SCPA & SBSA Discussion Board

The NAM forecast for tomorrow

Hey John,
Given that I don't know squat about weather, is that forecast for the SB area or would that also cover Kagel?
DT

dteal wrote:Hey John,
Given that I don't know squat about weather, is that forecast for the SB area or would that also cover Kagel?
DT

It's for SB, but I would imagine that if it's good there it will be good at Kagel also. Having said that, GFS is not as bullish and there is good chance that high clouds are going to make the good lapse rate a moot point.

yeah that certainly happened today, but the clouds have cleared this evening with the passing of the front...so now it is a matter of the north west wind lying down...

Yeah, woke to clear skies, but also a low level inversion. I think I'll save the kitchen pass for another day.

John,
How low is the inversion? Might be able to launch above it at La Cumbre peak?
DT

I'll be at Parma at 10:30
DT

How do you access that NAM skew T ?
Cort

cortf wrote:How do you access that NAM skew T ?
Cort

NAM, GFS and RUC can be found here:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

Either type in the station code (SBA for Santa Barbara) or Lat/Long coordinates (Long are in negative #s)
then go to soundings.
John

GFS and NAM models are available on the AIR Resource Lab - READY forecast website:

1) go to http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php

2) type in SBA or Airport Code nearest your soaring site or Lat/Long coordinates of flying site

3) choose SOUNDING forecast data set like "NAM 40 km sounding" or GFS or RUC

4) choose date Time to plot - like next day at 10 AM - "January 12, 2010 18 UTC (+24hrs)" 21 UTC = 1PM

5) pick JAVA script duration : "24 hrs" (12-84 hour forecast available) shows rain 39 hours out

6) pick Type "Only to 400 mb" - your not flying into outer space

7) enter access code, hit "get profile"

9) hit "Advance One" to scroll thru skew-t charts one by one over forecast time period

Cutting and pasting so you don't have to. Saturday's forcast (NAM and GFS are pretty much in agreement) -- a little damp at the lower elevations and the wrong wind direction, but you never know. I know I'll be calling Debbie early and often.

John,
How's it looking now? If it looks too good, I may have to pass - don't got no oxygen...
DT