Sunday 12/30
Posted: Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:12 am9 AM Update:
Out the door about 9:15 with family in tow. Expect to roll through Parma between 9:45 and 10 am. La Cumbre Peak appears to be backing down, but Montecito is still blowing down through Ramero Saddle. The wind forecast for 6K is up a bit, but the ocean is still calm. No VGB Balloon this morning, but the snow above 4K indicates it is cold at altitude.
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Sunday, Pre-Dawn Review
Oh My. With all these seasonal goodies under the sky, how to choose your consumption and avoid getting fat. This week’s weather offers a lot of color and variety with a common thread. Cold air and associated vertical instability.
If you don’t like the weather, hang on a bit and it will change. Unlike a singular spring cold front that sweeps through and then gradually warms over several days with the wind clocking around from a post frontal NW to a Santa Anna drain from the east, we are currently the recipients of rapid fire artic cold air pulses plowing through. Like a baseball pitcher's delivery, each one comes across our plate with some variation. We can swing away, or if you’re down to your last strike, you may want to exercise some batter discipline.
Personally, I’m a bit of a glutton and jonesing for the sugar today. Monday may be less volatile without the towering development and perhaps a better choice for the newer pilots. Today (Sunday) may blow a bit in the afternoon. There is some pre-dawn north wind at the Peak, and even more squeezing through the venturi gaps like Montecito, but with such a strong lapse rate, I suspect it will block for a window before the vertical mixing pulls the building post frontal jet stream down. Bates may offer an opportunity this afternoon. The wind should sweep through from the west, so if you time it right, you might be able to stay in front for awhile.
The advantage today goes to the hang gliders over paragliders due to their speed as the big strong thermals will negate the paraglider’s slow speed advantage. The HGs will also be able to pull upwind and reach across wider sink holes.
The afternoon wind forecast looks robust, but not too nasty. The highest wind forecasted is less than 100 knots between 24 and 30K, high teens at 6K, and mid 20s at 9K. The Mid Channel Buoy is gusting under 5, but should build. We need to get off in the block and consider leaving the mountains before the sweep. I suspect the massive thermals will anchor, but the sink holes on glide will be strong. The temperature spread (lapse rate) from the surface to 6K is in the low 30s. Dress warm, because the temperature is cold everywhere and well below freezing above cloudbase. There should be some vertical development, so if you choose to be naughty and ride high, be prepared for ice accumulation.
I suspect it will be soarable at 9, launchable by 10 and windy around 1. I’ll update after the balloon and winds aloft forecast are posted. La Cumbre Peak was gusting into the mid teens from the NE bofore sunrise, so if it starts backing down below 10ish, it’s time to load and go. Consider launching lower or north side if your are early.
Carry survival gear and consider that if you land out it will be a long freezing cold night if you can't navigate out of the brush in the dark.
PS: my car has a hiccup, so if you are passing through Carpinteria this morning, please give me a call or leave a note.
Out the door about 9:15 with family in tow. Expect to roll through Parma between 9:45 and 10 am. La Cumbre Peak appears to be backing down, but Montecito is still blowing down through Ramero Saddle. The wind forecast for 6K is up a bit, but the ocean is still calm. No VGB Balloon this morning, but the snow above 4K indicates it is cold at altitude.
_______________
Sunday, Pre-Dawn Review
Oh My. With all these seasonal goodies under the sky, how to choose your consumption and avoid getting fat. This week’s weather offers a lot of color and variety with a common thread. Cold air and associated vertical instability.
If you don’t like the weather, hang on a bit and it will change. Unlike a singular spring cold front that sweeps through and then gradually warms over several days with the wind clocking around from a post frontal NW to a Santa Anna drain from the east, we are currently the recipients of rapid fire artic cold air pulses plowing through. Like a baseball pitcher's delivery, each one comes across our plate with some variation. We can swing away, or if you’re down to your last strike, you may want to exercise some batter discipline.
Personally, I’m a bit of a glutton and jonesing for the sugar today. Monday may be less volatile without the towering development and perhaps a better choice for the newer pilots. Today (Sunday) may blow a bit in the afternoon. There is some pre-dawn north wind at the Peak, and even more squeezing through the venturi gaps like Montecito, but with such a strong lapse rate, I suspect it will block for a window before the vertical mixing pulls the building post frontal jet stream down. Bates may offer an opportunity this afternoon. The wind should sweep through from the west, so if you time it right, you might be able to stay in front for awhile.
The advantage today goes to the hang gliders over paragliders due to their speed as the big strong thermals will negate the paraglider’s slow speed advantage. The HGs will also be able to pull upwind and reach across wider sink holes.
The afternoon wind forecast looks robust, but not too nasty. The highest wind forecasted is less than 100 knots between 24 and 30K, high teens at 6K, and mid 20s at 9K. The Mid Channel Buoy is gusting under 5, but should build. We need to get off in the block and consider leaving the mountains before the sweep. I suspect the massive thermals will anchor, but the sink holes on glide will be strong. The temperature spread (lapse rate) from the surface to 6K is in the low 30s. Dress warm, because the temperature is cold everywhere and well below freezing above cloudbase. There should be some vertical development, so if you choose to be naughty and ride high, be prepared for ice accumulation.
I suspect it will be soarable at 9, launchable by 10 and windy around 1. I’ll update after the balloon and winds aloft forecast are posted. La Cumbre Peak was gusting into the mid teens from the NE bofore sunrise, so if it starts backing down below 10ish, it’s time to load and go. Consider launching lower or north side if your are early.
Carry survival gear and consider that if you land out it will be a long freezing cold night if you can't navigate out of the brush in the dark.
PS: my car has a hiccup, so if you are passing through Carpinteria this morning, please give me a call or leave a note.