Sat 9/28, Mild Santa Anna

Link to SD's flight article for Saturday
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_09-28/1_skyport_to_painted_cave_to_fillmore.htm
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Saturday pre dawn perception:
The Santa Anna event seems to be mostly a no show with little flow from the east. Not seeing much offshore flow through the usual paths. Perhaps offshore flow will pick up after dawn, but I don't see anything in place to drive it. The Ojai Valley temperature forecast for Saturday is down a few degrees from the prior prediction Friday night, but the lapse rate below 6K should still be very good in Ojai by midday. The Ojai Valley floor didn't get quite as cold last night as the forecast prediction.
Without a tail wind on course from Ojai to SB, I can't get motivated to hike in the heat, so I'll opt to attend Sam's XC meet at UCSB around 9ish, and hopefully get to Parma around 11ish. Perhaps a half hour behind the optimal meet time.
At 5 am, La Cumbre Peak was already flowing from the SSE rather than OTB from the NE as expected. Montecito had a few gust above 10 from the NNE, but it too is showing light flow from the S.
It may be iffy getting past Carpinteria, but as noted in last night's post, if we can get to Noon Peak, we should be able to reach Fillmore or Piru. The lack of pre-dawn flow from the NE is a bit disappointing. A NE flow can scour out the marine air and aid convergence over La Cumbre Peak.
At 6 am, the 1500 foot Montecito station was reporting 70 degrees, about 6 degrees warmer than La Cumbre Peak which was reporting 64 degrees. The 6K temperature is forecasted to be in the mid to upper 50s and climbing.
Not much onshore flow. Little wind forecast for the Channel. If the wind stays low as forecast, the weak thermals may be able to stay organized and have a reasonable trajectory.
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Friday night look at Saturday: Mild Santa Anna
My preference would be to launch Chiefs as early as possible, but we haven't been able to drum up a driver. I'm leaning toward hiking the nuthouse, starting up around 9ish, but will check the weather in the morning before committing.
The forecast seems to be calling for light flow from the east early, then light from the west in the afternoon at the lower altitudes. Above 6K, the east may persist, but we won't likely spend much time above 6K. There is an inversion around 6K, but the forecasted temperature spread between the Ojai Valley floor and 6K is about 30 degrees, so the thermals should protrude up above the inversion some, maybe to about 7K.
Ojai may offer the best potential for an out and return, heading west early and then turning to run east in the afternoon. Santa Barbara may offer simpler logistics. My son has a XC meet at UCSB at 9am, so I could watch his run and still be on time for the afternoon eastbound leg from SB.
As of Friday night, Ron Faoro and I are considering the Nuthouse. If you know of anyone who might be willing to crew, I think we can launch earlier from Chiefs. With the valley temperatures falling in to the mid 40s, we will need to let it heat awhile to turn over the inversion. I don't expect it to be soarable before 11ish, and the lift will likely be better after noon if the wind doesn't come up and gnaw at the thermals.
If you can get to Noon Peak from SB you should be able to reach Fillmore. Piru blew downriver all day on Friday, but Santa Paula was onshore. Not sure how it will balance out on Saturday, but I suspect there will be an on-shore / off-shore river convergence somewhere in the Santa Clara.
If you want to carpool to Ojai, we should leave vehicles at Ash Street in Ventura so we can take the bus back from Fillmore.
PS: Just got back from the Carpinteria Football game. The Warriors are undefeated at 5 and 0. My daughter Tess went to the Dodger game tonight to watch the boys in blue beat up on the Rockies.
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_09-28/1_skyport_to_painted_cave_to_fillmore.htm
_________________________
Saturday pre dawn perception:
The Santa Anna event seems to be mostly a no show with little flow from the east. Not seeing much offshore flow through the usual paths. Perhaps offshore flow will pick up after dawn, but I don't see anything in place to drive it. The Ojai Valley temperature forecast for Saturday is down a few degrees from the prior prediction Friday night, but the lapse rate below 6K should still be very good in Ojai by midday. The Ojai Valley floor didn't get quite as cold last night as the forecast prediction.
Without a tail wind on course from Ojai to SB, I can't get motivated to hike in the heat, so I'll opt to attend Sam's XC meet at UCSB around 9ish, and hopefully get to Parma around 11ish. Perhaps a half hour behind the optimal meet time.
At 5 am, La Cumbre Peak was already flowing from the SSE rather than OTB from the NE as expected. Montecito had a few gust above 10 from the NNE, but it too is showing light flow from the S.
It may be iffy getting past Carpinteria, but as noted in last night's post, if we can get to Noon Peak, we should be able to reach Fillmore or Piru. The lack of pre-dawn flow from the NE is a bit disappointing. A NE flow can scour out the marine air and aid convergence over La Cumbre Peak.
At 6 am, the 1500 foot Montecito station was reporting 70 degrees, about 6 degrees warmer than La Cumbre Peak which was reporting 64 degrees. The 6K temperature is forecasted to be in the mid to upper 50s and climbing.
Not much onshore flow. Little wind forecast for the Channel. If the wind stays low as forecast, the weak thermals may be able to stay organized and have a reasonable trajectory.
_______________________________________
Friday night look at Saturday: Mild Santa Anna
My preference would be to launch Chiefs as early as possible, but we haven't been able to drum up a driver. I'm leaning toward hiking the nuthouse, starting up around 9ish, but will check the weather in the morning before committing.
The forecast seems to be calling for light flow from the east early, then light from the west in the afternoon at the lower altitudes. Above 6K, the east may persist, but we won't likely spend much time above 6K. There is an inversion around 6K, but the forecasted temperature spread between the Ojai Valley floor and 6K is about 30 degrees, so the thermals should protrude up above the inversion some, maybe to about 7K.
Ojai may offer the best potential for an out and return, heading west early and then turning to run east in the afternoon. Santa Barbara may offer simpler logistics. My son has a XC meet at UCSB at 9am, so I could watch his run and still be on time for the afternoon eastbound leg from SB.
As of Friday night, Ron Faoro and I are considering the Nuthouse. If you know of anyone who might be willing to crew, I think we can launch earlier from Chiefs. With the valley temperatures falling in to the mid 40s, we will need to let it heat awhile to turn over the inversion. I don't expect it to be soarable before 11ish, and the lift will likely be better after noon if the wind doesn't come up and gnaw at the thermals.
If you can get to Noon Peak from SB you should be able to reach Fillmore. Piru blew downriver all day on Friday, but Santa Paula was onshore. Not sure how it will balance out on Saturday, but I suspect there will be an on-shore / off-shore river convergence somewhere in the Santa Clara.
If you want to carpool to Ojai, we should leave vehicles at Ash Street in Ventura so we can take the bus back from Fillmore.
PS: Just got back from the Carpinteria Football game. The Warriors are undefeated at 5 and 0. My daughter Tess went to the Dodger game tonight to watch the boys in blue beat up on the Rockies.