Sun 9/22 Post Frontal

[sd]

Post Day Review
Was hoping and ready, but never left the yard all day.

We've benefited from continued growth in the number of reporting stations accessible via web links, but most of the data is typically an hour old. Some stations report an average while others indicate peak gust or both. Despite all the data available on-line, I still want a better picture. On a day like Sunday, I watch the tree tops for signs of advancing west wind before it shows up on the web, which for Bates, might be too late.

Carpinteria was light from the SE on paper all day, but the tree tops showed occasional gusto, I suspect the intermittent wiggle was thermal draw. There was a good temperature differential between the surface and 3K, but it blew OTB from the NE along the mountain ridge all day. Wilcox might have worked, but I don't have fudge factors for all the new SB reporting stations.

PS: Partially due to the availability of all the new weather reporting stations, when I can make time, I'd like to upgrade the weather page with selectable link list based on season and local, but I need to learn beginner level JavaScript first so the collapsible list will work in something other than older versions of IE (9.0 and below). We now have way more stations than will fit in a single list. I'd also like to make a small screen version. I suspect within a few years most of us will be flying with a tablet computer or two with ample screen real-estate enabling in-flight access to weather station data. My current method is to radio someone on the ground and ask them to make a phone call to someone at home who can look up Fillmore to see if it is blowing upriver or offshore.
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Noon Update:
Doesn't look like it blocked in the mountains with the ridge line still gusting over 20 from the NE. Wilcox looks like it might have had a window, but is now gusting over 20 from the SW. It's still fairly calm in Carpinteria, light from the SSE. The wind mid channel has picked up some, but still gusting less than 20. It is gusting over 30 in the further out and around Point Conception.

Hopefully, the wind will move down the coast and offer a window at Bates, but it may be another tease day. The Oxnard plain is about 6 to 10 from the SW at noon.
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At 9:30, the wind is backing down in the channel, but building on the ridge line, gusting to 24 at La Cumbre Peak. Not good indicators for either the mountains or Bates. Perhaps Wilcox will offer a window, but I'll tend to chores around the house for now.
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8:15 perception:
The Fall Equinox will occur at 4:44 PM today, so it's technically still summer until later this afternoon. We had our first cold front of the season sweep through late yesterday. Its post frontal this morning with the typical gusto... cold air mass down low... north wind at the ridge line and around Point Conception.

The wind is forecast to back off some, and then build again tonight from the NE. The lapse rate is actually kind of flat, but not inverted. The air mass down below 6K is cool, so with plenty of sunshine and heating, we should have a strong temperature differential assisting thermal activity, but the thermals likely won't go too high due to the wind above and the lack of lapse rate.

There may be a block down below ridge line, but it is still blowing OTB from the NE along the ridge with gust to 20 at 8:15. It was gusting to 30 an hour earlier.

Bates may work, but the channel wind is forecast to back down some and then build again later. Bates can be a tease. It's currently calm down low and blowing into the high teens mid channel, with stronger wind further out and around Point conception

I'd like to consider the mountains if the block continues to strengthen, possibly launching lower. No crew, but if it continues to block, I'll head north from Carpinteria about 9:30 and try to thumb up to one of the launches off Gibraltar Road. I suspect peak thermal block may be late morning, but I need to allot extra time to beg a ride uphill.