Saturday, 1/25, Oat Mountain to East Divide ~ 30 Mi
Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:30 pmLink to Sundowner's Articles for Saturday
Oat Mountain / Fillmore to East Divide ~ 30 Miles
http://paraglide.net/log/14/01-25/1_oat_to_east_divide.htm
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Saturday Morning Pre-Dawn Update
Still on board for a 9:30 meet in Fillmore, 9 at Ash Street in Ventura, and 8:40 in Carpinteria.
The high clouds will be more of a problem on Saturday than earlier model runs predicted, resulting in lower surface temperature forecasts by up to 5 or 6 degrees compared to Friday's forecast for Saturday. I was tempted to scrub the day, but after looking at the most recent NAM sounding model runs it is still hard to pass up a look, but it could be a fishing expedition. The Forecast Discussion, GFS model, Zone Forecast, and Temperature Forecast are all showing considerable high clouds, but the NAM is still showing a very good lower level lapse rate in Fillmore and Ojai this morning. The satellite image is showing high clouds, but thinner than Friday.
The updated midday temperature spread from the surface to 6K is in the mid 20s for Ojai and lower 20s in Santa Barbara. Earlier forecast with more sun were pegging the Ojai spread at close to 30 degrees. Mid 20s is still ok, but lower 20s for Ojai is less than optimal.
The forecasted lapse rate is better in Ojai and Fillmore compared to Santa Barbara, but SB is likely good enough to work ok-ish. The big variable today (Saturday) is how much sun will filter through the high cloud overcast. A few degrees might make a difference between a stellar day or a fizzle. Friday saw more sun getting through earlier before mid-day lifting at altitude thickened the overcast.
The wind does seem to be laying down as forecast. Pre-dawn, Piru is only gusting a little over 10ish form the east. Wiley Ridge, one of the windiest spots SE of Fillmore is still gusting into the upper 20s, but it blows much harder at Wiley on a typical Santa Anna day. La Cumbre Peak is down in mid single digits. The east flow is forecast to drop off even more as the day progresses, and it will turn on-shore along the coast at the lower altitudes.
Sunday may have more sun. The lapse rate isn't as good, but that might be balanced out by more sun. The models aren't in total agreement about more sun on Sunday. Most of the models are calling for more, but the GFS is still calling for considerable high cloud formation on Sunday. Ojai will likely work ok on Sunday, but the flow is from the west so don't expect to fly westbound toward SB. Santa Barbara looks weakish on Sunday.
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Friday evening update:
9:30 meet at the Vons in Fillmore, expecting to be at launch about 10:15ish. 8:40 departure from Carpinteria, and 9 am at Ash Street in Ventura. The forecast is still on track to be a good day Saturday, so we will be trying to fly westbound toward Santa Barbara. Both Mark Pratt and Ron Gruell will meet us in Fillmore. We currently have 2 HG and 5 PG pilots confirmed. We will make room for whoever shows up. We don't have crew lined up. Edward may be available if you give him a call.
If you haven't flown Fillmore, it is a P2 site suitable for first high flight students. There is a Google Earth KML file posted at
http://scpa.info/sites/fillmore
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Friday pre-dawn update for Saturday.
I'm trending toward a flight from Fillmore westbound toward Santa Barbara. We got skunked on our last October attempt [http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_10-26/2_weather.htm] but this Saturday's weather looks like a much better lapse rate, especially down lower. The lapse rate peaks Friday night and tapers through the weekend. Looks like we will have to contend with some mid level clouds (but not as bad as Friday), so they are a variable that could be problematic.
Santa Barbara should be good if you are looking for easy (surface to 6K spread in the mid 20s). Ojai looks like a sure thing with a temperature spread in the upper 20s. You should be able to fly downwind westbound to Santa Barbara if you don't mind hiking to launch. Fillmore is not proven, but looks good on paper and Dr. Pratt has flown westbound to Nordhoff this time of year
[http://paraglide.net/log/amigo/mark_pratt/03_02-09_oat_to_ojai.htm]. I'll try to check in with Mark on Friday and ask for an invite.
