Pre-Thanksgiving Weekend 2020

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Pre-Thanksgiving Weekend 2020

Postby sd » Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:29 am

Sunday Morning Update

Today (Sunday) is a transition day from yesterday’s light offshore Santa Anna to increasing onshore flow. Looks like the day has potential, but recommend going early.

The bulk of the high clouds have moveed off to the south, but there are still some remnants and with the low sun angles this time of year even wispy high clouds can significantly reduce the solar heating, so they are a wild card. As with the past couple of days, there is more potential to thicken mid-day as the atmosphere expands with associated lifting and cooling aloft, but hopefully less than yesterday.

The lapse rate is better on paper compared to Friday and Saturday; however, the onshore flow should quench and cool the lower altitudes. With increasing wind from the west as the day ages, the Santa Barbara range will likely work better earlier than later. Down low, the skew-t forecast is showing a better lapse rate earlier then trending weaker mid-day. If you can get across Casitas Pass into Ojai there should be more protection from the west flow and the associated marine air. Ojai is forecasted to be 5 degrees warmer than Santa Barbara.

Might be a difficult day for an out and return due to the increasing west wind (but nothing Carter couldn’t handle?), increasing into the upper single digits. Much less west flow off to the east which is still draining light down the Santa Clara until this afternoon when the onshore flow overpowers the drainage.

If you choose to launch from the ridgeline mid-day, West La Cumbre might be a better option than EJ.

Monday (Tomorrow) looks windy from the north up high, likely too much for PGs in the mountains, especially from the higher launches?
Saturday Morning Perception

Good flying weather in the local Santa Barbara and Ojai mountains this weekend. The lapse rate is on the weak side but the winds are light. There will be some high clouds to contend with. The weekend forecast is not looking as robust as the projections from a couple days ago. Not much wind on the water, so the coastal cliffs look iffy, but Elings should be good for training and might offer a window for the soaring pilots.

Today (Saturday: The base lapse rate looks similar to yesterday (Friday) but the high clouds are thinner, so the effective lapse rate should be better due to higher surface temperature.

All the mountain launches should work. L&V at ridgeline early and not much wind mid-channel. EJ looks like a good option early. Down lower at the Skyport it appears to improve a tad by mid-day. Should still be flyable later in the day when West La Cumber will likely be a good option. Ojai will be a little more robust if you are willing to hike, but not a stellar day. Pine looks more robust than Ojai as the lapse rate improves above 6K, but you will likely need to use the north launch and the altitude only goes to about 9K, but that might be enough to get back to the front range.

There is weak offshore Santa Anna Flow down the Santa Clara River.

Sunday: The lapse rate improves a little and perhaps thinner high clouds. The west pushes through more as the Santa Anna fades so expect a bit more wind from the west as the day ages.

Monday looks like some north wind returns as trough moves through.
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