1st Spring Weekend 2023

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Friday evening look at the coming Weekend

It looks dry through the weekend with some potential for high clouds later in the day on Sunday and then more so on Monday

This past Tuesday and Wednesday were wet. Thursday was post frontal with strong wind.

Today, (Friday) the wind continued to be an issue as high pressure built but it blocked down at the lower altitudes. The lapse rate was robust up to about 5K with a mild capping inversion. Bates worked all day while the mountains were more advanced.

Tomorrow (Saturday) remains cold at altitude. The lapse rate starts out weak but gets better through the day as the surface warms. The north wind blocks some mid-day but builds at our mountain soaring altitudes later in the day with more wind to the west squeezing around Point Conception, and some protection form the wind toward the east. The capping inversion is significantly weaker. Capping inversions often provide some protection at the lower altitudes from the stronger winds aloft.
Bates does not look very promising on Saturday for benching back across the freeway to Rincon Mountain (based on Windy.com).
Ojai (the Nuthouse?) looks better protected from the wind than SB with a robust afternoon lapse rate that should block the north wind below ridgeline. The wind block is most pronounced between Ojai and Fillmore. Further east the north wind funnels through the Tejon Pass (Interstate 5)

Sunday continues to look windy in our local mountains with better protection from Ojai east toward Fillmore.
Bates is looking possible Sunday afternoon based on Windy, but Bates often ignores the forecast models.
Some initial potential for high clouds later in the day on Sunday then more so on Monday.

Fillmore looks like it might be better for P2 pilots this weekend compared to SB due to less wind?
The Nuthouse will likely offer more XC potential but could be a P3 scenario? (and requires a 1000 foot vertical hike). The Nuthouse is quite low and blocks pretty good. It blocks a NE better than a NW. This wind event is mostly N to NW with some wrapping NE in places. Flights from the Nuthouse to Fillmore look reliable through the weekend but you might not be able to get an early start.
Our Santa Barbara mountains might be ok for those seeking some rock and roll action? Advantage HGs, and possibly seasoned PG pilots on fast gliders? SB does offer north side launches (the Brotherhood).

Monday starts to see some flow from the east at our middle soaring altitudes along with some building potential for high clouds. Flights back to SB from Ojai and maybe Fillmore look possible.