Friday continues to look like a poor day despite the improving lapse rate. Too much wind, along with thick mid and high level clouds (compared with significantly less wind and mostly mid level clouds on Saturday).
The upper launch at Oat faces SE, so with a good early morning lapse rate, it should be soarable early. We need a good lower level lapse rate because if you glide across the river without getting up at launch, you come in pretty low (mid teens msl) on the other side. Fortunately, San Cayetano Ridge faces mostly south with a little east exposure in places, so it should collect the morning sun. I'm hopeful that we will be able to get over launch based on the current forecast.
Another advantage of Fillmore over the Nuthouse this Saturday is it's suitability to Hang Gliders as well as Paragliders.
______________________________________________
Thursday afternoon look at the coming weekend...
Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend, especially for flying west from the Nuthouse toward Santa Barbara. With manageable flow from the SE and an ok lower level lapse rate, you might even be able to make the initial connection across the river from Oat Mountain in Fillmore for a record flight to Santa Barbara.
Friday looks like a no fly day in the mountains, with high clouds and too much wind from the SE along the ridge line. Friday's lapse rate is ok-ish, but the wind will likely be too much for weak thermals under the thick high clouds. Saturday should have considerably more sun and significantly less wind, but still from the ESE. Even without factoring in the returning sun, Saturday's lapse rate looks better than Friday, but there may be some onshore flow down lower, so Santa Barbara could be more exposed to the marine air than Ojai. Santa Barbara will likely work ok Saturday, but Ojai should work better and it will likely be downwind westbound toward Santa Barbara.
Sunday should have even less wind but is forecast to cool down a bit with more on-shore flow. Sunday is also forecast to be a bit warmer at 6K, so the lapse rate won't likely be as good as Saturday. There may also be some high clouds on Sunday.
Not much wind down low on the water all weekend.
Oat Mountain / Fillmore to East Divide ~ 30 Miles
http://paraglide.net/log/14/01-25/1_oat_to_east_divide.htm
________________________________
Saturday Morning Pre-Dawn Update
Still on board for a 9:30 meet in Fillmore, 9 at Ash Street in Ventura, and 8:40 in Carpinteria.
The high clouds will be more of a problem on Saturday than earlier model runs predicted, resulting in lower surface temperature forecasts by up to 5 or 6 degrees compared to Friday's forecast for Saturday. I was tempted to scrub the day, but after looking at the most recent NAM sounding model runs it is still hard to pass up a look, but it could be a fishing expedition. The Forecast Discussion, GFS model, Zone Forecast, and Temperature Forecast are all showing considerable high clouds, but the NAM is still showing a very good lower level lapse rate in Fillmore and Ojai this morning. The satellite image is showing high clouds, but thinner than Friday.
The updated midday temperature spread from the surface to 6K is in the mid 20s for Ojai and lower 20s in Santa Barbara. Earlier forecast with more sun were pegging the Ojai spread at close to 30 degrees. Mid 20s is still ok, but lower 20s for Ojai is less than optimal.
The forecasted lapse rate is better in Ojai and Fillmore compared to Santa Barbara, but SB is likely good enough to work ok-ish. The big variable today (Saturday) is how much sun will filter through the high cloud overcast. A few degrees might make a difference between a stellar day or a fizzle. Friday saw more sun getting through earlier before mid-day lifting at altitude thickened the overcast.
The wind does seem to be laying down as forecast. Pre-dawn, Piru is only gusting a little over 10ish form the east. Wiley Ridge, one of the windiest spots SE of Fillmore is still gusting into the upper 20s, but it blows much harder at Wiley on a typical Santa Anna day. La Cumbre Peak is down in mid single digits. The east flow is forecast to drop off even more as the day progresses, and it will turn on-shore along the coast at the lower altitudes.
