http://paraglide.net/log/14/02-01/2_weather.htm
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Saturday Night Update:
Looks like I'll throw in the towel for Sunday. It was clear at sunset, but the satellite loop shows a thickening mass of high clouds just off Point Conception, so we should be under an overcast well before dawn. The 6K temperature is low, but the surface temperature will also be cold in the morning. The lapse rate looks much better by 1PM, but by that time, I expect we won't have much if any sun shining through.
Looks like the best opportunity for the mountains was Saturday afternoon.
- Sat 1 pm NAM
- Sat 4 pm NAM
- La Cumbre 12 Hr Velocity < Sat 3:30 pm
- observation_la_cumbre_peak_wind_velicity_12_hr_1530pst.png (1.63 KiB) Viewed 5045 times
- La Cumbre 12 Hr Direction < Sat 3:30 PM
- observation_la_cumbre_peak_wind_direction_12_hr_1530pst.png (1.29 KiB) Viewed 5045 times
- La Cumbre 2 Hr Direction < Sat 3:30 pm
- observation_la_cumbre_peak_wind_direction_2_hr_1530pst.png (542 Bytes) Viewed 5045 times
Pilots went up the hill earlier, but I didn't here of any reports of anyone actually launching in the mountains.
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Saturday Afternoon 3:30 Summary
Bates came in pretty good for about 45 minutes to an hour, then faded over the next hour. Pilots mingling on launch when I arrived a little before 1 said it had been blowing in at 17 knots with a good direction, but it was much lighter at 1 pm. It came and went a couple of times, getting weaker with each iteration. John Kloer launched and was getting a couple hundred over for awhile, but was down much lower by time Tess and I were ready for our tandem. John top landed, then Tess and I took off, getting about 50 feet over the lower cliff at best. Dave Bader joined us for awhile. After about 20 minutes we couldn't get above the ridge, so it was time to land.
Saw David Teal on launch while picking up my car about 2:30. He reported that a group of HGs went to the Eliminator, but didn't set up. There were some up cycles, a few good strong ones lasting as long as 10 minutes, but it was more down than up, so they punted about 1 PM an drove back down. The station reports indicate it did finally draw in steady from the south for a short while (an hour and a half?) at both La Cumbre Peak and Montecito around 2:30ish.
I'll likely try to fly early Sunday, trying to beat the increasing clouds.
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12:30 pm Updated, Saturday
Heading over to Bates. La Cumbre Peak is light. Montecito says it's still gusting to 26 from the north, but all the other stations are drawing in, so...
The broken CUs up high behind Carpinteria do seem to be a little wind tattered and drifting from the north.
The mid channel buoy is gusting to 15ish. Bates has light white caps, was drawing straight in for awhile around 11ith, but is starting to cross from the right as the velocity builds, but still a good direction.
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11:45 Update by Sam for sd
Bates is on. sd is at Viola Fields for softball. Drawing straight in 5-9 knots. Birds soaring. White caps.
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9:45 am Updated, Saturday
Looks like it is backing down pretty fast at La Cumbre Peak. Expect it to be launchable at the Skyport around 11ish. Not much wind on the water, single digits mid channel, so don't hold out much hope for Bates to Ventura, but Wilcox may work.
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Saturday Dawn Update
The day looks like it has good potential. There is some north wind this morning, driven by both the jet stream and subsidence last night, but it is forecast to back off this afternoon. The lapse rate is very good (strong) and with plenty of sun, expect high puddle temperature differentials to release strong thermals with plenty of punch to plow up through the cold air aloft. The decreasing north wind will likely delay launch times. You may be able to get off earlier by launching lower. The day should work late with max altitudes improving to 7 or 8K later this afternoon, especially down range to the east over the higher terrain. The lower level flow should shift to the west as the day progresses, with more of a north component at the higher altitudes.
Friday was more of a transition day and the mountains did not block enough. Bates tried to come on later in the morning, but then went calm before gusting through from the north. High clouds on Friday moderated the heating. Expect more sun today (Saturday) with decreasing wind aloft in the afternoon and increasing but manageable lower level wind from the west.
I can’t fly this morning, but may be able to assist with retrieve if you get stuck this afternoon. Call my cell. John Scott (Southside) is reportedly sponsoring a crew of southies. He has his daughter driving on her maiden outing.
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Friday morning update
As promised the forecast has evolved. I currently agree with Southside that Saturday looks like the best day, but the current NAM forecast runs don't show the laps rate being nearly as robust on Saturday as the earlier graphic run posted by John (below).
Friday's afternoon lapse rate looks ballistic, and the current forecast for wind on Friday is less than earlier forecast, so I suspect there is a good chance Friday may block in the mountains at the lower altitudes.
I suspect Bates was working on Thursday. I wasn't at the cliff, but it seemed to be about right from my house in the middle of town. Likely not enough to jump the gap to La Conchia, but good enough to get up and zoom around. I expect Bates to pull in today also, perhaps with a bit more gusto.
Sunday is still problematic to nail down. The timing has shifted. Saturday is now showing less north and more west. Sunday is currently forecasted to be more of a prefrontal day, offering a good lapse rate, but increasing clouds in the afternoon followed by light rain after sunset.
I can't fly Saturday due to kids sports activities, so perhaps I'll try to catch the window at Bates today or give it an early go on Sunday.
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Wednesday night look at the coming weekend.
Looks like cold air at 6K. Not very warm on the surface, but still a good lapse rate. The cold air aloft is due to a cold front bringing north wind that peaks on Thursday then tapers and clocks around from the west through the weekend.
Thursday will likely be a no fly day in the mountains due to overcast and too much wind (over 100 knots at 35K). Friday might offer a window, but there is a considerable amount of post frontal north wind, increasing with altitude, however, the lapse rate is pretty strong, so there may be a short block below ridge line as the day heats, but the vertical mixing will likely pull the north wind down in the afternoon. Both the lapse rate and wind fade on Saturday, but there is still some of both. Saturday starts out with a fair amount of left over north wind, but mostly at higher altitudes. The north backs off Saturday afternoon and clocks around from the west at ridge line and SW down lower. Saturday's lapse rate still looks pretty good. A little early to project out for Sunday, but it may be good also.
Bates may have a narrow window on Friday. The wind aloft Friday is due north, but the lapse rate is strong enough that it may suck in down low for awhile.
Saturday may be more robust than Sunday with stronger climbs, but Sunday may be the better XC day with less wind and more of a westerly flow early, even at the higher altitudes above ridge line. Saturday will have more of a north component up higher, so even though you may get higher on Saturday with stronger climbs, Sunday may yield better glides with less wind but more of a tail wind component. Of course if you are flying a hang glider, you can simply pull the bar in on Saturday. If I had to venture an early personal preference, I have trouble letting a good day go by hoping for better tomorrow, so I'd be inclined to fly Saturday, but Sunday will likely be more docile and better for the less experienced pilots.
Recommend flying from the Skyport early in the weekend because it is more sheltered from the north flow. The Skyport will likely be cycling in earlier than EJs on Saturday, but EJs may be back in action on Sunday.
This is only Wednesday evening, so expect the forecast to change by Saturday.
