Santa Anna Weekend 12/14-15

[sd]

Link to Sundowner's log for Saturday
Solo Nuthouse High Pressure Santa Anna 27 mile Fishbowl
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_12-14/1_nuthouse_santa_anna_fishbowl.htm
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Saturday morning (7:30ish) update
The weather seems to be unfolding as expected. The Santa Anna hasn't settled in yet, but the east flow is forecast to build through the day in the drain channels. The Ojai Valley and Santa Barbara should be protected from the nasty wind. Still need to get a pass from my wife (she has me scheduled to put up xmas decorations today), but I'm leaning toward driving to the Nuthouse, expecting to be at the trailhead early so I can hike slow. If anyone wants to carpool, let me know. If I can't fly today, I'll try to get out Sunday.

Out the door at 8:40 for the Nuthouse, solo.
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Friday Afternoon Update for the Weekend
After conferencing OJ and Southside, I called the ranger station several times on Thursday and Friday in an attempt to speak with the District Ranger Sue Exline. Unfortunately, Ms Exline was not in either the Ojai or Mt Pinos office Thursday or Friday, and she has not responded to my voice mail. The front desk in the Ojai office confirmed that the road is closed for the season due to rain and snow, but my contention is that the amount of moisture currently on the Nordhoff road is not jeopardizing its suitability for light traffic. Bottom line is we won't have vehicle access to the Nordhoff Ridge Road this weekend. The weather isn't exciting enough to escalate the issue to the Supervisors office on Hollister Ave. Hopefully Ms Exline will call back next week.

The Nuthouse is still a possibility. Weather wise, the forecast is for a significant Santa Anna event. A review of the models with Southside indicates the wind clocking around from the north to the east, with higher velocity toward the east. The 6K forecast is calling for NE Saturday morning, about 10 knots, then clocking around to the east. It should be warmer on Sunday at all altitudes, and perhaps a bit more wind at 6K on Sunday. The models don't agree on which day has the better lapse rate, so it's a coin toss. Expecting a temperature spread from the surface to 6K to be in the low 20sF on Saturday (ok at best and definitely not strong).

The good news for the Nuthouse is we don't need to go super early for a short course. 9:30ish at the trail head for an 11 to 11:30 launch will likely be adequate. It might be warm, but not hot on the hike. Hopefully the bugs will be suppressed after sub freezing temperatures this past week. I suspect we will be able to get high enough to navigate through Casitas Pass westbound.

SB will likely work for a midday launch to get up and out to the beach, but not so well for going east across Casitas Pass. Hopefully SB will have light wind and a little convergence boost over the high ground.

Not sure what my intentions are, but I could be motivated to get some exercise.
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Wednesday Morning Perception for the coming Weekend
The current forecast is for high clouds associated with a weak upper trough to move through on Friday, followed by a Santa Anna event starting Saturday and continuing through Tuesday. Max temps will likely be Sunday and Monday, but Saturday may have a better lapse rate before it warms up at altitude. Flow should be from the east, so we may want to launch from Nordhoff and fly back to SB. It will likely be too windy down the Santa Clara river to fool with Fillmore. FYI, its usually best to launch early from Nordhoff Peak on Santa Anna days. Too soon to call a meet time without a bus scheduled, and the timing may shift by the weekend, but we likely want to be on launch by 9:30 or 10 at the latest.

[oj]

Pine and Nordhoff are closed for the rest of the winter so bring your hiking shoes.

[dteal]

So, how was it?
DT