Sunday 12/8, lower altitude block

[sd]

Link to SD's log for Sunday
Skyport to the VOR to Saint Thomas College / 44 miles
http://paraglide.net/log/13/13_12-08/1_skyport_to_vor_to_st_thomas.htm

Sunday morning update
Looking like a narrow window between the wind backing off and the approaching high to mid level clouds shutting off our energy source. A strong jet is still directly overhead with 100 knot winds at 34K, but there is also a sharp inversion about 5K. Normally we get vertical mixing that pulls the upper wind down on post frontal days, but today looks like there will be more separation due to the pronounced inversion. Don't expect to get much over 5K, and the inversion zone is likely to have some unpleasant gradient turbulence.

Debbie is backing down quickly. Blowing from the east about 10ish at dawn, and only 8ish at 7:45. La Cumbre Peak is at freezing level. Montecito is warmer with light wind from the south about 5ish.

Recommend an early go for the Skyport. Not expecting much wind on the water, so Bates may not be an option. I still don't have a ride (and no vehicle), but could take the bus to East Beach. Eagle and FAA haven't posted meet times yet.
8:30 update: taking the 8:40 number 20 to Milpas and Montecito and thumbing from there. _______________________________
Saturday night prognosis for Sunday
Was out of town all week and just got back tonight, so I haven't been watching the local weather closely. Upon inspection, it appears that it blew nasty hard post frontal today (Saturday). Looks like the our neighborhood was under the west side of a bend in the jet today. Extra strong headwinds at altitude made for slow westbound flights across the country. I suspect westbound travelers from the east coast won't fare much better on Sunday, but we may have a window as everything slides east. The current forecast for Sunday afternoon is predicting 100 knot winds at 40K, but only in the low to mid teens down at 6K for SB, and L&V for 3K. The lapse rate is strong (but not super strong), so I suspect our front range will likely block. Debbie may be blowing hard OTB at dawn, but watch to see if it starts backing down as the sun beams take aim. Although the temperature spread from the surface to 6K is only forecasted to be in the mid twenties F, the air mass is cold, so there will likely be puddle temperatures well over 55F, resulting in strong cores. It may not be a good day for unsupervised P2s.

I don't have a car, so if you are driving up the coast through Carpinteria, perhaps you could post or give me a call. The Coastal Express drops off at East Beach, but not until 10. The MTD number 20 bus turns up Milpas from the beach about 10 past 9.

[cortfly]

Turned out to be pretty good, courtesy of a nice lapse rate and a period of blue sky. Hitched a ride to skyport/eliminator ( I think we should just call it eliminator, sounds so bad ass) with John L, Spencer, and Mike H. Nobody else showed at Parma, too much holiday party ?? . Truax had hitch hiked his way to Parma, where Irene picked him up, and was already over the RR. Irene launched as we got there, and followed SD. John and Spence decided do bags rather than hanglide,( decisions, decisions...) and took off to the west. I got up to about 5K over the RR in spanky air and took it to Elings with a good tailwind. Don't know where the rest of the crew ended up, although I think I picked up a radio communication from SD saying he was over the powerlines and heading back to his house in Carp. Probably landed in the street...