Sunday, 2/10 / Skyport to Lake Casitas

Link to SD’s flight on Sunday
Skyport to Chismahoo Trail to Lake Casitas
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_02-10/1_skyport_to_lake_casitas.htm
___________________
Sunday morning update:
Little change from previous forecast. Perhaps a bit more wind from the north up higher, but La Cumbre Peak was calm at dawn and Montecito was only 3-8 from the east. Mostly calm on the surface everywhere at dawn. Frost in Ojai, ice in Rose Valley. Well above freezing on the coast, but I did have a thin layer of frost on my car roof at dawn. As expected, a little more early morning inversion than Saturday, but less than the norm for Feb. Still on track for Parma at 9, but John Scott’s truck is limited on seating. The Spin Doctor and Bob Hurlbett are meeting at Parma at 9. Expect to launch around 10ish.
________________________
Saturday Sundown Update for Sunday:
Meeting Diablo and Southside at Bailard about 8:30. Should roll through Parma by 9. The weather seems to be unfolding as forecast.
________________________
Saturday morning look at Sunday
The forecast for Sunday looks promising. Diablo is crewing for South Side and SD. Meet time to be determined after looking at the weather Sunday morning. With the 6K temperature in the lower single digits, we can likely go early if the sunrise inversion isn’t too strong. There wasn’t much inversion this morning, but with less wind tonight, the boundary layer might be colder Sunday morning.
We are under a cold air mass behind Friday’s frontal passage. The forecast for Saturday is calling for some post frontal wind with small craft advisories through tonight. Saturday’s wind may back down earlier than expected. It is only blowing about 5 mph from the north at La Cumbre Peak at 9am. The mid channel has some wind, but it is light north of Point Conception. The Saturday balloon is showing about 20 knots, which coincides with the early winds aloft forecast, but the balloon went up before sunrise.
The wind forecast for Sunday is light and variable before building into a Santa Anna offshore flow on Monday into mid week.
The cold air mass and sunshine should equate to a good lapse rate.
Skyport to Chismahoo Trail to Lake Casitas
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_02-10/1_skyport_to_lake_casitas.htm
___________________
Sunday morning update:
Little change from previous forecast. Perhaps a bit more wind from the north up higher, but La Cumbre Peak was calm at dawn and Montecito was only 3-8 from the east. Mostly calm on the surface everywhere at dawn. Frost in Ojai, ice in Rose Valley. Well above freezing on the coast, but I did have a thin layer of frost on my car roof at dawn. As expected, a little more early morning inversion than Saturday, but less than the norm for Feb. Still on track for Parma at 9, but John Scott’s truck is limited on seating. The Spin Doctor and Bob Hurlbett are meeting at Parma at 9. Expect to launch around 10ish.
________________________
Saturday Sundown Update for Sunday:
Meeting Diablo and Southside at Bailard about 8:30. Should roll through Parma by 9. The weather seems to be unfolding as forecast.
________________________
Saturday morning look at Sunday
The forecast for Sunday looks promising. Diablo is crewing for South Side and SD. Meet time to be determined after looking at the weather Sunday morning. With the 6K temperature in the lower single digits, we can likely go early if the sunrise inversion isn’t too strong. There wasn’t much inversion this morning, but with less wind tonight, the boundary layer might be colder Sunday morning.
We are under a cold air mass behind Friday’s frontal passage. The forecast for Saturday is calling for some post frontal wind with small craft advisories through tonight. Saturday’s wind may back down earlier than expected. It is only blowing about 5 mph from the north at La Cumbre Peak at 9am. The mid channel has some wind, but it is light north of Point Conception. The Saturday balloon is showing about 20 knots, which coincides with the early winds aloft forecast, but the balloon went up before sunrise.
The wind forecast for Sunday is light and variable before building into a Santa Anna offshore flow on Monday into mid week.
The cold air mass and sunshine should equate to a good lapse rate.