Weak Sunday 12/22

[sd]

Link to SD's Log for Sunday
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_12-22/1_weak_sunday.htm
2 flights: EJs to Stevens Park & Skyport to East Beach
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Sunny Sunday Morning Update:
The day looks better in Ojai than Santa Barbara, but SB will hopefully work good enough to plug upwind in the afternoon against a light flow from the SE.

Light haze at dawn in Carpinteria (left over moisture from Saturday's Catalina Eddy?) seems to be burning off. There is a building light offshore push forecasted. At dawn, it is draining light down the rivers, calm in the protected areas, but blowing from the east south east at La Cumbre Peak. There is a light offshore flow in the Channel. The building barometer, light offshore push, climbing temps, and lowering relative humidity should trump Saturday's eddy moisture to provide clear skis without Saturday's low stratus. If we do get a few morning low clouds, they should lift burn off by the afternoon.

The lapse rate looks significantly better in Ojai, and it would be light downwind to SB, but will require a hike. The lapse rate in SB looks weaker. Subjectively, the lapse rate in Ojai is good (mid 20s F from the surface to 6K), and OK at best in SB (low 20s from the surface to 6K). There is an inversion that will limit max altitudes, but it shouldn't come into play due to the weak lapse rate unless you are over higher terrain. The inversion is lower toward Point Conception, about 4K in SB, but lifting some during the day. We should get high enough to get over Casitas Pass if the headwind is manageable. Max altitude at the Topa Bluffs should be close to 7K

We can launch earlier in SB. Ojai has a stronger morning inversion (15 degrees colder than SB), but Ojai will heat up better in the afternoon. I'll likely pass on the solo hike and deal with the weaker lapse rate and headwind. (unless someone wants to share the Nuthouse hike. I could be easily motivated). Will likely try to launch early from the Skyport or EJs for a westbound leg before turning to slug toward Casitas Pass.

Suspect it will be soarable at the Skyport around am 10 am, and 11 at the Nuthouse.
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Improving Weekend 12/21-22
Saturday morning look at the weekend. (lot'a ones and twos?)
Sunday is looking markedly better than Saturday.
An old dog learning new tricks, I took some schooling from Southside on using the models to look ahead. The modeling graphics are a double edge sword, providing more insight, but clunky to use, so they are a huge time suck.

Saturday's forecast is showing a mediocre lapse rate under an inversion and potential wind above ridgeline in the afternoon. There is some protection down lower, but morning stratus is forming with base in the mid to high 3s and lowering.

Sunday's lapse rate looks much better up to about 55 hundred in Santa Barbara, and about 7K in Ojai. I would rate Sunday's lapse rate as decent to good, with a projected Ojai temperature spread from the surface to 6K in the mid to upper 20s F. Sunday may have a few wispy high clouds, but not thick or significant . Not seeing lower level eddy moisture on Sunday, but the soundings aren't showing it today either. Sunday is warmer down low, cooler up high, and forecasted to be dryer with a lower relative humidly. Hopefully the Catalina Eddy won't spin too much moist ocean air in from the SE. I'm optimistically going with expectations of a mostly dry high pressure day without cloud development.

The winds aloft for Sunday are also much lower than Saturday, showing light from the SE down low, and a bit more from the NE up higher. Ojai will likely be a better call, but would require climbing up to the Nuthouse. SB will likely work good enough, but it may be problematic going eastbound through Casitas Pass.
Not much wind on the water either day.

[sd]

Link to SD's Log for Sunday
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_12-22/1_weak_sunday.htm
2 flights: EJs to Stevens Park & Skyport to East Beach