which makes it difficult for a slow glider to reach the Antelope Valley. Once established in the Antelope, the sailing looks good. Likely taking a line north of Edwards, perhaps up toward Garlock, but maybe a bit further south heading east along Hwy 58.
I think the PGs can get to Lockwood ok, but may have trouble crabbing against the south wind from Frazier to reach the Antelope Valley, so... I'll try to avoid crabbing against the south wind by putting on my masochist cap and hiking up to the Nuthouse Launch with the intention of going OTB from the Topa Topa range east of Hines Peak for the mountains east of Mutau Flats.
HGs are heading to Pine. I'm planning to leave Carpinteria about 7:20 (after I log the morning weather that comes out at 7). Ill meet Chris Paul in Ventura at 7:45 at the end of Ash Street (in the parking lot by the foot bridge over the freeway). I want to be on the trail by 8:15 to avoid the heat. Ojai temps were over 80 degrees by 10 am and over a hundred by early afternoon today (Saturday). I won't be able to make it to launch if I don't start hiking early. Expect to launch around 11ish. Call if you want to carpool from Carpinteria, or meet us in Ventura or Ojai. Brendan is game. Marty is at the Training Hill. Dr Andy and Travis? The Spin Doctor (Ron Faoro) is finishing up a 500 mile bike ride in Oregon and Tom Pipkin is on his way to San Diego for a fishing trip. Anyone up for a tandem over dinosaur country?
The XC PGs outnumbered the HGs 7 to 1 from Marshall on Friday, but the HGs will outnumber the PGs by a bunch on Sunday.
Logistically, a half a dozen HGs or more are heading to Pine. I think they will have Edward for crew. Max, TQ, South Side (John Scott), John (from SLO?) and Jonathan Dietch (from Long Beach). Hammer and John Greynald are maybes. I think they may also have a few more pilots that aren't planning to go XC. Diablo will likely be in the mix as well. Edward was crewing for Max's truck today (Saturday), so we should get some reports.
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Saturday morning update:
Looks like a promising day, but I'm going to let Saturday do it's thing without me and save my ticket for Sunday which looks better from a number of perspectives.
Still sitting on the fence about where to go, which partially depends on logistics. My preference would be Chiefs, but the ranger station was booked up on permits so the earliest reservation I could get was for 2 weekends from now. FlyAboveAll doesn't have a Nordhoff road permit for this weekend either, so unless someone is willing to take a peak in the mailbox and notice the gate combo, I don't know that we will be driving to Chiefs
Ojai would be my preference over Pine due to south wind in the forecast, which is typically amplified at Pine's South Side Launch. I think we could connect into the desert from Ojai on Sunday. As John Scott noted in his posts on Wednesday and Thursday, this weekend is serving up big altitude on the front range. Based on the Nam soundings, we might expect 11 or 12K in Ojai, and a little higher over Lockwood Valley. The flow aloft seems to be from the SSW on Sunday with some east off to the east. Friday's observations, recorded SW on the front range, but ENE out in the desert. Pilots launched from Crestline around noonish on Friday, but had to hang on until 12:30. They got high and went OTB eastbound. Alex Gagarin (PG) landed near Fairmont (mid Antelope Valley, 73 miles). Alex's max altitude was around 13K.
Sunday and Monday are calling for more cloud development. As John noted on Thursday, the wind looks less east on Sunday, so I need to retract my Tuesday assessment that we would be able to easily fly back to SB. That perception was based on the upper level flow being from the NE, but now it looks like Sunday's flow will be from the SSW, with some east further east.
There seems to be some consensus that Sylmar westbound may be a good option for Sunday, but we'll re-evaluate later today. I'm also considering hiking up to the Nuthouse, but wherever I go, we need crew, so I'll have to go with the flow.
______________________________________________
Tuesday night assessment for the coming weekend
A mid September high pressure heat wave is forecast for the extended weekend from Friday (9/12) through Tuesday (9/16). Saturday's lapse rate looks impressive up to about 12K (Tuesday's NAM isn't showing Sunday yet). Multiple sites should work including Ojai and Pine, with flights back to SB possible. Due to the light flow from the ENE, some pilots (HGs?) are talking about going to Marshall and trying to fly back to SB from there. Likely a bit too far for a PG, but we'll take another look later in the week. Peak heat is currently forecast to be Sunday, but it should work ok for a couple of days on either side.
http://paraglide.net/log/14/09-14/1_nuthouse_past_garlock_111_mi.htm
______________________________
Saturday Early Afternoon update:
Heading to Pine and the Nuthouse on Sunday.
So after excessive analysis, my perception is that I miss the "good old days" before the information age when we went flying on the weekend (both days), not because the weather was aligned, but because it was the weekend. It was hard to pass up Saturday, but I haven't flown the mountains in 4 months and can only budget one day (married with kids).
