Friday 2/17 Skyport
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:28 am
Flight Reports
http://paraglide.net/log/12/12_02-17/3_flight_articles.htm
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Pre-Dawn Synopsis for Friday. My kids are out of school. Not sure if this qualifies as a holiday, but it feels like a Saturday.
Unlike last weekend when we had slowly changing persistent conditions from day to day, the weather this extended weekend is in transition from dry high pressure offshore flow to an onshore Catalina Eddy with associated marine layer accompanied by low clouds, to prefrontal ahead of a dry cold front passing through late in the weekend. So… If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few hours and it will change.
Friday (today) may be the better opportunity if you prefer blue skies. The north wind has backed off and the flow is already trending on-shore, wafting in from the south at the Peak before dawn. The forecast is for the wind to build from the west this afternoon. There is an inversion this morning, about 10°F warmer at the Peak than the beach, so we need the inversion to break, but don’t wait too long or you may have to contend with some west wind in the afternoon. The lapse rate may actually be better at noon than 2 PM because the 6K temp is trending warmer and the onshore flow will moderate the surface heating. There is also the issue of thermal trajectory in the afternoon, and the weak thermals may be better organized ahead of the onshore flow. It may be a chore to work past Carpinteria, but if we can get to Noon Peak, the lapse rate should be getting better with more protection from the ocean. Ojai is forecasted to be 4 or 5 degrees warmer than the coast.
The Nuthouse may offer an opportunity to connect with a sea breeze front over Fillmore, but if we can get past Carp ahead of the onshore flow then launching behind SB may present a longer course.
In summary, expect it to be blowing in early, but we still need the inversion to break. If you see wind dummies going up, don’t wait for it to get better. Hopefully, we can climb and go by 10:30 or 11. It should get stronger toward noonish, but will likely lean over and get torn in the afternoon.
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8:30 am update / High clouds have arrive earlier than expected, but hopefully they won’t thicken and moderate the heating too much. Might have to bump down the expectations a notch from an already mediocre lapse rate. The wind picked up a bit from the north over the past few hours, so won’t likely launch before 11ish.
No reports of anyone hiking the Nuthouse, although it may offer an easier course with more potential if we can’t get past Carpinteria from Santa Barbara. The Eagle Van is scheduled for 10, and Ventura Pilots are meeting at Pedro (Santa Clause Lane) about 9:30. No update from the Fly Above All site yet.
http://paraglide.net/log/12/12_02-17/3_flight_articles.htm
_________________
Pre-Dawn Synopsis for Friday. My kids are out of school. Not sure if this qualifies as a holiday, but it feels like a Saturday.
Unlike last weekend when we had slowly changing persistent conditions from day to day, the weather this extended weekend is in transition from dry high pressure offshore flow to an onshore Catalina Eddy with associated marine layer accompanied by low clouds, to prefrontal ahead of a dry cold front passing through late in the weekend. So… If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few hours and it will change.
Friday (today) may be the better opportunity if you prefer blue skies. The north wind has backed off and the flow is already trending on-shore, wafting in from the south at the Peak before dawn. The forecast is for the wind to build from the west this afternoon. There is an inversion this morning, about 10°F warmer at the Peak than the beach, so we need the inversion to break, but don’t wait too long or you may have to contend with some west wind in the afternoon. The lapse rate may actually be better at noon than 2 PM because the 6K temp is trending warmer and the onshore flow will moderate the surface heating. There is also the issue of thermal trajectory in the afternoon, and the weak thermals may be better organized ahead of the onshore flow. It may be a chore to work past Carpinteria, but if we can get to Noon Peak, the lapse rate should be getting better with more protection from the ocean. Ojai is forecasted to be 4 or 5 degrees warmer than the coast.
The Nuthouse may offer an opportunity to connect with a sea breeze front over Fillmore, but if we can get past Carp ahead of the onshore flow then launching behind SB may present a longer course.
In summary, expect it to be blowing in early, but we still need the inversion to break. If you see wind dummies going up, don’t wait for it to get better. Hopefully, we can climb and go by 10:30 or 11. It should get stronger toward noonish, but will likely lean over and get torn in the afternoon.
____________________________
8:30 am update / High clouds have arrive earlier than expected, but hopefully they won’t thicken and moderate the heating too much. Might have to bump down the expectations a notch from an already mediocre lapse rate. The wind picked up a bit from the north over the past few hours, so won’t likely launch before 11ish.
No reports of anyone hiking the Nuthouse, although it may offer an easier course with more potential if we can’t get past Carpinteria from Santa Barbara. The Eagle Van is scheduled for 10, and Ventura Pilots are meeting at Pedro (Santa Clause Lane) about 9:30. No update from the Fly Above All site yet.