Sunday may have more sun. The lapse rate isn't as good, but that might be balanced out by more sun. The models aren't in total agreement about more sun on Sunday. Most of the models are calling for more, but the GFS is still calling for considerable high cloud formation on Sunday. Ojai will likely work ok on Sunday, but the flow is from the west so don't expect to fly westbound toward SB. Santa Barbara looks weakish on Sunday.
______________________
Friday evening update:
9:30 meet at the Vons in Fillmore, expecting to be at launch about 10:15ish. 8:40 departure from Carpinteria, and 9 am at Ash Street in Ventura. The forecast is still on track to be a good day Saturday, so we will be trying to fly westbound toward Santa Barbara. Both Mark Pratt and Ron Gruell will meet us in Fillmore. We currently have 2 HG and 5 PG pilots confirmed. We will make room for whoever shows up. We don't have crew lined up. Edward may be available if you give him a call.
If you haven't flown Fillmore, it is a P2 site suitable for first high flight students. There is a Google Earth KML file posted at
http://scpa.info/sites/fillmore
__________________________________
Friday pre-dawn update for Saturday.
I'm trending toward a flight from Fillmore westbound toward Santa Barbara. We got skunked on our last October attempt [http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_10-26/2_weather.htm] but this Saturday's weather looks like a much better lapse rate, especially down lower. The lapse rate peaks Friday night and tapers through the weekend. Looks like we will have to contend with some mid level clouds (but not as bad as Friday), so they are a variable that could be problematic.
Santa Barbara should be good if you are looking for easy (surface to 6K spread in the mid 20s). Ojai looks like a sure thing with a temperature spread in the upper 20s. You should be able to fly downwind westbound to Santa Barbara if you don't mind hiking to launch. Fillmore is not proven, but looks good on paper and Dr. Pratt has flown westbound to Nordhoff this time of year
[http://paraglide.net/log/amigo/mark_pratt/03_02-09_oat_to_ojai.htm]. I'll try to check in with Mark on Friday and ask for an invite.
Friday continues to look like a poor day despite the improving lapse rate. Too much wind, along with thick mid and high level clouds (compared with significantly less wind and mostly mid level clouds on Saturday).
The upper launch at Oat faces SE, so with a good early morning lapse rate, it should be soarable early. We need a good lower level lapse rate because if you glide across the river without getting up at launch, you come in pretty low (mid teens msl) on the other side. Fortunately, San Cayetano Ridge faces mostly south with a little east exposure in places, so it should collect the morning sun. I'm hopeful that we will be able to get over launch based on the current forecast.
Another advantage of Fillmore over the Nuthouse this Saturday is it's suitability to Hang Gliders as well as Paragliders.
______________________________________________
Thursday afternoon look at the coming weekend...
Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend, especially for flying west from the Nuthouse toward Santa Barbara. With manageable flow from the SE and an ok lower level lapse rate, you might even be able to make the initial connection across the river from Oat Mountain in Fillmore for a record flight to Santa Barbara.
Friday looks like a no fly day in the mountains, with high clouds and too much wind from the SE along the ridge line. Friday's lapse rate is ok-ish, but the wind will likely be too much for weak thermals under the thick high clouds. Saturday should have considerably more sun and significantly less wind, but still from the ESE. Even without factoring in the returning sun, Saturday's lapse rate looks better than Friday, but there may be some onshore flow down lower, so Santa Barbara could be more exposed to the marine air than Ojai. Santa Barbara will likely work ok Saturday, but Ojai should work better and it will likely be downwind westbound toward Santa Barbara.
Sunday should have even less wind but is forecast to cool down a bit with more on-shore flow. Sunday is also forecast to be a bit warmer at 6K, so the lapse rate won't likely be as good as Saturday. There may also be some high clouds on Sunday.
Not much wind down low on the water all weekend.