For Sunday, Sylmar looks like a sure thing without obstacles for the first 50 miles or so. Get high and point east with the intention of going OTB somewhere around Cucamonga. Problem is that after Interstate 15, it appears to be SSE down low, however, it continues to be SSW above 6 or 7K. Looks like Kagel is good for a hundred miler, but the distance potential may be better launching further west and taking a route that is more north where the flow is consistent from the SW at all altitudes.
Pine is a bit problematic for paragliders because there is a slug of south wind above 10K crossing I5, which makes it difficult for a slow glider to reach the Antelope Valley. Once established in the Antelope, the sailing looks good. Likely taking a line north of Edwards, perhaps up toward Garlock, but maybe a bit further south heading east along Hwy 58.
I think the PGs can get to Lockwood ok, but may have trouble crabbing against the south wind from Frazier to reach the Antelope Valley, so... I'll try to avoid crabbing against the south wind by putting on my masochist cap and hiking up to the Nuthouse Launch with the intention of going OTB from the Topa Topa range east of Hines Peak for the mountains east of Mutau Flats.
HGs are heading to Pine. I'm planning to leave Carpinteria about 7:20 (after I log the morning weather that comes out at 7). Ill meet Chris Paul in Ventura at 7:45 at the end of Ash Street (in the parking lot by the foot bridge over the freeway). I want to be on the trail by 8:15 to avoid the heat. Ojai temps were over 80 degrees by 10 am and over a hundred by early afternoon today (Saturday). I won't be able to make it to launch if I don't start hiking early. Expect to launch around 11ish. Call if you want to carpool from Carpinteria, or meet us in Ventura or Ojai. Brendan is game. Marty is at the Training Hill. Dr Andy and Travis? The Spin Doctor (Ron Faoro) is finishing up a 500 mile bike ride in Oregon and Tom Pipkin is on his way to San Diego for a fishing trip. Anyone up for a tandem over dinosaur country?
The XC PGs outnumbered the HGs 7 to 1 from Marshall on Friday, but the HGs will outnumber the PGs by a bunch on Sunday.
Logistically, a half a dozen HGs or more are heading to Pine. I think they will have Edward for crew. Max, TQ, South Side (John Scott), John (from SLO?) and Jonathan Dietch (from Long Beach). Hammer and John Greynald are maybes. I think they may also have a few more pilots that aren't planning to go XC. Diablo will likely be in the mix as well. Edward was crewing for Max's truck today (Saturday), so we should get some reports.
________________________
Saturday morning update:
Looks like a promising day, but I'm going to let Saturday do it's thing without me and save my ticket for Sunday which looks better from a number of perspectives.
Still sitting on the fence about where to go, which partially depends on logistics. My preference would be Chiefs, but the ranger station was booked up on permits so the earliest reservation I could get was for 2 weekends from now. FlyAboveAll doesn't have a Nordhoff road permit for this weekend either, so unless someone is willing to take a peak in the mailbox and notice the gate combo, I don't know that we will be driving to Chiefs
Ojai would be my preference over Pine due to south wind in the forecast, which is typically amplified at Pine's South Side Launch. I think we could connect into the desert from Ojai on Sunday. As John Scott noted in his posts on Wednesday and Thursday, this weekend is serving up big altitude on the front range. Based on the Nam soundings, we might expect 11 or 12K in Ojai, and a little higher over Lockwood Valley. The flow aloft seems to be from the SSW on Sunday with some east off to the east. Friday's observations, recorded SW on the front range, but ENE out in the desert. Pilots launched from Crestline around noonish on Friday, but had to hang on until 12:30. They got high and went OTB eastbound. Alex Gagarin (PG) landed near Fairmont (mid Antelope Valley, 73 miles). Alex's max altitude was around 13K.
Sunday and Monday are calling for more cloud development. As John noted on Thursday, the wind looks less east on Sunday, so I need to retract my Tuesday assessment that we would be able to easily fly back to SB. That perception was based on the upper level flow being from the NE, but now it looks like Sunday's flow will be from the SSW, with some east further east.
There seems to be some consensus that Sylmar westbound may be a good option for Sunday, but we'll re-evaluate later today. I'm also considering hiking up to the Nuthouse, but wherever I go, we need crew, so I'll have to go with the flow.
______________________________________________
Tuesday night assessment for the coming weekend
A mid September high pressure heat wave is forecast for the extended weekend from Friday (9/12) through Tuesday (9/16). Saturday's lapse rate looks impressive up to about 12K (Tuesday's NAM isn't showing Sunday yet). Multiple sites should work including Ojai and Pine, with flights back to SB possible. Due to the light flow from the ENE, some pilots (HGs?) are talking about going to Marshall and trying to fly back to SB from there. Likely a bit too far for a PG, but we'll take another look later in the week. Peak heat is currently forecast to be Sunday, but it should work ok for a couple of days on either side.